A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. (Reuters/Pavel Mikheyev)
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Oil prices rose over 1% on Friday on short-covering ahead of a three-day holiday weekend and lingering worries over supply risks despite the receding likelihood of a U.S. military strike against Iran.
Brent crude was up 72 cents, or 1.13%, to $64.48 a barrel at 10:49 a.m. CDT (1649 GMT), on course for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 59 cents, or 1%, to $59.78 a barrel.
Brent was up a little more than $1 at its intraday peak as investors continue to weigh the potential for supply outages should tensions in the Middle East escalate.
Weighing against those fears are potential supply increases from Venezuela, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group.
“Downward pressure is coming from Venezuela barrels coming on the market,” Flynn said. “Upward pressure is coming from Iran and what may happen there. Those are the two main issues. Three-day weekends are always a time of great surprises.”
Both benchmarks hit multi-month highs this week after protests flared up in Iran and U.S. President Donald Trump signaled the potential for military strikes, but lost over 4% on Thursday as Trump said Tehran’s crackdown on the protesters was easing, allaying concerns of possible military action that could disrupt oil supplies.
“Above all, there are worries about a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in the event of an escalation, through which around a quarter of seaborne oil supplies flow,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note.
“Should there be signs of a sustained easing on this front, developments in Venezuela are likely to return to the spotlight, with oil that was recently sanctioned or blocked gradually flowing onto the world market.”
Analysts expect higher supply this year, potentially creating a ceiling for the geopolitical risk premium on prices.
“Despite the steady drumbeat of geopolitical risks and macro speculation, the underlying balance still points to ample supply,” said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.
“Unless we see a genuine revival in Chinese demand or a meaningful bottleneck in physical barrel flows, oil looks range-bound, with Brent broadly hovering between $57 and $67.”
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(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston, Robert Harvey in London, Helen Clark in Perth and Trixie Yap in Singapore; additional reporting by Stephanie Kelly in London; Editing by David Goodman, Rod Nickel)




