Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
Walters: GOP Congressional Wins Set Stage for 2022
dan_walters
By Dan Walters, CalMatters Commentary
Published 3 years ago on
December 2, 2020

Share

It is remarkable — even amazing — that as Democrat Joe Biden rang up a nearly 2-to-1 victory over Republican President Donald Trump in California this year, Trump’s party regained four of the seven congressional seats it lost two years ago.

California’s outcome was a big share of the Democrats’ nationwide loss of congressional seats that reduced them to a bare majority.

Dan Walters

Opinion

The GOP comeback was solidified this week when the last few votes were counted in the 25th Congressional District, one of the state’s most contentious political arenas in suburban Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

In 2018, Democrat Katie Hill ousted Republican Congressman Steve Knight in the 25th district, one of seven GOP-held seats to flip that year in a wave of anti-Trump voting. But Hill became enmeshed in a scandal over her personal conduct and resigned.

Republican Mike Garcia, a former Navy pilot, recaptured the seat for the GOP in a special election, defeating Democratic Assemblywoman Christy Smith, and the two squared off again this year. This week, in the final count, Garcia eked out a paper-thin victory, just a few hundred votes.

Two of the GOP’s congressional comeback wins came in Orange County, where Republicans Young Kim and Michelle Steel defeated one-term Democrats Gil Cisneros and Harley Rouda.

The Fourth Republican Comeback Was in the San Joaquin Valley’s 21st Congressional District

Historically, the county has been solid Republican territory but Democrats have been making inroads lately. Democrat Hillary Clinton won it in 2016, the first Democrat to do so in 80 years, and Biden won it this year.

The fourth Republican comeback was in the San Joaquin Valley’s 21st Congressional District, where former Congressman David Valadao narrowly defeated Democrat TJ Cox, who had ousted Valadao two years earlier.

Of course, what happened this year merely sets the stage for 2022’s election, when Trump will be gone and outcomes will be even less predictable.

For one thing, we don’t even know how many seats California will have after the 2020 census is complete.

Demographers believe it’s likely that California’s slow population growth could reduce its allotment, now 53 seats, by one or two. However, it could lose even more if the U.S. Supreme Court, in a case that was argued just this week, supports Trump’s position that undocumented immigrants should be excluded from congressional seat calculations.

California is home to as many as three million undocumented immigrants and traditionally the decennial census has included them, along with citizens and legal immigrants, in the complete count used to determine the number of each state’s congressional seats.

We Do Know That California Will Play a Significant Role in Determining Which Party Controls Congress

Were undocumented residents excluded, it would translate into roughly three fewer seats for California, on top of the one or two seats the state might lose due to its overall slow population growth.

That’s why California Attorney General Xavier Becerra has joined the Supreme Court battle over Trump’s directive.

“For hundreds of years, the U.S. Constitution has been clear: everyone counts,” Becerra said in a statement. “Here in California, we know that fundamental value extends beyond the census. No matter the color of your skin or where you come from, you count.”

However many seats California winds up having, their districts will be redrawn by a 14-member independent commission with five Democrats, five Republicans and four independents, and its first foray into redistricting a decade ago proved that its actions are not predictable.

We may not know how many congressional seats California will have in 2022, and we don’t know the shape of those districts. However, we do know that California will, as it did in 2018 and this year, play a significant role in determining which party controls Congress.

[activecampaign form=19]

DON'T MISS

FUSD Trustees Name Misty Her as Interim Superintendent. National Search Yet to Start

DON'T MISS

Gov. Newsom Appoints Judges for Fresno, Merced Counties

DON'T MISS

Assemblymember Soria Dodges Questions About Defamation Lawsuit

DON'T MISS

Israel Briefs US on Evacuation Plan for Palestinians Ahead of Planned Rafah Assault

DON'T MISS

Canadian Police Make 3 Arrests in Sikh Separatist’s Slaying That Sparked a Spat with India

DON'T MISS

Three Arrested for Trespassing, Posting Flyers at Fresno Synagogue and Church

DON'T MISS

As They Search for a Superintendent, Fresno Trustees Flunk Econ 101

DON'T MISS

Universities Negotiate End to Protests, Open Dialogue on Investment Policies

DON'T MISS

Fresno Approves Hydrogen Contract for New Buses. How Far is the Filling Station?

DON'T MISS

Heavy Rains Over Texas Have Led to Water Rescues, School Cancellations and Orders to Evacuate

UP NEXT

How to Reclaim the Israel-Palestine Debate From the Radicals on Both Sides

UP NEXT

Lagging Revenue Drives California Budget Deficit as Deadline Nears

UP NEXT

Enough With the Excuses. Are You Part of the Problem With Fresno’s Public Education?

UP NEXT

New Battlegrounds Emerge in California’s Political Guerrilla War Over Housing

UP NEXT

Is the ‘Scholasticide’ in Gaza Spreading to the United States?

UP NEXT

As California Cracks Down on Groundwater, What Happens to Fallowed Farmland?

UP NEXT

California Charter School Battles Intensify as Education Finances Get Squeezed

UP NEXT

Trita Parsi: Blind Support for Israel Erodes Western Democracies

UP NEXT

Key Questions About CA Budget Deficit Unanswered as Deadlines Loom

UP NEXT

Legislation Pandering to Tribal Casinos Is a Bad Bet for Fresno Cardroom Employees

Israel Briefs US on Evacuation Plan for Palestinians Ahead of Planned Rafah Assault

4 hours ago

Canadian Police Make 3 Arrests in Sikh Separatist’s Slaying That Sparked a Spat with India

4 hours ago

Three Arrested for Trespassing, Posting Flyers at Fresno Synagogue and Church

4 hours ago

As They Search for a Superintendent, Fresno Trustees Flunk Econ 101

5 hours ago

Universities Negotiate End to Protests, Open Dialogue on Investment Policies

5 hours ago

Fresno Approves Hydrogen Contract for New Buses. How Far is the Filling Station?

7 hours ago

Heavy Rains Over Texas Have Led to Water Rescues, School Cancellations and Orders to Evacuate

7 hours ago

Google, Justice Department Make Final Arguments About Whether Search Engine is a Monopoly

7 hours ago

Anchovy Feast Draws the Most Sea Lions to SF’s Fisherman’s Wharf in 15 Years

8 hours ago

Captain Sentenced to 4 Years for Criminal Negligence in Fiery Deaths of 34 Aboard Scuba Boat

8 hours ago

FUSD Trustees Name Misty Her as Interim Superintendent. National Search Yet to Start

In a show of unity that has been absent in the Fresno Unified boardroom for more than a month, trustees voted 7-0 to appoint Deputy Superint...
Local Education /

52 mins ago

Local Education /
52 mins ago

FUSD Trustees Name Misty Her as Interim Superintendent. National Search Yet to Start

3 hours ago

Gov. Newsom Appoints Judges for Fresno, Merced Counties

3 hours ago

Assemblymember Soria Dodges Questions About Defamation Lawsuit

4 hours ago

Israel Briefs US on Evacuation Plan for Palestinians Ahead of Planned Rafah Assault

4 hours ago

Canadian Police Make 3 Arrests in Sikh Separatist’s Slaying That Sparked a Spat with India

4 hours ago

Three Arrested for Trespassing, Posting Flyers at Fresno Synagogue and Church

5 hours ago

As They Search for a Superintendent, Fresno Trustees Flunk Econ 101

5 hours ago

Universities Negotiate End to Protests, Open Dialogue on Investment Policies

MENU

CONNECT WITH US

Search

Send this to a friend