Control of the Senate appears likely to flip from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party this fall, as one of the nation’s most endangered Democrats, Sen. Jon Tester of Montana, trails his Republican challenger in his bid for reelection, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College.

Tester, who first won election to the Senate in 2006, is winning over moderate and independent voters and running far ahead of the Democrat at the top of the ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris. But that does not appear to be enough to survive in Montana, a conservative state where former President Donald Trump is ahead by 17 percentage points and where control of the Senate hangs in the balance.

Tim Sheehy, a wealthy Republican businessperson and a former Navy SEAL who has never held public office, leads Tester 52% to 44%, the poll shows. Sheehy’s lead is a 7-point advantage without rounding.

Related Story: Poll Finds Harris Rising as She Challenges Trump on Change

Republicans Just Need a Couple of Seats

Democrats currently hold a 51-seat Senate majority. But with Republicans already set to pick up a seat after the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.Va., who caucuses with Democrats, the party cannot afford to lose additional seats.

In fact, the party’s only hope is to secure a 50-50 split and to have Harris win the White House, allowing her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, to provide the crucial tiebreaking vote as vice president.

At least seven other Democratic-held Senate seats are competitive this fall, including in the presidential battlegrounds of Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin. In late September, a series of Times/Siena surveys in four of those races, as well as in Ohio, found Democrats ahead, though narrowly in some cases.

The problem is that the Democratic Party has scarce opportunities to flip any Republican-held seats in 2024 to make up for any potential losses, such as in Montana.

The best opportunity, according to new Times/Siena polling, may be in Texas, which Democrats have long dreamed of flipping but where they have fallen well short in recent years. Sen. Ted Cruz, a Republican seeking his third term, leads his Democratic challenger, Rep. Colin Allred, 48% to 44%, according to a Times/Siena poll in Texas.

And in Florida, a Times/Siena poll found that Sen. Rick Scott, the Republican incumbent, is comfortably ahead of Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, his Democratic rival, by an even wider margin, 49% to 40%.

Both Cruz and Scott lead by smaller margins in their states than Trump is ahead of Harris.

A third potentially competitive Republican-held seat has emerged in recent weeks, though the reelection bid of Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., was not included in the polls. Fischer is running against an independent, Dan Osborn, and Republicans have recently come to her campaign’s aid with advertising.

Related Story: Harris, Trump in Dead Heat Across Key Battleground States, New Polls Show

Money in Montana Has Been Flooding for Senate Race

In Montana, money has been flooding the state for months. With a population of around 1.1 million, Montana is set to see more than $265 million in television spending related to the Senate race, according to AdImpact, the ad-tracking service.

Republicans have circled Tester’s race as a top priority in 2024 largely because the state has become so solidly Republican in national politics. Trump won there with 57% of the vote in 2020 — the same percentage he was pulling in the poll.

Tester, with his flattop haircut and seven fingers — he lost three digits in a meat-grinding accident as a child — has successfully carved out a distinctive image that has long allowed him to outrun his party label and win reelection in 2012 and 2018.

This year, Republicans are hoping to make the Senate race in Montana a national partisan referendum. In the poll, 55% of likely voters said they would prefer that Republicans control the Senate, compared with only 37% who prefer Democratic control.

As of now, the poll found that Tester was winning the support of only 6% of Republicans. Tester trails his challenger even though he was favored over Sheehy by independent voters and viewed more favorably by them.

In Montana, Harris is viewed unfavorably by 60% of likely voters, who trusted Trump more than her on every issue tested, including the economy, immigration, abortion, democracy and helping the working class.

In a sign of the state’s partisan tilt and the uphill battle for Tester, even independent voters there said they preferred that Republicans control the Senate in 2025.

In the Montana governor’s race, Trump’s edge over Harris (57% to 40%) was similar to the lead of Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte over his Democratic challenger, Ryan Busse (57% to 35%).

For Tester, the steady barrage of negative ads about him appears to have affected his image, with 47% viewing him favorably and 50% unfavorably.

All three new Times/Siena polls — in Montana, Texas and Florida — showed fresh evidence of a trend that has been the case across the map this year: Republican Senate candidates are running behind Trump.

In all three states, the gender gap was working in the GOP’s favor. Men favored the Republicans by a wider margin than women favored the Democratic candidates.

Interestingly, immigration was tied with the economy as the most pressing issue for voters in Montana — while it was significantly behind the economy as the most important issue for voters in Texas and Florida, two states that are more traditionally associated with the topic, even if Montana borders Canada.

–

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

By Shane Goldmacher/Louise Johns
c. 2024 The New York Times Company