The opening of the 2024 football season is near, and it will be an interesting year for the Mountain West Conference, where the coaches are coming and going nearly as fast as star players in search of new NIL deals.

Eight MW programs are under the leadership of new head coaches. They are Jeff Choate (Nevada), Bronco Mendenhall (New Mexico), Sean Lewis (San Diego State), Ken Niumatalolo (San José State), Nate Dreiling (Utah State, interim), Jay Sawvel (Wyoming), Spencer Danielson (Boise State), and Tim Skipper (Fresno State, interim).

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The conference signed a scheduling agreement with Oregon State and Washington State — the only remaining members of the Pac-12 Conference. All MW teams will play a game against either Oregon State or Washington State — or both. The games will not count in the conference standings, and neither Pac-12 — or should I say Pac-2? — school is eligible for the Mountain West Conference championship game.

Expanded TV Coverage and a Huge Possibility

In addition, MW schools can expect more television exposure. The conference has a new broadcasting deal with TNT Sports, with several games to be broadcast on TNT’s truTV channel as well as the streaming service Max.

Even better, the TNT games are in addition to the conference’s 49-game national television schedule on CBS, CBS Sports Network, FOX, and FOX Sports.

On a down note, no MW team is ranked in any of the preseason Top 25s. However, Boise State and Fresno State have a documented history of upsetting big teams and entering the rankings.

A big reward awaits a conference team should post an outstanding record: a likely berth in the new 12-team College Football Playoffs.

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My 2024 Preseason Rankings:

1. Boise State

Last year: Mountain West co-champions, 8-6, lost to UCLA in the LA Bowl

Best case scenario: The Broncos always find a way to make it to the conference championship.

Big question: Can the team recapture the shock-the-nation magic of former head coach Chris Petersen?

Predicted record: regular season 10-2, conference 6-1, Mountain West championship appearance, a bowl game

After a 5-5 record through 10 games last season, coach Andy Avalos was let go and replaced by Danielson, who is now coach.

The roster is loaded with playmakers, namely QB Malachi Nelson, RB Ashton Jeanty, WRs Cam Camper, Chris Marshall, Latrell Caples, DE Ahmad Hassanein, LB Andrew Simpson, and CB A’Marion McCoy. Seven players were voted to the preseason All-Mountain West first team.

The big tests: Oregon, Washington State, Oregon State.

2. Fresno State

Last year: 9-4, won the New Mexico Bowl

Best case scenario: Veteran leadership helps them go a long way.

Big question: Can the team jell under Tim Skipper’s leadership?

Predicted record: regular season 9-3, conference 6-1, Mountain West championship appearance, a bowl game

The Bulldogs were trying to find an identity last year with the offense while the defense didn’t fulfill its potential. The Bulldogs return 14 total starters for 2024, including eight on offense, five on defense and one specialist.

The offense looks to be more explosive with players like QB Mikey Keene, RB Malik Sherrod, WR Jalen Moss, and OL Mose Vavao. The defense is trying to build from last year behind veteran leaders LB Malachi Langley, DL Devo Bridges, DBs Dean Clark, and Cam Lockridge. They’ll get assistance from USC transfer defensive end Korey Foreman. Four players were voted to the preseason All-Mountain West first team.

The big tests: Michigan, Washington State, UCLA.

3. UNLV

Last year: 9-5, lost in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Best case scenario: Build off one of the best years in the program’s history.

Big question: Can they win without Jayden Maiava?

Predicted record: regular season 9-3, conference 5-2, a bowl game

The biggest surprise of last year was the emergence of Las Vegas. The Rebels were led by Barry Odom in his first year as UNLV’s head coach. Odom was voted the Coach of the Year in the conference.

The team was led by freshman phenom Jayden Maiava who finished the regular season passing for 2,626 yards and 14 touchdowns. He was named the Freshman of the Year in the conference and to the second team. It was the first bowl game for the team since 2013.

Maiava transferred to USC, but UNLV added Holy Cross All-American Matt Sluka from the transfer portal. He was the 2023 Patriot League Offensive Player of the Year. Pairing him with offensive coordinator Brennan Marion and Rickey White III (88 catches, 1,483 yards, eight TDs in 2023) will keep the fireworks coming. Five players were voted to the preseason All-Mountain West first team.

However, Odom’s squad is no longer flying under the radar.

The big tests: Houston, Kansas, Syracuse, Oregon State.

4. Air Force

Last year: 9-4, won the Armed Forces Bowl

Best case scenario: The triple option offense always gives them a competitive advantage.

Big question: Can they raise productivity by the players that need to step up?

Predicted record: regular season 8-4, conference 5-2, a bowl game

According to ESPN, Air Force ranks dead last out of 134 FBS teams in returning production at 25% (28% on offense; 23% on defense). And due to service academy requirements, the Falcons aren’t able to fill their holes with transfer portal additions.

Head Troy Calhoun and his coaching have a good foundation, but the team will need several young athletes on both sides of the ball to step up. They’re one of the few teams out there that runs a triple option offense which always gives them a competitive advantage.

The big tests: Baylor, Navy, Army, Oregon State.

5. Colorado State

Last year: 5-7

Best case scenario: Central Valley standout wide receiver Tory Horton contributes greatly to the offense.

Big question: Can head coach Jay Norvell turn the program around the way he did at Nevada?

Predicted record: regular season 7-5, conference 4-3, a bowl game

They’re on a six-year stretch without a winning season. There’s hope for the team with QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and his rocket arm and the highly touted Horton. The Washington Union High School grad was on the Fred Biletnikoff Award watchlist last year and was a top prospect for this year’s NFL Draft. Four players were voted to the preseason All-Mountain West first team.

Norvell established Nevada as a perennial contender in the MWC. If Fowler-Nicolosi reins in the turnovers and the defense bounces back after a rough season, he could achieve the same results in Year 3 of his tenure.

The big tests: Texas, Oregon State.

6. Wyoming

Last year: 9-4, won the Arizona Bowl

Best case scenario: A talented defense can help the team win some games.

Big question: Can Evan Svoboda step up and be the quarterback the team needs him to be?

Predicted record: regular season 7-5, conference 4-3, a bowl game

Former head coach Craig Bohl retired after 10 years with the team. Jay Sawvel replaces him but his familiarity with the program dates back to 2020 when he was their defensive coordinator.

He’s got a talented roster on defense with DT Jordan Bertagnole, EDGE DeVonne Harris, LB Shae Suiaunoa, DB Wrook Brown, and S Wyatt Ekeler all returning. The rushing attack should be good with Harrison Waylee. Other standouts on offense are TE John Michael Gyllenborg and OL Jack Walsh. Three players were voted to the preseason All-Mountain West first team.

But success will rest with Svoboda. He has a strong arm and is athletic, but he still has to prove himself.

The big tests: Arizona State, BYU, Washington State.

7. Utah State

Last year: 6-7, lost the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Best case scenario: Wide receivers Jalen Royals and Micah Davis will make big plays and put them in contention against good teams.

Big question: Who takes the quarterback spot, a transfer from Utah or Iowa?

Predicted record: regular season 6-6, conference 3-4, a bowl game

After back-to-back 6-7 seasons, interim coach Nate Dreiling faces a change at quarterback. Cooper Legas and McCae Hillstead are out, and Utah’s Bryson Barnes and Iowa’s Spencer Petras are in. Not one has stood out yet. The standouts on offense are the WR duo of Jalen Royals and Micah Davis and RB Rahsul Faison. One player was voted to the preseason All-Mountain West first team.

The Aggies went 0-7 against bowl teams and their defense routinely allowed 30+ points.

The big tests: USC, Utah, Washington State.

8. San Diego State

Last year: 4-8

Best case scenario: A change in defensive strategy might helps the Aztecs right the ship.

Big question: Who’ll take the snaps, a transfer or a true freshman?

Predicted record: regular season 5-7, conference 2-5

Former head coach Brady Hoke retired after six seasons with the team. They’re going through an identity change with Sean Lewis at the helm. They’re switching from a blitzing defense to relying on defensive line pressure. The defense welcomes several transfers, including Tennessee State DB Bryce Phillips.

Lewis will have an unproven starting QB, whether it’s Florida State transfer AJ Duffy or true freshman Danny O’Neill.

The big tests: Oregon State, Cal, Washington State.

9. Hawai’i

Last year: 5-8

Best case scenario: Timmy Chang’s offense will see the endzone often this season.

Big Question: Will the offense be dynamic enough to improve upon last year?

Predicted record: regular season 5-7, conference 2-5

Chang is in his third year as head coach and his offense is going to put up points this season. Not only is Brayden Schager returning after a 3,542-yard, 26-TD campaign, but so are his two leading WRs Steven McBride and Pofele Ashlock.

The defense is a cause for concern after surrendering the third-most points per game in the conference last year (32.2). They have the easiest schedule in the conference, playing Delaware State, Sam Houston State, and Northern Iowa in three of their four nonconference games.

The big tests: UCLA, Washington State.

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10. San Jose State

Last year: 7-6, lost in the Hawaii Bowl

Best case scenario: The team can rally around wide receivers Justin Lockhart and Nick Nash.

Big question: What can new coach Ken Niumatalolo accomplish with Brent Brennan gone?

Predicted record: regular season 4-8, conference 2-5

With Brennan’s departure after seven years as head coach, graduations and players transferring out resulted in a mass evacuation of talent. WRs Justin Lockhart and Nick Nash return, Grambling State’s Floyd Chalk IV is the favorite to be the top running back, and the defense should remain solid under longtime defensive coordinator Derrick Odum.

The Spartans don’t have a strong schedule as they play teams like Sacramento State and Kennesaw State. In the end, Niumatalolo is looking to get strong play out of his quarterbacks whether it be Emmett Brown or Jay Butterfield.

The big tests: Washington State, Oregon State, Stanford.

11. New Mexico

Last year: 4-8

Best case scenario: Head coach Bronco Mendenhall is known for turning programs around.

Big question: Can Mendenhall make an immediate impact?

Predicted record: regular season 3-9, conference 2-5

The team hasn’t had a winning record since 2016. Former head coach Danny Gonzales was let go after last season for Mendenhall who is a proven winner. He had successful stints at BYU and Virginia. The program’s last three HC hires went a combined 7-25 in their inaugural season.

Quarterback Devon Dampier has potential, but 1,000-yard RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt and OTs J.C. Davis and D.J. Wingfield left for Power Five programs. The team lost more players to the transfer portal than came in. The defense allowed 35.1 points per game last season.

The big tests: Arizona, Auburn, Washington State.

12. Nevada

Last year: 2-10

Best case scenario: A new head coach is exactly what the Wolf Pack needed.

Big question: What can Jeff Choate accomplish with the Wolf Pack’s best players gone?

Predicted record: regular season 2-10, conference 1-6

Following back-to-back 2-10 campaigns, Nevada made a change at the top by hiring Texas co-defensive coordinator Jeff Choate. Choate has been brought in before to change a program as he led Montana State to a 28-22 record with two playoff appearances.

The transfer portal stole many of the program’s best players from last season. Nevada also faces 10 teams that played in bowl games in 2023.

The big tests: SMU, Minnesota, Oregon State.