Politics often boils down to James Carville’s famous analysis: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Environmental justice groups accustomed to getting their way in the Democratic-dominated California Legislature found that out this week.

With “affordability” in the notoriously expensive Golden State suddenly top-of-mind for Democrats, Gov. Gavin Newsom and legislative leaders struck deals to boost oil production in Kern County.

Analyzed Alex Nieves in Politico:

“That shift in momentum towards industry reflects Democratic lawmakers’ fears that the planned closures of two of the state’s nine refineries could send gas prices soaring — just as they’re trying to claw back seats from Republicans in a midterm election where both parties are trying to claim the affordability champion mantle. And it highlights the political risks of aggressively moving away from fossil fuels without a transition plan in place.”

Fears of $8 a Gallon Gas

Assemblymember Stan Ellis, R-Bakersfield, helped ratchet up the pressure on Democrats on Monday by hosting a virtual news conference on California gas prices. His headline-grabbing remark was the possibility of $8-to-$10-a-gallon gas prices if oil production continued downward as the state loses more refineries.

The Philipps 66 refinery in Southern California is closing in October, and a Valero refinery in the Bay Area is set to close in April 2026.

USC professor Michael A. Mische says the refinery closures could raise gas prices to $8.44 a gallon by the end of 2026.

Reported CalMatters: “The governor’s desire to keep lower gas prices — a crucial headline as he courts a national audience ahead of 2028 — also dovetailed neatly with (Assembly Speaker Robert) Rivas’s early commitment to make 2025 the Legislature’s ‘year of affordability.’ Critics often parroted that lofty goal to challenge legislation that they argued would raise costs for consumers.”

As Democratic campaign consultant Andrew Acosta put it, “It’s one thing to have the sound bites at the ready during a campaign. It’s different when all of a sudden a refinery says, ‘We’re out of here, California.’ That’s where we are now — this is real.”

Read more here and here.