Discussions about school closures are coming as Fresno Unified has a working list of facilities with fewer than 400 students. This list covers downtown and north Fresno elementaries most affected by low enrollment.

With community members raising concerns to the district, Superintendent Misty Her said any discussions about closing schools would be done in a public forum.

“We heard our community’s questions at the board workshop, and we want families to get the facts directly from us,” Her said in a news release Tuesday. “No options have been ruled in or out. Any conversation about the future of our schools will be held in the open, with our families, students, staff, and community at the table.”

Arias: Serious Questions Need Serious Answers

But Fresno City Councilmember Miguel Arias, who represents downtown, said those public discussions need to happen now. School closures would be disastrous to an area, but especially to an area that the city has been pushing to develop, he said.

Arias, who is running for Fresno Unified trustee to represent the Edison High region, said the district needs to have serious conversations that involve salaries, planning, and asking parents why they’re leaving the district.

Transfers take students out of neighborhood schools and toward more favorable districts. He said with the $500 million bond approved by voters in 2024, the district should focus that money to make schools attractive to parents. The district also needs to make serious decisions about how to spend its money.

“Celebrating a 1% improvement in literacy isn’t going to stop the massive hemorrhaging of students leaving neighborhood schools and now leaving for out-of-district schools because the product that they’re offering isn’t good enough,” Arias said.

GV Wire asked another Edison region trustee candidate, Rizpah Bellard, to comment about the potential school closures. She declined to comment, saying she has not seen the district’s news release yet.

Six Lowest Attended Elementary Schools In or Near Downtown

The district and the board held a workshop about enrollment and attendance on Sept. 16. Ten elementary schools have enrollment figures at or below 400 students, a crucial benchmark for sustainability.

Of those schools, six were either in the downtown triangle or just outside the area. Five of the elementary schools feed the Roosevelt High region. Not far behind are three elementary schools in the Bullard High region. Edison High and Hoover High each have one elementary school on the list.

Despite some enrollment recovery following the pandemic, Her said the district still faces long-term societal changes that could bring about boundary changes, campus consolidation, and school closures.

The district has not decided how many schools would be closed, if any, according to the district’s Tuesday news release, but Her said at the workshop that “we’re going to have to face this reality.”

Every student brings in about $17,000 per year, said Patrick Jensen, chief financial officer at the district. Lower attendance rates mean reduced funding for the district.

Before the pandemic, enrollment had been flat, but after the pandemic numbers began to drop rapidly. From 2017-18 to 2021-22, numbers hovered around the 67,000 mark. That rate dropped to just above 63,000 by 2024-25, with forecasts predicting enrollment to drop below 60,000 students by the 2029-30 school year.

An average attendance rate of 92.1%, which is the most recent year compared to 94.4% in 2019-20, compounds the district’s financial challenges.

At the workshop, Jensen told trustees that if the district had enrollment and attendance figures this year matching that of 2018-19, the district would have $123 million more in its budget.

“That is revenue that we do not have because we’ve lost students, and the students that we do have are attending at a lower rate,” Jensen said.

Clovis, Sanger, Central Unified Grow While Fresno Declines

Fresno Unified is not alone in anticipating school closures as enrollment declines. San Jose Unified and Oakland Unified have both shut down schools recently, according to EdSource. At 14 school closures, losses at Los Angeles Unified make up more than the next three districts combined.

Schools face declining birth rates, emigration away from California, and more recently, immigration enforcement, Her told board members. School choice has also become much easier, she said.

Regionally, Fresno Unified is the only district suffering losses. While Fresno’s enrollment dropped to 66,824 from 69,524, Clovis grew to 43,254 from 41,954, and Central grew to 16,008 from 15,729, according to state enrollment data. Sanger Unified climbed to 12,103 from 11,630.

At a Downtown Fresno Rotary event in August, Her fielded a question from former teacher and current candidate for Fresno Unified trustee of the McLane region Karen Steed, who said parents “are voting with their feet” and leaving Fresno Unified.

While special programs such as career technical education or dual-language immersion programs draw students from other areas, Her agreed and said that some families are opting for other districts.

“We’ve actually done a study of where are all of our kids going and yes, they are going to … Clovis, everywhere, but if there’s a place where the kids are going, I’m glad they’re going there,” Her said.

She added that the public and media don’t help with Fresno Unified’s perception. She called on parents to help tout positive stories about the district.

“There’s so many reasons for why kids go where, and then I have to say our public doesn’t help us in Fresno Unified,” Her said. “We (went from) 2% to 70% (literacy at a school) but no one told that story. But everyone told the story about the dead body that was found at Fresno High.”

Use Bond Money to Get Parents Excited About Fresno Unified: Arias

Arias said if the Measure S transportation tax passes, more comprehensive public transit will make it even easier for kids to go to other school districts. While out-of-district transfers largely come from upper-middle class families who can afford transportation farther away, that problem will worsen if Measure S passes and public transportation becomes easier, cheaper, and more efficient.

“The public bus system in the city of Fresno is going to fuel the exodus of Fresno Unified families like we’ve never seen before,” Arias said. “Ultimately, what every family wants is a good education for their kids, and right now, historically, they’ve been driving their kids to neighboring districts. Going forward, they can simply take the bus to a better school district.”

With smart planning and a willingness to make cuts, he said the district can turn itself around.

In 2024, voters approved a $500 million bond to support facilities in Fresno Unified. Of the 10 schools identified as low enrollment, two were tagged for projects in the Measure H list.

The board approved spending just over $1 million for new restrooms at Jefferson Elementary and nearly $17 million for partial renovation and new restrooms at Kirk Elementary.

The district needs to learn how to market itself by finding out why parents are leaving, Arias said.

While the district sets itself up for the long term, it needs to look at short-term cuts, he said. GV Wire research shows that Fresno Unified has twice as many administrators as its most similar district — Long Beach Unified.

Those administrators also earn more on average despite a 38% lower cost of living in Long Beach.

“This is the financial mismanagement of the district. The overcompensation of employees across the board has finally caught up and it can no longer continue without significant cuts at the neighborhood level,” Arias said.