Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
Biden’s Lead With Women Is Smaller Than Trump’s With Men, a Warning for Democrats
d8a347b41db1ddee634e2d67d08798c102ef09ac
By The New York Times
Published 5 months ago on
June 20, 2024

President Joe Biden meets supporters after speaking at a campaign office in Reno, Nev. on March 19, 2024. A new poll of female voters finds that concerns about inflation are still paramount, even as abortion could motivate Democratic women in states where the issue is on the ballot. (Tom Brenner/The New York Times)

Share

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

Almost every path to victory for President Joe Biden relies on strong support from women. But his current standing among women is the weakest lead a Democrat has had since 2004, a key factor in how tight the race is.

Biden’s Lead With Women Slid

Biden’s lead among women has slid to about 8 percentage points since the 2020 election, according to an average of more than 30 polls conducted over the last six months and compiled by The New York Times. That’s down from a lead among women of about 13 percentage points four years ago.

And since the 2020 election, former President Donald Trump’s support among men has recovered and is back to the double-digit lead he had in 2016.

Republicans have generally held leads among men in most presidential elections going back decades. But every year that Democrats have won the presidency, they have led among women by more.

Biden’s drop in support has been particularly pronounced among Black and Hispanic women, according to a new set of polls focused on women across the country and in Arizona and Michigan from KFF, a nonprofit organization that focuses on health care research.

The surveys show that even as abortion and democracy are key issues for a small but meaningful segment of women, concerns about inflation continue to play a more central role in the race and to benefit Trump.

Abortion Seems to Be a Motivating Factor to Vote Biden

In states where abortion is on the ballot, however, the KFF polls offer some evidence for the Democratic theory that the issue will be a motivating factor that drives women to vote.

Biden’s support among women is still somewhat more resilient than his support among men, which has fallen further, particularly among young men and men without a college degree. And Democratic strategists insist that traditionally Democratic constituencies, including women and Black voters, will return to Biden’s side as the race goes on.

Still, Biden’s current struggles with Black and Hispanic women are especially striking. He is winning among Black women in the KFF survey by 58 percentage points, but that represents a significant drop from his 86 percentage point margin among Black women in the approach to the 2020 election, according to an average of New York Times/Siena College polls from that election. Biden’s lead with Hispanic women has also shrunk substantially, to about 12 points. The survey found Biden’s lead among women overall to be 4 points.

“Once the campaign kicks into high gear, abortion will rally the women,” said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who has been studying women’s voting behavior for decades. “And as much as Trump wants to right-size himself, he can’t stop himself from bragging about how he overturned Roe v. Wade.”

In states like Arizona, where abortion is restricted and may be on the ballot in the fall, Democratic women were more motivated to vote than in states where abortion access was not at risk, the KFF surveys found. Among Republican women, there was no difference in motivation.

In Michigan, which voted to affirm abortion rights in 2022, Biden is performing slightly worse among women compared with Arizona, noted Ashley Kirzinger, the associate director for polling at KFF.

“It’s not just that Biden is more popular in Arizona — he’s not,” Kirzinger said. “Michigan women are no longer worried about abortion access, and Biden does worse in that scenario.”

Abortion Voters Tend to Be Younger

Abortion-focused voters tend to be younger and whiter than women overall, the KFF polls found. They approve of how Biden is handling abortion and would like to see him reelected.

But the much larger group of women who say inflation is essential to their vote might decide this election.

“Women are not single-issue thinkers,” said Kellyanne Conway, a Republican pollster, Trump’s former campaign manager and a co-author, with Lake, of a book detailing the political desires of women. “Therefore, they are not single-issue voters.”

“Joe Biden and the Democrats seem to only talk to women from the waist down, since abortion is the only issue Joe Biden has an edge on in the polls,” Conway added.

Inflation voters are more likely to be Black or Hispanic than women overall. They are more likely to be middle-aged. In Michigan, nearly 60% of Black women say inflation is the most important issue to their vote. A similar share of Hispanic women in Arizona say the same. For these women, inflation blows all other issues out of the water.

Financially Better Under Trump

Overall, twice as many women say they were better off financially under Trump, the KFF surveys found. Young women, a key constituency that Democrats are hoping to retain this cycle, were nearly three times as likely to say things were better for them financially under Trump than Biden. Even so, 41% of young women said there was no difference between their financial situation between the two candidates. Half of Black women also said there was no difference.

This trend of Democratic success with women is relatively modern. In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan and then George H.W. Bush won majorities of both men and women. But in the last 20 years, it has been rare for a Democrat to fall below a double-digit lead with women. The last Democrat to end a campaign with a single-digit lead among women was John Kerry in 2004.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

Ruth Igielnik/Tom Brenner
c.2024 The New York Times Company
Distributed by The New York Times Licensing Group

RELATED TOPICS:

DON'T MISS

CHP Car Struck by Drunk Driver While Investigating Another Crash

DON'T MISS

Fresno Man Ejected From Car Dies Off McKinley Avenue

DON'T MISS

‘Leave It the Way It Is’: Off-Roaders, Hikers React to Proposal to Change 1.4M Acres of Sierra Forest

DON'T MISS

Yankees Retain Cole, Add $36 Million Extension to Keep Ace

DON'T MISS

5 Reasons Early Voting Is Overwhelmed With Falsehoods

DON'T MISS

Christian McCaffrey Returns to Practice for the 49ers From Achilles Tendon Injury

DON'T MISS

California Sues LA Suburb for Temporary Ban of Homeless Shelters

DON'T MISS

You May Have Blocked Someone on X but Now They Can See Your Public Posts Anyway

DON'T MISS

Some Republican-Led States Refuse to Let Justice Department Monitors Into Polling Places

DON'T MISS

Fresno Police Arrest Suspect in Fatal NW Apartment Shooting

UP NEXT

Fresno Man Ejected From Car Dies Off McKinley Avenue

UP NEXT

‘Leave It the Way It Is’: Off-Roaders, Hikers React to Proposal to Change 1.4M Acres of Sierra Forest

UP NEXT

Yankees Retain Cole, Add $36 Million Extension to Keep Ace

UP NEXT

5 Reasons Early Voting Is Overwhelmed With Falsehoods

UP NEXT

Christian McCaffrey Returns to Practice for the 49ers From Achilles Tendon Injury

UP NEXT

California Sues LA Suburb for Temporary Ban of Homeless Shelters

UP NEXT

You May Have Blocked Someone on X but Now They Can See Your Public Posts Anyway

UP NEXT

Some Republican-Led States Refuse to Let Justice Department Monitors Into Polling Places

UP NEXT

Fresno Police Arrest Suspect in Fatal NW Apartment Shooting

UP NEXT

Fresno Murder Suspect Stopped in Las Vegas, Others Wanted

Yankees Retain Cole, Add $36 Million Extension to Keep Ace

11 hours ago

5 Reasons Early Voting Is Overwhelmed With Falsehoods

11 hours ago

Christian McCaffrey Returns to Practice for the 49ers From Achilles Tendon Injury

11 hours ago

California Sues LA Suburb for Temporary Ban of Homeless Shelters

12 hours ago

You May Have Blocked Someone on X but Now They Can See Your Public Posts Anyway

12 hours ago

Some Republican-Led States Refuse to Let Justice Department Monitors Into Polling Places

12 hours ago

Fresno Police Arrest Suspect in Fatal NW Apartment Shooting

12 hours ago

Fresno Murder Suspect Stopped in Las Vegas, Others Wanted

13 hours ago

Trump’s Crowds Are Dwindling as His Campaign Winds Down

13 hours ago

Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on Mexico to Curb Immigration

14 hours ago

CHP Car Struck by Drunk Driver While Investigating Another Crash

A driver suspected of being under the influence crashed into a California Highway Patrol car early Sunday, officials said. Officers were inv...

8 hours ago

A driver suspected of DUI crashed into a parked California Highway Patrol car at a fatal crash scene in Fresno County, sustaining minor injuries and later being cited. (Fresno County SO)
8 hours ago

CHP Car Struck by Drunk Driver While Investigating Another Crash

fresno
9 hours ago

Fresno Man Ejected From Car Dies Off McKinley Avenue

9 hours ago

‘Leave It the Way It Is’: Off-Roaders, Hikers React to Proposal to Change 1.4M Acres of Sierra Forest

New York Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole throws against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning in Game 5 of the baseball World Series, Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024, in New York. (AP/Ashley Landis)
11 hours ago

Yankees Retain Cole, Add $36 Million Extension to Keep Ace

Voters cast their ballots at Desert Breeze Community Center in Las Vegas during the last day of in-person early voting in Nevada on Friday, Nov. 1, 2024. Nearly 75 million people have cast early ballots, making their voices heard amid worry about the process, the outcome and democracy itself. (Bridget Bennett/The New York Times)
11 hours ago

5 Reasons Early Voting Is Overwhelmed With Falsehoods

11 hours ago

Christian McCaffrey Returns to Practice for the 49ers From Achilles Tendon Injury

12 hours ago

California Sues LA Suburb for Temporary Ban of Homeless Shelters

12 hours ago

You May Have Blocked Someone on X but Now They Can See Your Public Posts Anyway

Search

Send this to a friend