In the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, Donald J. Trump is leading President Biden in five out of six key battleground states, according to recent polls conducted by The New York Times and Siena College. The polls reveal a significant level of dissatisfaction with Biden’s performance, particularly in relation to the economy, foreign policy, and immigration.
The polls indicate that Trump is ahead of Biden by four to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Biden only leads in Wisconsin, by a slim margin of two percentage points.
The survey also reveals a growing discontent among voters, with a majority stating that Biden’s policies have negatively impacted them personally. Furthermore, the multiracial and multigenerational coalition that helped elect Biden appears to be weakening.
The polls also highlight a significant shift in support among demographic groups that previously backed Biden. For instance, Biden’s lead among voters under 30 and Hispanic voters has dwindled to single digits. Additionally, his advantage in urban areas is half of Trump’s lead in rural regions.
Despite facing multiple criminal indictments, Trump’s popularity appears to be on the rise. If the current poll results hold true in the 2024 election, Trump could potentially secure over 300 Electoral College votes, well above the 270 required to win the presidency.
Biden, who will turn 81 this month, faces significant challenges due to concerns about his age and mental acuity. A staggering 71 percent of respondents stated that he was “too old” to be an effective president.
The polls also reveal that voters trust Trump more than Biden on key issues such as the economy, immigration, and national security. Despite Biden’s efforts to promote his economic record, only 2 percent of voters rated the economy as excellent.
However, Biden still has a year to turn things around. His campaign is well-funded and will aim to address his demographic weaknesses. Despite his current low approval ratings, Biden’s advisers have noted that the Democrats managed to limit their losses in the 2022 midterms.
The New York Times/Siena College polls were conducted by telephone from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3, 2023, and included 3,662 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Read more at The New York Times.