As California Democrats try to counter expected events in Texas by redrawing congressional districts ahead of the 2026 midterms, a few conclusions can be drawn about the revised San Joaquin Valley seats.

This is, of course, a theoretical exercise as California voters would have to approve the redrawn maps in a special November election for the new lines to take effect. You can expect airwaves and mailboxes to be filled with arguments for and against the closer we get to Election Day.

Meanwhile, Republicans are doing their best to see that the revised boundaries don’t get to the ballot. Four Republican lawmakers have filed suit asking the state Supreme Court to erase the new lines ASAP.

Here’s what stands out with the new maps:

Valadao Faces a Tougher Battle

One: based on the new lines made public by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Democrats are desperate to knock out Republican David Valadao of Hanford.

The proposed map adds voters from Fresno County, increasing the Democratic voter registration edge over Republicans to plus-17 percentage points. That compares to a nearly plus-12 Democratic advantage in today’s District 22.

This gerrymander might end Valadao’s time in Washington, D.C. — if the new voters aren’t conservative Democrats like their Valley brethren who have supported him in the past.

Two: Democrats are eager to ensure that north Valley lawmakers Adam Gray of Merced and Josh Harder of Stockton remain in Congress.

Gray has narrowly lost and won the 13th District seat in consecutive election cycles. The proposed map adds more registered Democratic voters in Stockton, giving him a plus-15 edge over Republican opponents. In the district today, the breakdown is 39.85% Democrats vs. 30.26% Republicans.

Under the proposed maps, Harder adds to his Democratic base as the 9th District swings toward the East Bay. With the stroke of a pen, Harder goes from a plus-10 Democratic voter registration edge to a whopping plus-22 advantage. Isn’t gerrymandering grand?

Three: the DCCC is confident that veteran Rep. Jim Costa of Fresno can fend off Republican challenger Lorenzo Rios of Clovis in District 21. The proposed map raises the Democratic voter registration advantage over Republicans by just 1 percentage point to plus-14.

Related Story: 5 Things to Know About Newsom’s Plan to Redraw CA Election Maps

GOP’s Fong Should Breeze to Victory

Four: Republican Vince Fong of Bakersfield has nothing to fear from the redrawn maps. Rep. Fong would enjoy a 22 percentage-point Republican voter advantage in the proposed 20th District — up from about a 21-point advantage under today’s alignment.

In addition, Rep. Tom McClintock, whose sprawling district dips south into Central California’s mountain communities, would see his GOP voter registration edge tick up to plus-15 from plus 13.5 edge. However, what would happen if he matches up against another Republican whose district has been reshaped to overwhelmingly favor a Democrat?

Insiders say that Rep. Kevin Kiley, a Republican, might take on McClintock in a bid to stay in Congress.

Where Else Do Democrats Eye New Seats?

Inquiring minds might ask: If the Democrats at best only pick up one seat in the Valley, where would Gov. Gavin Newsom get five new blue seats to counter Texas and President Donald Trump?

Northern California. This is where the gerrymandered maps split longtime conservative Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s district in a move creating two Democrat seats. And a redrawing of Kiley’s seat replaces Republican voters in the Sierra with Democratic voters in Sacramento.

Finally, there’s Southern California, where Democrats hope to finally topple Ken Calvert, a Republican and member of Congress since 1993.

(Editor’s note: This column has been updated to reflect Kiley’s potential challenge of McClintock.)