Fresno County’s Measure S transportation sales tax remained behind Friday, with its path to passage narrowing as an estimated 12,100 ballots remained uncounted countywide.

Opponents have 122,690 votes, or 51.65%, compared with supporters’ 114,859 votes, or 48.35%, according to the latest results. The half-cent sales tax trails by 7,831 votes.

Although the opposition’s lead has shrunk from 8,684 votes in Tuesday’s update, fewer remaining ballots leave supporters needing a substantially larger share to secure the simple majority required for passage.

If all 12,100 estimated remaining ballots contain a valid vote on Measure S, supporters would need at least 9,966 of them, about 82.4%, to move ahead. That share would increase if some voters skipped the measure or their selections could not be counted.

So far, 18,798 ballots contain no selection on Measure S, while 476 contain overvotes, meaning voters selected more options than allowed.

Meanwhile, the city of Fresno’s Measure D continues to lead, with 68,581 votes in favor, or 57.81%, and 50,057 against, or 42.19%.

The city’s half-cent sales tax would fill a funding gap after Measure C expires in 2027. Measure D’s 18,524-vote advantage exceeds the current estimate of ballots remaining across the entire county.

The latest countywide update puts the estimated remaining ballots at 12,100. Fresno County must certify its election results no later than Dec. 3.

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