Fresno County’s COVID-19 Tracker Shows a 41% Drop in Case Positivity Since Early January

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many non-math majors to figure out trends, statistics, abnormalities, and anomalies over the past 10 months. There are so many websites, databases, and COVID-tracker projects that it can all be a bit mind numbing.

But, every so often there’s a stand out graphic everyone can understand and even get behind.

The Fresno Unified School District sent out a simple but powerful image on its social media accounts Tuesday afternoon that drives home the point that COVID-19 numbers are dropping in Fresno County. They re-posted an image put out by the Fresno County Department of Public Health.

On January 12th, Fresno County’s COVID-19 case positivity rate was 19.% percent.

Fast forward to Tuesday and that number is down to 11.4%.

Using an online calculator shows that’s a 41.24% drop in COVID positivity in about 3 weeks.

But, that’s not the only significant drop. Cases per 100,000 people fell off substantially.

• January 12: 76.0 cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 residents
• February 2: 41.4 cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 residents

Gov. Gavin Newsom pointed to the state’s improving trend during a Wednesday news conference.

“Everything that should be up is up, everything that should be down is down,” said Newsom. He says California is down from 60,000 COVID-19 cases a day to just 10,000 a day. The 7-day positivity rate is down from 14.3% to 6.1% with hospitalizations, people in ICUs dropping steadily.

Hi #FUSDFamily! Check out the latest COVID numbers for our county. We're so glad to see the sharp downturn continuing – thank you to our community for making this happen! We still have a ways to go, but it's good to see us on the right track. #ProtectTheFUSDFamily pic.twitter.com/ggMXHNYYrF

— Fresno Unified (@fresnounified) February 2, 2021

California Department of Public Health

Dr. Mark Ghaly, California secretary of health and human services, showed a few more numbers to bolster those by FUSD during his midday briefing Tuesday.

• COVID hospitalizations have decreased 28.8% over the last 14 days
• COVID ICU hospitalizations have decreased 18.9% over the last 14 days

Ghaly says projections for the San Joaquin Valley show a projected ICU capacity of 35.1% by March 1st.

Dr. Mark Ghaly shows a graphic during his Tuesday briefing with reporters showing ICU capacity projections looking better across the state by March 1. (CA. Dept. of Public Health YouTube)

Super Bowl Concerns

With COVID-19 numbers heading in a more positive direction, Ghaly is warning people about the upcoming Super Bowl weekend.

He points back to last year when the Los Angeles Dodgers and Lakers both played in championships that created opportunities for mass gatherings. “That was the beginning of a surge that led to a lot of death in California. A really hard and dark period.”

Ghaly says the Thanksgiving holiday played a large role, as well, with many large gatherings leading to the spread of COVID-19.

“We now have another opportunity to keep our guard up and prevent the beginning of another story of increased cases,” said Ghaly. “We want to make sure that this Super Bowl does not become that next big spread event.”