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LACONA, Iowa โ When President Donald Trump levied tariffs on China that scrambled global markets, farmer Randy Miller was willing to absorb the financial hit. Even as the soybeans in his fields about an hour south of Des Moines became less valuable, Miller saw long-term promise in Trumpโs efforts to rebalance Americaโs trade relationship with Beijing.
But the patience of Miller and many other Midwest farmers with a president they mostly supported in 2016 is being put sorely to the test.
The trigger wasnโt Trumpโs China tariffs, but waivers the administration granted this month to 31 oil refineries so they donโt have to blend ethanol into their gasoline. Since roughly 40% of the U.S. corn crop is turned into ethanol, it was a fresh blow to corn producers already struggling with five years of low commodity prices and the threat of mediocre harvests this fall after some of the worst weather in years.
โThat flashpoint was reached and the frustration boiled over, and this was the straw that broke the camelโs back,โ says Lynn Chrisp, who grows corn and soybeans near Hastings, Nebraska, and is president of the National Corn Growers Association.
At Least 15 Ethanol Plants Already Have Been Shut Down or Idled
โIโve never seen farmers so tired, so frustrated, and theyโre to the point of anger,โ says Kelly Nieuwenhuis, a farmer from Primghar in northwest Iowa who said the waivers were a hot topic at a recent meeting of the Iowa Corn Growers Association. Nieuwenhuis said he voted for Trump in 2016, but now heโs not sure who heโll support in 2020.
While Iowa farmer Miller saw Trumpโs brinkmanship with China as a necessary gamble to help American workers, the ethanol waivers smacked to him of favoritism for a wealthy and powerful industry โ Big Oil.
โThatโs our own country stabbing us in the back,โ Miller said. โThatโs the president going, the oil companies need to make more than the American farmer. โฆ That was just, โI like the oil company better or Iโm friends with the oil company more than Iโm friends with the farmer.'โ
The Environmental Protection Agency last month kept its annual target for the level of corn ethanol that must be blended into the nationโs gasoline supply under the Renewable Fuel Standard at 15 billion gallons for 2020. That was a deep disappointment to an ethanol industry that wanted a higher target to offset exemptions granted to smaller refiners.
Those waivers have cut demand by an estimated 2.6 billion gallons since Trump took office, according to the Renewable Fuels Association. The oil industry, citing government data and other sources, disputes that figure and contends the waivers have not reduced ethanol consumption.
At least 15 ethanol plants already have been shut down or idled since the EPA increased waivers under Trump, and a 16th casualty came Wednesday at the Corn Plus ethanol plant in the south-central Minnesota town of Winnebago. The Renewable Fuels Association says the closures have affected more than 2,500 jobs.
Trump Said He Was Working up a Solution
The 31 new waivers issued this month came on top of 54 granted since early 2018, according to the association. While the waivers are intended to reduce hardships on small oil refiners, some beneficiaries include smaller refineries owned by big oil companies.
The administration knows it has a problem. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said at a farm policy summit in Decatur, Illinois, on Wednesday that Trump will take action to soften the effects. He would not say what the president might do or when, but said Trump believes the waivers by his EPA were โway overdone.โ
In a tweet Thursday, Trump said he was working up a solution that would soothe both farmers and petroleum executives.
โThe Farmers are going to be so happy when they see what we are doing for Ethanol,โ Trump wrote, but gave no details. โIt will be a giant package, get ready! At the same time I was able to save the small refineries from certain closing. Great for all!โ
The Farmers are going to be so happy when they see what we are doing for Ethanol, not even including the E-15, year around, which is already done. It will be a giant package, get ready! At the same time I was able to save the small refineries from certain closing. Great for all!
โ Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 29, 2019
In an interview later with Fox News Radio, Trump acknowledged that the โThe farmers have been targetedโ by China, both because of their support for his administration and his commitment to them, but maintained that his administrationโs farm subsidies have negated the effect of the trade war.
Geoff Cooper, head of the renewable fuels group, said Perdue, EPA chief Andrew Wheeler and key White House officials have been discussing relief measures that could include reallocating the ethanol demand lost from the exempted smaller refiners to larger refiners that would pick up the slack. But many key details remain unclear, including whether the reallocation would apply in 2020 or be delayed until 2021.

The Oil Industry Has Spoken out Against Some of the Steps Trump Has Taken
โAnything short of that redistribution or reallocation is not going to be well received by farmers, Iโll tell you that,โ Cooper said.
Meanwhile, the oil industry has spoken out against some of the steps Trump has taken to try to appease the farmers, including allowing year-round sales of gasoline with more ethanol mixed in.
โWe hope the administration walks back from the brink of a disastrous political decision that punishes American drivers. Bad policy is bad politics,โ Frank Macchiarola, a vice president of the American Petroleum Institute, an oil industry lobbying group, said in a statement.
Another example of the tensions came last week when the Agriculture Department pulled its staffers out of the ProFarmer Crop Tour, an annual assessment of Midwest crop yields, in response to an unspecified threat. The agency said it came from โsomeone not involved with the tourโ and Federal Protective Services was investigating.
Despite farmersโ mounting frustrations, thereโs little evidence so far that many farmers who backed Trump in 2016 will desert him in 2020. Many are still pleased with his rollbacks in other regulations. Cultural issues such as abortion or gun rights are important to many of them. And many are wary of a Democratic Party they see as growing more liberal.
โThings Are Going Downhillโ
Miller, too, says heโs still inclined to support Trump in the next election.
Though Trump has inserted new uncertainty into Millerโs own financial situation, he believes the president has been good for the economy as a whole. And as a staunch opponent of abortion, he sees no viable alternatives in the Democratic presidential field.
Chrisp, too, says he doesnโt see an acceptable Democratic alternative. Still, he cautioned Republicans against taking farmers for granted.
โWeโre not a chip in the political game, though Iโm certain there are folks who are political strategists who view us that way, but itโs not the case,โ he said.
Brian Thalmann, who farms near Plato in south-central Minnesota and serves as president of the Minnesota Corn Growers Association, confronted Perdue at a trade show this month about Trumpโs recent statements that farmers are starting to do well again.
โThings are going downhill and downhill very quickly,โ Thalmann told Perdue.
Thalmann, who voted for Trump in 2016, said this week that he canโt support him at the moment. He said farmers have worked too hard to build up markets and the reputation of American farm products and โI canโt see agriculture getting dragged down the path it currently is.โ
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