Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
US and Mexico Face Stark Choices as New President Takes Over
By admin
Published 6 years ago on
November 29, 2018

Share

MEXICO CITY — Migrants, trade, crime, the border wall: The challenges to the modern U.S.-Mexico relationship have perhaps never been as stark and divisive as they are now, at a critical juncture for both countries.

“There are very serious short-term problems that have to be managed and managed in a way that can solidify relations over the course of the next six years.” — Earl Anthony Wayne, a former U.S. ambassador to Mexico

With a new president preparing to take power in Mexico City this weekend and the Trump administration set to enter its third year, the two neighbors find themselves lurching between crisis and opportunity on each front. While a trade dispute that President Donald Trump had fanned with great enthusiasm seems set to ease, the other issues remain unresolved and potential flashpoints for both countries.

“This is really a key moment,” said Earl Anthony Wayne, a former U.S. ambassador to Mexico. “There are very serious short-term problems that have to be managed and managed in a way that can solidify relations over the course of the next six years.”

President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador takes office Saturday, just a day after the two nations and Canada are to sign a replacement accord for the North America Free Trade Agreement, which Trump lambasted during the 2016 campaign and vowed to cancel.

An Achievement for the Outgoing Mexican Government

Sealing that deal was an achievement for the outgoing Mexican government as well as for Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. He will attend the signing of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement at the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and will be awarded the highest honor Mexico gives to foreigners, the Order of the Aztec Eagle.

Neither Trump, who has reached out multiple times to Lopez Obrador since his election in July, nor Kushner will be at the inauguration. But Vice President Mike Pence will be there as will Kushner’s wife, Ivanka Trump. In addition, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has already met Mexico’s incoming foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard at least twice, plans to see him again in Washington on Sunday. Kushner will see the foreign minister and his team on Monday. These are indications the White House is keen to keep in close contact with the new Mexican leadership.

Nevertheless, the administration has yet to nominate a new ambassador to Mexico, a post that has been vacant since May. And the apparent personal goodwill and positive developments on trade can’t mask deeper tensions over migration and drug trafficking, Trump’s demands that Mexico pay for a border wall and the deployment of U.S. troops to the southern frontier with a threat to seal all crossings. There’s also the matter of the president’s frequent denigration of Mexicans, repeatedly saying Mexico was sending “criminals” and “rapists” to the U.S.

Left Unresolved, These Could Lead to Crisis

Left unresolved, these could lead to crisis, especially as Trump heads into campaign season for the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

“Campaign mode is going to be ramping up, and what’s clear is that immigration is not going away as an issue. As long as Trump sees there is a political opportunity to hammer the Mexicans and push Congress to get money for his wall, this is all going to cause problems.” — Duncan Wood, director of the Mexico Institute

“Is it possible for things to go horribly wrong? Absolutely,” said Duncan Wood, director of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center think-tank in Washington. “Campaign mode is going to be ramping up, and what’s clear is that immigration is not going away as an issue. As long as Trump sees there is a political opportunity to hammer the Mexicans and push Congress to get money for his wall, this is all going to cause problems.”

One possibility is that the populist Lopez Obrador could be driven by Mexican domestic politics to walk away from cordial relations with the U.S. The outgoing government has already demanded the U.S. investigate an incident this weekend in which American border agents fired tear gas into Mexico at a rowdy group of migrants. Lopez Obrador may have to confront similar events.

“He has a big coalition that has a whole range of people in it, including people who would tend to be critical of the United States,” Wayne said. “The risks are that we not get in a situation where we push him further into a corner when he clearly wants to cooperate.”

Saving Face After Accepting That Mexico Would House Migrants

In the run-up to his inauguration, Lopez Obrador sought to continue his predecessor’s aim of trying to demonstrate that Mexico is a reliable partner for the U.S.

He is aiming to save face after accepting that Mexico would house migrants seeking asylum in the United States by seeking in return a big U.S. contribution to create jobs in Central America and southern Mexico so people would be less inclined to emigrate. Ebrard has suggested that $20 billion is reasonable figure. “It is like the Marshall Plan, in terms of the size of the effort that is needed,” he said, referring to the post-World War II reconstruction effort in Europe.

The deft bit of maneuvering appears to signal that Lopez Obrador’s team has tacitly accepted the U.S. desire for asylum-seekers to stay in Mexico while their claims are evaluated, in exchange for U.S. aid in an unstated quid pro quo.

For some, it is a balancing act in which Lopez Obrador preserves Mexican dignity while avoiding angering Trump.

Ideally, the United States had wanted a formal agreement in which Mexico would agree to become a “safe first country” — meaning migrants would have to apply for asylum in Mexico before reaching the U.S. border — or a “safe third country,” meaning migrants could be returned to Mexico if they weren’t granted asylum in the U.S.

Surprisingly Adept at Handling Foreign Relations

Lopez Obrador’s team avoided any formal agreement by merely recognizing facts on the ground.

“He has a good relationship with the United States. Foreign relations have been the best area I have seen.” — Raul Benitez, a security expert at the National Autonomous University of Mexico

Raul Benitez, a security expert at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, said that, so far, Lopez Obrador has proved surprisingly adept at handling foreign relations despite having almost no experience in the field.

“He has a good relationship with the United States,” Benitez said. “Foreign relations have been the best area I have seen” in the incoming administration. “He got involved in negotiations on the free trade agreement, and that didn’t go badly.”

For others, it smacked of a sellout.

Erika Guevara-Rosas, Americas director at Amnesty International, wrote that “If Mexico agrees to do the US government’s dirty work at the expense of the caravan members’ dignity and human rights, it is effectively paying for Trump’s shameful border wall.”

DON'T MISS

North Korean Leader Says Past Diplomacy Only Confirmed US Hostility

DON'T MISS

Democrats Strike Deal to Get More Biden Judges Confirmed Before Congress Adjourns

DON'T MISS

Newsom Gaslights on Potential Gas Price Hikes in Fresno Visit

DON'T MISS

Automakers to Trump: Please Require Us to Sell Electric Vehicles

DON'T MISS

President Biden Welcomes 2024 NBA Champion Boston Celtics to White House

DON'T MISS

Ohtani Makes History With 3rd MVP, Judge Claims 2nd AL Honor

DON'T MISS

Trump Chooses Pam Bondi for Attorney General Pick After Gaetz Withdraws

DON'T MISS

Average Rate on a 30-Year Mortgage in the US Rises to Highest Level Since July

DON'T MISS

Cutting in Line? American Airlines’ New Boarding Tech Might Stop You at Now Over 100 Airports

DON'T MISS

MLB Will Test Robot Umpires at 13 Spring Training Ballparks Hosting 19 Teams

UP NEXT

Putin Says Russia Has Tested a New Intermediate Range Missile in a Strike on Ukraine

UP NEXT

What Will Happen to CNBC and MSNBC When They No Longer Have a Corporate Connection to NBC News?

UP NEXT

Pope to Make Late Italian Teenager Carlo Acutis the First Millennial Saint on April 27

UP NEXT

US Vetoes UN Ceasefire Resolution in Gaza Conflict

UP NEXT

Israeli Officials Demand the Right to Strike Hezbollah Under Any Cease-Fire Deal for Lebanon

UP NEXT

Spain Will Legalize Hundreds of Thousands of Undocumented Migrants in the Next 3 Years

UP NEXT

TSMC Walks a Geopolitical Tightrope

UP NEXT

Volunteers Came Back to Nonprofits in 2023, After the Pandemic Tanked Participation

UP NEXT

New Study: Proposed Trump Tariffs Could Cost US Consumers $78 Billion a Year

UP NEXT

Iran Defies International Pressure, Increasing Its Stockpile of Near Weapons-Grade Uranium, UN Says

Automakers to Trump: Please Require Us to Sell Electric Vehicles

1 hour ago

President Biden Welcomes 2024 NBA Champion Boston Celtics to White House

2 hours ago

Ohtani Makes History With 3rd MVP, Judge Claims 2nd AL Honor

2 hours ago

Trump Chooses Pam Bondi for Attorney General Pick After Gaetz Withdraws

2 hours ago

Average Rate on a 30-Year Mortgage in the US Rises to Highest Level Since July

3 hours ago

Cutting in Line? American Airlines’ New Boarding Tech Might Stop You at Now Over 100 Airports

3 hours ago

MLB Will Test Robot Umpires at 13 Spring Training Ballparks Hosting 19 Teams

3 hours ago

Death Toll in Gaza From Israel-Hamas War Passes 44,000, Palestinian Officials Say

4 hours ago

Jussie Smollett’s Conviction in 2019 Attack on Himself Is Overturned

4 hours ago

Fresno Council Lowers Speed Limits on Friant and Audubon

4 hours ago

North Korean Leader Says Past Diplomacy Only Confirmed US Hostility

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his past negotiations with the United States only confirmed Washington’s ...

14 minutes ago

14 minutes ago

North Korean Leader Says Past Diplomacy Only Confirmed US Hostility

19 minutes ago

Democrats Strike Deal to Get More Biden Judges Confirmed Before Congress Adjourns

59 minutes ago

Newsom Gaslights on Potential Gas Price Hikes in Fresno Visit

President Joe Biden with Mary Barra, the chief executive of General Motors, at the Detroit Auto Show, Sept. 14, 2022. President-elect Donald Trump has promised to erase the Biden administration’s tailpipe rules designed to get carmakers to produce electric vehicles, but most U.S. automakers want to keep them. (Doug Mills/The New York Times)
1 hour ago

Automakers to Trump: Please Require Us to Sell Electric Vehicles

2 hours ago

President Biden Welcomes 2024 NBA Champion Boston Celtics to White House

2 hours ago

Ohtani Makes History With 3rd MVP, Judge Claims 2nd AL Honor

Former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, speaks before Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a campaign rally at First Horizon Coliseum, Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, in Greensboro, NC. (AP/Alex Brandon)
2 hours ago

Trump Chooses Pam Bondi for Attorney General Pick After Gaetz Withdraws

3 hours ago

Average Rate on a 30-Year Mortgage in the US Rises to Highest Level Since July

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend