Share
A new poll gives Sen. Kamala Harris a narrow lead among Democratic voters in her home state of California, but otherwise shows the race is still up in the air.
That’s probably terrible news for Joe Biden.

Ben Christopher
CalMatters
The new survey from the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found 19% of Democrats and left-leaning independents who are likely to vote say they would cast their ballot for Harris if the presidential primary were held today.
Biden Slips to Fourth Place
There’s still seven months before they could actually cast those ballots, but the state’s March 3 primary is a few months earlier than it has been in years past. And that seems certain to give voters here an earlier, more consequential say about who will take on President Donald Trump in the general election.
Just behind Harris in the poll were Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 15% of respondents (and a top performance among college graduates), and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with 12%.
Biden, the former vice president who has long been considered the candidate to beat in the race, came in fourth with 11%.
The poll has an error margin of plus or minus 4.4%.
“You can’t really say that the person who we thought was going to be the frontrunner — Biden — is. Because clearly, he is not in California,” said Mark Baldassare, president of the institute. “He’s not where people thought Biden would be. Maybe it’s less surprising that Harris would be off to a good start in a state where she’s run for office several times.”
Biden the Most Vulnerable to Bad News
Monday’s poll is one of a series of lackluster indicators for Team Biden in California. A Quinnipiac University survey from earlier this month found Biden had slipped from his first-place post in that poll among registered Democrats, losing ground to Harris.
The former vice president also struggled with individual donors in California. So far in 2019, he’s raised less with that group than Harris, Buttigieg and Trump.
Of all the candidates, Biden may be the most vulnerable to a bit of bad news. A number of surveys have found his appeal among Democratic voters is based on the perception that he is the most “electable.” Today’s new poll putting him in fourth place puts a crack in that presumption of inevitability.
But even with California’s newly prominent place on the primary calendar, it’s not clear how much that will matter. A fresh Quinnipiac poll shows Biden still leads among Democratic voters nationwide.
And with more than half a year to go before the first California votes are cast, there is still plenty of time for voters to make up their minds. According to the Public Policy Institute’s poll, a quarter of likely Democratic voters have yet to do so, including nearly a third of self-described moderates and conservatives.
CalMatters.org is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics.
Gov. Newsom Offers $50K Reward in 2022 Kings County Homicide
7 hours ago
Fresno ‘Powers Up’ the Nation’s Largest Combined Solar and Battery Storage Project
8 hours ago
Trump Admin Asserts COVID-19 Originated in Chinese Lab, Targets Fauci
8 hours ago
Vendors Back at Fresno’s Art Hop? Survey Wants to Know What You Think
9 hours ago
Iran Says Nuclear Deal Is Possible if Washington Is Realistic
9 hours ago
49ers Look to Strengthen Depleted Defense in NFL Draft
9 hours ago
Habit Burger & Grill Quietly Drops Impossible Burger From Menu
9 hours ago


Fresno County Ending ‘Squaw Valley’ Fight After Latest Court Ruling

Gov. Newsom Offers $50K Reward in 2022 Kings County Homicide

Fresno ‘Powers Up’ the Nation’s Largest Combined Solar and Battery Storage Project

Trump Admin Asserts COVID-19 Originated in Chinese Lab, Targets Fauci
