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Runaway Victory for Becerra as Dems Show More Voting Enthusiasm: Poll
Image of GV Wire news director and columnist Bill McEwen
By Bill McEwen, News Director
Published 50 minutes ago on
October 28, 2026

The latest PPIC poll shows Democrat Xavier Becerra, right, leading Steve Hilton, 61% to 37%, in the California governor's race. (GV Wire Composite/Paul Marshall)

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If the latest polling holds up through Nov. 3, Californians will elect Xavier Becerra in a landslide victory while rejecting the Proposition 40 billionaire tax and Prop. 45’s modifications to the state’s landmark environmental law.

Those are among the key findings in a statewide survey released Tuesday by the Public Policy Institute. The poll was conducted Oct. 16-22 and had a sampling error of plus-or-minus 3 percent.

“If you’re looking for one word to describe Californians’ mood as they are filling out their ballots, it would be gloomy — very gloomy,” Mark Baldassare, PPIC Statewide Survey director and Miller Chair in Public Policy, said in a news release.

“Affordability continues to be a central concern, with majorities across demographic groups saying their incomes are not keeping up with inflation.”

Democrats Far More Enthusiastic Than Republicans

However, that gloom appears to be motivating Democrats to go to the polls.

Seventy-one percent of Democratic likely voters say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in congressional elections. Meanwhile, 46% of Republicans said they were more enthusiastic this time around.

The PPIC’s analyzed: “Unhappiness with the Trump administration is likely playing a role. Seventy-eight percent of California adults disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president — the president’s highest disapproval rating among Californians during his two terms in office. Since the beginning of the year, the president’s approval ratings have dropped most acutely among independents, from 25% in February to 16% in October.”

When asked about U.S. House races, likely voters said they would vote for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate by a 28-point margin (63% to 35%).

Poll Highlights

Here is a quick look at poll highlights:

— Becerra, a Democrat, has a 24-point lead over Republican Steve Hilton (61% to 37%). Becerra’s support includes a 13-point lead among independent likely voters.

— Support for Prop. 40 has dipped from 52% last month to 46%. In addition, Baldassare noted that “Propositions 41 and 42, which could effectively nullify Prop. 40 even if it was passed, are now polling better than the billionaire tax.”

—  A majority of likely voters back Proposition 3, which would make a temporary marginal income tax on high earners permanent. Democrats are backing Prop. 3 with 80% support.

— Voters are showing enthusiasm for the three bond measures on the ballot. More than 60%  support Props. 1 and 37, which would authorize tens of billions in bonds for housing programs. Fifty-seven percent indicated they are backing Prop. 38, which would authorize $8.4 billion in bonds for immunology research.

— Nearly 60% of likely voters oppose Prop. 39, which would require a government-issued identification card to vote.

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Bill McEwen,
News Director
Bill McEwen is news director and columnist for GV Wire. He joined GV Wire in August 2017 after 37 years at The Fresno Bee. With The Bee, he served as Opinion Editor, City Hall reporter, Metro columnist, sports columnist and sports editor through the years. His work has been frequently honored by the California Newspapers Publishers Association, including authoring first-place editorials in 2015 and 2016. Bill and his wife, Karen, are proud parents of two adult sons, and they have two grandsons. You can contact Bill at 559-492-4031 or at bmcewen@gvwire.com
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