Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

US Consumer Spending Falls as Trump Tariff’s Muddle Economy

2 days ago

US Supreme Court Lets Parents Take Kids Out of Classes With LGBT Storybooks

2 days ago

In Win for Trump, US Supreme Court Limits Judges’ Power to Block Birthright Citizenship Order

2 days ago

California’s Newsom Sues Fox News for $787 Million for Defamation Over Trump Call

2 days ago

Motorcycle Collides With Tractor in Fatal Fresno County Collision

2 days ago

Fourth of July Celebrations Begin Saturday. Here’s Your Fresno Area Guide

3 days ago

Bill Moyers, Broadcaster and LBJ’s White House Press Secretary, Dies at 91

3 days ago

State Department Approves $30 Million for Gaza Humanitarian Foundation

3 days ago

Cargo Ship That Caught Fire Carrying Electric Vehicles Sinks in the Pacific

4 days ago

4 Million Acres of California Forests Could Lose Protection. What Trump’s ‘Roadless Rule’ Repeal Could Do

4 days ago
Walters: 2020 Property Tax Measure Altered
dan_walters
By Dan Walters, CalMatters Commentary
Published 6 years ago on
August 15, 2019

Share

Sponsors of a 2020 ballot measure to increase property taxes on factories, stores, warehouses, office buildings and other commercial real estate withdrew it this week and launched a revised version.


Dan Walters
CALmatters

Opinion
It would be, the union-led sponsoring coalition said, an improvement that eases the potential impact on small business. More likely, however, the motive for the expensive reset is that the “split roll” proposal was facing a tough battle.
Ever since Proposition 13, California’s iconic property tax limit, was passed by voters in 1978, unions and their political allies have yearned to either repeal or modify it. After years of cogitation, they gathered enough voter signatures to put their “Schools and Communities First” measure on the ballot.
It would retain Proposition 13’s tax limits on agricultural and residential properties, including rental homes and apartments, while requiring commercial properties to be upgraded to current market values for tax purposes. However, it would not change Proposition 13’s 1% tax rate limit.
The Legislature’s budget analyst has estimated that a split roll would generate between $6 billion and $10 billion a year in net revenues, about 60% of which would go to local governments and 40% to K-12 schools and community colleges.

Sponsoring Unions Can Afford the Qualification Cost

The revision would not change its overall thrust, advocates said, but would lower its impact on small business, firm up the allocation of new revenues and make it more difficult for commercial property owners to evade its effects.
The original version qualified for the ballot rather easily because a very low voter turnout for the 2014 election depressed the required number of voter signatures — a percentage of the total vote. However, due to last year’s high turnout election, the new version will have a much higher threshold, nearly 1 million valid names.
The sponsoring unions can afford the qualification cost, but it’s not certain they can match pledges from the commercial real estate industry and its allies to spend as much as $100 million to defeat the split roll – very big money in campaign terms, but a tiny fraction of $10 billion a year in new taxes.
Split roll proponents will stress its benefits for schools and local government services, which are popular with voters. They argued this week that limiting taxes on commercial property “has starved funding for schools and local communities.”

Polling Has Not Been Reassuring to Sponsors

Opponents, however, will portray it as a first step toward repealing Proposition 13’s limits for all property, including homes and farms, thus driving limited-income taxpayers from their homes and making the state more hostile to investment.
Polling on the proposal to date has not been reassuring to its sponsors.
A January poll by the Public Policy Institute of California did not mention directing the revenue to any specific purpose and found support from slightly under half of likely voters. An April PPIC poll on education issues asked the question again but mentioned that some of the new revenue would go to schools. With that addition, support rose to 54% of likely voters.
While the pro-split roll coalition touted the latter poll this week, in fact, 54% is a weak starting point for a highly contentious measure. A general rule of the thumb is that 60% pre-campaign support is needed to have a good chance of victory.
The revised measure is clearly designed to make it more palatable, particularly by attempting to neutralize what could be very potent opposition from small business owners. But with Proposition 13 still very popular among voters, any changes in it will still be a hard sell.
CalMatters is a public interest journalism venture committed to explaining how California’s state Capitol works and why it matters. For more stories by Dan Walters, go to calmatters.org/commentary.
[activecampaign form=31]

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

I Detest Netanyahu, but on Some Things He’s Actually Right

DON'T MISS

University of Virginia President Resigns Under Pressure From Trump Administration

DON'T MISS

How Did the Supreme Court Rule? Here’s a Look at the Big Cases

DON'T MISS

Mamdani’s NYC Primary Win Sparks Surge in Anti-Muslim Posts, Advocates Say

DON'T MISS

Trump Sends in DOGE to Slash Federal Gun Regulations by July 4

DON'T MISS

Tensions Flare at Announcement of Major Fresno County Gang Takedown

DON'T MISS

Measure C ‘Blackmailed’ As Fresno Enviro Coalition Gets Huge Say on Transportation Tax

DON'T MISS

Despite $49M Deficit, Fresno Unified Gives Top Brass 5% Raise, 3% One-Time Bonus

DON'T MISS

US Consumer Spending Falls as Trump Tariff’s Muddle Economy

DON'T MISS

US Supreme Court Preserves Key Element of Obamacare

UP NEXT

Tensions Flare at Announcement of Major Fresno County Gang Takedown

UP NEXT

Why Is Usually Sleepy Fresno County Schools Superintendent Race Suddenly Hot?

UP NEXT

Much of LA’s Community of Immigrants Is Hiding, Leaving a Hole in the Fabric of the City

UP NEXT

Can New Star Zohran Mamdani Help Guide the Democratic Party Out of the Darkness?

UP NEXT

Stephen Miller Expands Power in Second Trump Term, Defies Legal Limits

UP NEXT

Things Netanyahu Might Say if Injected With Truth Serum

UP NEXT

California Politicians Ignore Ag’s Troubles, but Boost Movie Business

UP NEXT

Dying Honey Bees Threaten CA Economy. Can Central Valley Lawmakers Save Them?

UP NEXT

Trump’s Courageous and Correct Decision to Bomb Iran

UP NEXT

How the Attacks on Iran Are Part of a Much Bigger Global Struggle

Mamdani’s NYC Primary Win Sparks Surge in Anti-Muslim Posts, Advocates Say

2 days ago

Trump Sends in DOGE to Slash Federal Gun Regulations by July 4

2 days ago

Tensions Flare at Announcement of Major Fresno County Gang Takedown

2 days ago

Measure C ‘Blackmailed’ As Fresno Enviro Coalition Gets Huge Say on Transportation Tax

2 days ago

Despite $49M Deficit, Fresno Unified Gives Top Brass 5% Raise, 3% One-Time Bonus

2 days ago

US Consumer Spending Falls as Trump Tariff’s Muddle Economy

2 days ago

US Supreme Court Preserves Key Element of Obamacare

2 days ago

US Supreme Court Lets Parents Take Kids Out of Classes With LGBT Storybooks

2 days ago

Fresno Unified Trustees Will Get Automatic Raises on Tuesday

2 days ago

Alleged ‘Fake’ ICE Agents Charged. Fresno Court Date Set

2 days ago

I Detest Netanyahu, but on Some Things He’s Actually Right

Like a lot of people of center-right/center-left political leanings, I’ve spent the past few decades detesting Prime Minister Benjamin Netan...

2 days ago

2022 Election Rally for Netanyahu
2 days ago

I Detest Netanyahu, but on Some Things He’s Actually Right

University of Virginia President James Ryan Resigns
2 days ago

University of Virginia President Resigns Under Pressure From Trump Administration

2 days ago

How Did the Supreme Court Rule? Here’s a Look at the Big Cases

Zohran Mamdani Speaks to Supporters
2 days ago

Mamdani’s NYC Primary Win Sparks Surge in Anti-Muslim Posts, Advocates Say

American Flag Revolver
2 days ago

Trump Sends in DOGE to Slash Federal Gun Regulations by July 4

Rob_Bonta_Speaking_At_Press_Conference_1280x720
2 days ago

Tensions Flare at Announcement of Major Fresno County Gang Takedown

Garry_Bredefeld_Sandra_Celedon_Mesure_C_1280x720
2 days ago

Measure C ‘Blackmailed’ As Fresno Enviro Coalition Gets Huge Say on Transportation Tax

Fresno_Unified_Raises_1280x720
2 days ago

Despite $49M Deficit, Fresno Unified Gives Top Brass 5% Raise, 3% One-Time Bonus

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend