A new PPIC poll shows that if the recall election were held today, Gov. Gavin Newsom would fend off the challenge.

“Forty percent would vote yes to remove Newsom if a special election to recall the governor were held today, with Republicans far more likely to vote yes,” said Mark Baldassare,  president and CEO of the Public Policy Institute of California. “The share who would now vote to remove the governor is similar to the 38% who did not vote for Newsom in the fall of 2018.”

Newsom garnered 56% support from the poll respondents.

To succeed, the recall effort needs majority support. A major challenge for recall organizers is that 46.2% of California voters are Democrats compared to 24.1% for Republicans.

The poll was conducted March 14-23 and involved 1,706 California adults. The sampling error is plus-or-minus 3.3%.

Recall Support Strongest in Central Valley

Central Valley and Inland Empire residents indicated the strongest support for recalling the first-term governor at 49% and 47% respectively. In contrast, the recall had 27% support from Bay Area residents.

The question of booting Newsom from office reflects California’s partisan divide, according to the poll. Republicans showed 79% support for the recall while 42% of independents and 15% of Democrats said they would vote yes.

The recall will take place if election officials verify at least 1,495,709 signatures from registered voters by April 29. Recall backers say they turned in 2,117,730 signatures at the March 17 deadline. If the recall qualifies, the election would take place in mid-November or early December.

California is among 20 states with a gubernatorial recall process. In 2003, Gov. Gray Davis was recalled and replaced by actor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

You can read Baldassare’s five takeaways from the poll at this link.

Overwhelming Support for Path to Citizenship

Other highlights of the PPIC poll:

— 74% of Californians say that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is over.

—  75%  support the $7.6 billion COVID-19 relief package that Newsom signed in late February. In addition, 73% approve of President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion federal relief package.

— 85% back a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants meeting certain requirements.

— 90% say that housing affordability is a big problem or somewhat of a problem in their part of the state.


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