Consumers already tapped out from rising home energy costs face yet another strain on their pocketbooks — surging heating costs.

Higher electricity and natural gas prices coupled with forecasts for unusually cold temperatures across parts of the country are expected to drive up bills as winter takes hold. The average U.S. household is projected to spend nearly $1,000 this winter to heat its home, up 9.2% from a year earlier, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, which represents state governments in securing federal money.

Even as costs rise, the federal government is offering states less money to help low-income residents pay for heat. The budget for a critical federal program has been cut by about a third this year compared with two years ago.

“These increases may not sound dramatic to higher-income households, but for families already struggling, they are devastating,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of the energy assistance association. “Millions of households are being pushed deeper into utility debt and closer to shut-offs simply because they cannot afford to keep their homes warm.”

Home energy costs have steadily increased over the last few years as utility companies have spent more money on electric grids after devastating wildfires and extreme weather and to make up for deferred maintenance. Power providers are also spending billions of dollars on upgrades in anticipation of rapid growth in electricity demand from data centers used for artificial intelligence services.

The cost of energy has emerged as one of the nation’s leading consumer concerns and played a critical role in recent statewide elections in Georgia, New Jersey and Virginia.

Residential electricity prices and bills this year have risen much faster than overall inflation. Since 2021, the average cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour has risen almost 30%.

The average monthly cost for electricity for the typical household that uses 1,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity rose 7% in September from a year earlier, to about $181, according to the Energy Information Administration, a federal agency.

People who use electric heaters will experience a 12.2% increase in heating costs this winter on average, and those who use natural gas will experience an 8.4% increase, according to the energy assistance directors group.

These higher costs will have big ramifications for people who rely on government assistance. Congress has allocated $4 billion to the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program this year, down from $6.1 billion two years ago. Only about 17% of the households eligible for the program are enrolled, the energy assistance directors group said.

As a result, energy experts say, some individuals and families may keep their homes at unsafe temperatures or go without heat at least occasionally.

Utilities have increasingly cut customers off for falling behind on payments. The energy assistance directors group reported that service shut-offs reached 3.5 million accounts in 2024, up from 3 million a year earlier. The association expects 4 million accounts to be shut off this year.

In a statement, a White House spokesperson, Taylor Rogers, blamed the policies of former President Joe Biden and Democratic state officials for high energy costs.

“High energy prices are a choice — blue states like California and Maine are stubbornly choosing green energy scam policies that are making electricity bills unaffordable,” Rogers said. “Meanwhile, GOP-led states are successfully lowering energy costs for their residents by embracing President Trump’s commonsense ‘Drill, baby, drill’ agenda.”

Democratic lawmakers have repeatedly blamed Trump for rising energy costs, saying he has blocked or stalled numerous wind and solar projects, which typically produce electricity at much lower cost than fossil fuel power plants. They add that his embrace of companies involved in AI could drive up energy costs by sharply increasing demand for energy and spending on grid upgrades that are paid for by all utility customers.

The energy directors group said residents of states in the Northeast are experiencing the highest heating cost increases. These states mostly have Democratic governors and colder weather. States in the South and Southwest tend to have lower cost increases, the group said. These states mostly have Republican governors and milder winters.

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This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

By Ivan Penn/Tristan Spinski
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