Politicians and advocates are closely watching Measure S results. With more than 100,000 ballots still to count countywide, the half-cent transportation tax lags with only 46.99% approval after a vitriolic fight that divided county leaders.

As of Thursday evening, Measure S had received 72,373 yes votes and 81,651, or 53.01%, no votes, according to the Fresno County elections office. The results remain unofficial.

Despite broad agreement among the leaders interviewed that the county needs a transportation tax, a loss for Measure S would mean a second failure at the ballot box to get a replacement for Measure C approved. It would also demonstrate how organized opposition could torpedo an attempt to get one done.

Measure S needs a simple majority to pass, and the message against the proposal appears to have resonated with voters despite the supporters’ financial advantage.

Measure C will last through June 2027, with funding continuing through 2029. The city of Fresno appears poised to preserve a revenue source in the absence of Measure C with its own Measure D, now leading with 57.63% of the vote.

So while Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer gave legitimacy to the effort for a Measure C renewal that culminated in Measure S, how interested the city will be in backing a plan that benefits rural areas more than itself remains to be seen.

Measure D Did Its Job: Dyer

Dyer says Measure S still has a chance and that he wants it to pass, but both he and Council President Nelson Esparza told GV Wire that Measure D did exactly what it was intended to do.

“Measure S is trending in the right direction in the latest counts and there’s still a chance that it will pass,” Dyer said. “I believe D is well positioned to pass. I made an 11th hour decision on Measure D and I’m thankful for that decision today.”

Esparza said the city is well positioned for the future.

“It served its purpose as a financial backstop,” Esparza said. “The mayor and the new council can rest easy knowing that, no matter what happens with Measure S, they won’t be laying off 200 city employees in January.”

Both Dyer and Esparza received vocal criticism for putting the item on the ballot.

But if Measure S fails and the county and the cities within it want to put another plan before voters that can overcome organized opposition, it will take getting big personalities together and making major concessions.

New Solution Starts With COG

Measure S representatives did not respond to requests for comment before publication.

GV Wire spoke with Fresno County Board of Supervisors Chair Garry Bredefeld, Clovis Mayor Vong Mouanoutoua, and Brooke Ashjian, director of Valley Watchdogs, a major contributor to the No on Measure S campaign, about the future of a county tax.

Both Bredefeld and Ashjian opposed Measure S, while Mouanoutoua supported it.

All three said a third attempt to replace Measure C would begin with the Fresno Council of Governments.

Bredefeld, however, said that effort cannot include the Central Valley Community Foundation, which spent more than $1.3 million on campaign expenses, or the nonprofits involved in Measure S.

“The COG ought to realize that getting in bed with people like Ashley Swearengin and environmental radicals is a loser and it is not representing our constituents,” Bredefeld said. “I think if they realize that, they will ignore those lunatics and get back to meeting their jobs and responsibilities as elected officials to come up with a plan to actually fix the roads throughout their neighborhoods.”

Opposition Cheaper Than Proposition

The problem is that both attempts to replace Measure C have faced organized opposition.

In 2022, nonprofits Building Healthy Communities and Leadership Counsel for Justice and Accountability opposed that attempt, and the 58.2% approval rate wasn’t enough to reach the necessary two-thirds approval to continue the measure.

The Central Valley Community Foundation put only $45,000 toward bringing down Measure C that year. Leadership Counsel and Building Healthy Communities each put up about $30,000. All told, opposition to Measure C raised $333,000 from across the state, according to campaign filings.

This year, opposition may overcome Measure S after spending only $80,000. The Measure S campaign received nearly $2.5 million.

Bringing down a campaign could be much cheaper than building one up.

How Involved Will Fresno City Be?

Ashjian said small-town mayors who supported the Measure S plan thought they had more power than they actually do. Where Fresno could raise significant money through a tax measure of its own, small cities won’t have the same pull.

Small-town mayors may have to make concessions this time around.

“Carry your own water. If you can’t carry your own water, then you better make good with the guy that has the water,” Ashjian said.

Mouanoutoua said the big question will be how Fresno moves forward if Measure D passes and preserves city revenue. Measure D would last up to 10 years, ending sooner if a qualifying countywide transportation tax is adopted.

Mouanoutoua, however, said it benefits everyone for Fresno and Clovis to help support transportation needs in smaller communities.

“There’s no benefit like Clovis and Fresno taking care of all the little brothers in the city,” Mouanoutoua said.

How Close Was Measure S Policy to Getting Approval?

Measure S may not have been as far off policy-wise as vocal opponents made it out to be.

“They lost us with the bike lanes and the buses and the 4% slush fund,” Ashjian said. “Had those things been corrected, we wouldn’t be in this mess.”

Bredefeld said Measure S wasn’t even close, and he wants a new plan to dedicate closer to 85% to road repair, compared with the proposed 65%. That would leave at most 15% for public transit and other transportation needs, compared with the 20% allocated to public transit in Measure C and 25% in Measure S.

And many in the county said there is still a need for regional projects such as the Shaw Avenue interchange over Highway 99. Mouanoutoua, however, said Caltrans should be paying for those projects.

Whether state and federal grants could fill that gap would depend in part on the programs’ local matching requirements.

Mouanoutoua said he wanted the county and Measure S opponents to have brought up alternative plans. But when he and Dyer met with county representatives before the split that led to Measure S, he said the county focused so much on opposing the groups behind Measure S that those alternatives were never put on the table.

“They never brought policy discussions forward,” Mouanoutoua said. “And if we can’t do that, then it’ll be doomed again.”

Mouanoutoua is running against his Clovis City Council colleague, Mayor Pro Tem Diane Pearce, to succeed Supervisor Nathan Magsig.

Mouanoutoua said county leaders can’t let the name-calling and personal attacks stop them from coming up with a new plan.

“I can’t get in there and go, ‘you called me a name last time, I’m not going to work with you.’ Silliness,” Mouanoutoua said. “If I did that, please vote me out.”