Less than a third of voters think the country is better off than it was when President Donald Trump returned to the White House a year ago, with a wide majority saying he has focused on the wrong issues, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena University.

A majority of voters disapprove of how Trump has handled top issues including the economy, immigration, the war between Russia and Ukraine and his actions in Venezuela. And significantly, a majority of Americans, 51%, said Trump’s policies had made life less affordable for them.

All told, 49% of voters said the country was worse off than a year ago, compared with 32% who said it was better.

The survey also revealed the extent to which Trump has polarized the nation into its furthest partisan corners, with more voters seeing him as on track to be historically bad or good than merely below or above average. Some 42% of voters said he was on track to be one of the worst presidents in American history — and 19% said he was headed to be one of the best.

Trump’s own job approval rating stands at 40%, down 3 points since September. His disapproval rating has crept up to 56%.

Only 42% of voters rated Trump’s first year as a success.

One glimmer of good news for Trump is that the share of voters who say the country is on the right track, while low, has remained largely unchanged since at least April. It also remains higher than it was under his predecessor, Joe Biden, who on this question alienated not just Republicans and independents but also half of Democrats. Under Trump, most Republicans still feel the country is headed in the right direction.

Still, there were some signs of softening support for Trump among Republicans when it came to his approach to foreign affairs and addressing the cost of living. His lowest approval rating within his party came on his handling of the release of files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein: Only 53% of Republicans approved of his handling of that matter.

Overall, only 34% of independent voters, who tend to determine who wins elections, approve of the job Trump is doing. And twice as many independent voters think the country is worse off now compared with a year ago than better, 52% to 24%.

Hypotheticals Show Democrats Favored

In a hypothetical question about the 2026 midterm elections, voters favored a Democratic candidate over a Republican by 5 percentage points, 48% to 43%. The Democratic edge among independent voters was 15 percentage points, although a sizable share of independent voters declined to pick a preferred party.

“I think he must be doing something right when there are so many people opposed to him,” said Paul Minihane, 77, a real estate broker who lives in Dedham, Massachusetts. “I mean, Donald Trump could look at me in the face and tell me to go screw myself. And I’d say, ‘Thank you.’ I think that’s good. I don’t think he’s looking to kiss everybody’s ass. I think he’s going to do what he thinks is the right thing. And I think that’s a positive thing.”

His enduring popularity with the base presents a bind for Republican congressional candidates, who must win over his supporters without repelling swing voters.

In an open-ended question about what emotions Trump evokes, Democrats expressed outrage, sadness, disgust or fear. Republicans reported pride, satisfaction, hopefulness or relief. A small share of voters who supported Trump in 2024, around 12%, expressed emotions related to outrage, disgust or disappointment.

The economy and related topics — inflation and the cost of living — remain the top issue for American voters by far.

Trump’s 40% approval rating on the economy mirrored his overall standing. But other indicators showed more vulnerability, including that only 24% of voters thought he had made life more affordable and only 34% believed he had handled the issue of the cost of living well.

“Maybe I have bad public relations people, but we’re not getting it across,” Trump said at the White House on Tuesday at an event celebrating his one-year mark.

Only 32% of voters said the economy was better today than a year ago. At the same time, when asked about the current economy, voters gave a slightly rosier assessment than April 2025, with 29% calling the economy good or excellent now, up from 22% then.

Majority Says Trump Focused on Wrong Issues

Overall, 57% of voters thought Trump was focused on the wrong issues — including a whopping 69% of voters under 30, more than any other age group.

Voters whose top issue was an economic concern were more likely to say Trump was focused on the wrong issues. Voters whose top issue was immigration thought Trump was focused on the right issues.

On immigration, voters are broadly more favorable toward Trump’s policies than their implementation, continuing a trend seen in previous Times/Siena polls.

Half of voters said that they supported the Trump administration’s deportations of people living in the United States without legal status, and half approved of his handling of the border between Mexico and the United States.

At the same time, a sizable 61% majority, including 71% of independents, said the administration’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency had “gone too far” with its tactics, which have driven protests in multiple cities. Similarly, 63% of voters said they disapproved of how ICE is handling its job. The poll was conducted in the aftermath of the shooting of Renee Good by an ICE officer in Minneapolis that spurred national attention and local protests.

“Criminals in the United States that happen to be illegal immigrants, those people need to be deported,” said Jeffrey McGinn, 55, a Republican who works at a health care tech company and lives in Columbia, Tennessee. “He’s rounding up soccer moms and trying to ship them out with no due process at all. That is not what America wanted. That’s not what Republicans wanted. The people that voted for Trump did not want that.”

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This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

By Shane Goldmacher, Ruth Igielnik and Camille Baker/Allison Robbert
c. 2026 The New York Times Company