Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

Neptune to Launch a Creator-First, Customizable Algorithm Social Platform to Rival TikTok

20 hours ago

Kamala Harris Will Not Run for Governor of California in 2026

21 hours ago

Trump Pushes for Release of Epstein, Maxwell Grand Jury Testimony

23 hours ago

Trump Says US to Hit India With 25% Tariff Starting Friday

24 hours ago

Tariff Revenues Hit Record $150 Billion Amid Trump’s Trade Talks, Fox Business Reports

1 day ago

Israeli Minister Hints at Annexing Parts of Gaza

1 day ago

Fed Likely to Hold Rates Steady Despite Trump’s Push for Big Cuts

1 day ago

What’s Behind California’s Frozen Housing Market?

2 days ago

Marjorie Taylor Greene Is First Republican Lawmaker to Call Gaza Crisis a ‘Genocide’

2 days ago
Walters: An Uber-Complex Presidential Primary
dan_walters
By Dan Walters, CalMatters Commentary
Published 6 years ago on
January 19, 2020

Share

A new poll of California voters finds a virtual tie among Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden just a couple of weeks before mail voting begins for the March 3 Democratic presidential primary.
Sanders crept ahead of long-time leader Biden among Democratic voters in the Public Policy Institute of California poll, jumping 10 percentage points over the last two months to 27%.


Dan Walters
Opinion
Biden’s and Warren’s shares were unchanged at 24% and 23% respectively, meaning Sanders gained supporters from second- and third-tier candidates who either dropped out, such as California Sen. Kamala Harris, or have faded.
Were election results to match the PPIC polling, Sanders would claim a victory of sorts, but it’s not quite that simple.
Under the Democratic Party’s uber-complex rules, coming in first in the primary doesn’t necessarily generate a trove of delegate votes.
As Paul Mitchell, California’s premier political number-cruncher, points out in a Capitol Weekly article, “California’s Democratic primary isn’t won at the ‘national poll’ level, or even at the ‘statewide poll’ level. It’s won through a complicated, proportional delegate-allocation procedure that affects campaign strategy and could muddy the final election results.”

There’s a Catch

California will send 495 delegates to the Democratic National Convention, Mitchell continues. “Of those, 416 will be pledged delegates (meaning that they are committed to a candidate), while 79 will be the unpledged ‘superdelegates. … ‘

“The bulk of those pledged delegates will be allocated at the congressional level, with four to seven delegates awarded in each of California’s 53 congressional districts, for a total of 272. In addition, there are an additional 144 delegates awarded based on the statewide results.” — Paul Mitchell 
“The bulk of those pledged delegates will be allocated at the congressional level, with four to seven delegates awarded in each of California’s 53 congressional districts, for a total of 272. In addition, there are an additional 144 delegates awarded based on the statewide results.”
Well, that doesn’t sound too complicated, but Mitchell adds, “there’s a catch,”and explains it thusly:
“To win any delegates within a congressional district requires the candidate to obtain the support of a minimum of 15% of that district’s voters. And the state result is subject to the same rule: If only one candidate gets 15% statewide, that person could win all 144 statewide delegates, but if five candidates reach 15% they would divide the delegates among themselves.
“Given the method of calculating delegates at the congressional district level, the ‘winner’ might only get 20,000 votes more than the closest competitor but receive just one more delegate. Or, if the winning contender was the only one to reach 15%, he or she could win by a mere 1% margin yet capture 100% of the delegates.”

The Likelihood of a Close Finish Among the Three Frontrunners

Got that? And to make it even trickier, counting the votes and applying the formula district by district could take weeks and by the time California’s final result is known, the race might have already been decided elsewhere.
The likelihood of a close finish among the three frontrunners, the complexity of the delegate allocation system and the inevitable delay in counting votes could essentially make our primary a non-factor in choosing the Democratic candidate to challenge President Donald Trump, undercutting the contention that advancing the election from June to March would make California more relevant.
The system that Mitchell describes in excruciating detail poses another question: If California’s Democratic politicians are enamored of a proportional primary election, rather than winner-take-all, why do they insist that November’s electoral votes all go to the winner of the popular vote, rather than being allocated by congressional district, as a couple of other states do?
Just asking.
CalMatters is a public interest journalism venture committed to explaining how California’s state Capitol works and why it matters. For more stories by Dan Walters, go to calmatters.org/commentary.
[activecampaign form=31]

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

Trump Says Mexico Trade Deal Extended for 90 Days

DON'T MISS

Valley Crime Stoppers’ Most Wanted Person of the Day: Nathaniel Smith

DON'T MISS

Judges Question Whether Trump Tariffs Are Authorized by Emergency Powers

DON'T MISS

US Treasury Chief Says He Expects Fed Chair Announcement by Year’s End

DON'T MISS

Fresno Illustrator Debuts as Author With Gamer’s ‘100 First Words’ Children’s Book

DON'T MISS

The Trump Presidency Takes a Better Turn

DON'T MISS

Fresno Man Killed in Hit-and-Run, Suspect Vehicle Located

DON'T MISS

Wall Street Jumps as Microsoft Enters $4 Trillion Club After Results

DON'T MISS

Community and Saint Agnes Named Among Best Regional Hospitals

DON'T MISS

Jet Crashes in Fresno County Field, Pilot Aided by EMS

UP NEXT

How Netanyahu Keeps Playing Trump for a Fool in Gaza

UP NEXT

How Israel’s War With Hamas Became Unjust

UP NEXT

PBS Has a Future by Leaving the Past Behind: Opinion

UP NEXT

Israeli Columnist Alleges Ethnic Cleansing Plan in Gaza

UP NEXT

No One Controls MAGA, not Even Trump. The Epstein Files Prove It

UP NEXT

A Pro-Trump Community Reckons With Losing a Beloved Immigrant Neighbor

UP NEXT

Why American Jews No Longer Understand One Another

UP NEXT

Masked Raids and Impersonators Driving Force Behind Terror Campaign Across Nation

UP NEXT

I’m Not Leaving Measure C and COG Can’t Make Me: Brooke Ashjian

UP NEXT

I’m a Genocide Scholar. I Know It When I See It.

US Treasury Chief Says He Expects Fed Chair Announcement by Year’s End

1 hour ago

Fresno Illustrator Debuts as Author With Gamer’s ‘100 First Words’ Children’s Book

2 hours ago

The Trump Presidency Takes a Better Turn

2 hours ago

Fresno Man Killed in Hit-and-Run, Suspect Vehicle Located

2 hours ago

Wall Street Jumps as Microsoft Enters $4 Trillion Club After Results

2 hours ago

Community and Saint Agnes Named Among Best Regional Hospitals

2 hours ago

Jet Crashes in Fresno County Field, Pilot Aided by EMS

14 hours ago

Madera Man Sentenced to 34 Years to Life in Fresno Murder Case

16 hours ago

High Noon Recalls Mislabeled Vodka Seltzers Shipped in Celsius Cans, NBC Reports

18 hours ago

Wired Wednesday: New Fresno Ordinance Targets Vacant Blighted Properties

18 hours ago

Trump Says Mexico Trade Deal Extended for 90 Days

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump said on Thursday he had agreed with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to extend an existing trade deal...

52 minutes ago

President Donald Trump speaks with Dr. Mehmet Oz, Administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, during the "Making Health Technology Great Again" event in the East Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 30, 2025. (Reuters/Evelyn Hockstein)
52 minutes ago

Trump Says Mexico Trade Deal Extended for 90 Days

Nathaniel Smith is Valley Crime Stoppers' Most Wanted Person of the Day for July 31, 2025. (Valley Crimes Stoppers)
1 hour ago

Valley Crime Stoppers’ Most Wanted Person of the Day: Nathaniel Smith

President Donald Trump speaks after signing the VA Home Loan Program Reform Act at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 30, 2025. (Reuters/Evelyn Hockstein)
1 hour ago

Judges Question Whether Trump Tariffs Are Authorized by Emergency Powers

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attends a press conference at government quarters Rosenbad after the trade talks between the U.S. and China concluded, in Stockholm, Sweden, July 29, 2025. (Reuters File)
1 hour ago

US Treasury Chief Says He Expects Fed Chair Announcement by Year’s End

2 hours ago

Fresno Illustrator Debuts as Author With Gamer’s ‘100 First Words’ Children’s Book

2 hours ago

The Trump Presidency Takes a Better Turn

2 hours ago

Fresno Man Killed in Hit-and-Run, Suspect Vehicle Located

2 hours ago

Wall Street Jumps as Microsoft Enters $4 Trillion Club After Results

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend