California suffered the biggest job losses in the U.S. for the first part of the year, a new study from Wells Fargo shows. High interest rates impacted debt-heavy sectors, causing employers to shed jobs at a rate of more than 18,000 a month in the first quarter.

Fresno, however, managed to keep its head above water. The area’s average of 567 jobs added per month came were half of the previous quarter but still ranked as the highest in the state, said Jackie Benson, economist with Wells Fargo.

The city’s younger population helped prevent job totals from turning negative, Benson added.

Additionally, new data from the California Department of Finance shows Fresno County as the fastest growing county in the state.

“It’s less tied to market conditions and more just a product of population growth,” Benson said of the added jobs. “Health care is a big driver in Fresno, but also retail and wholesale trade, which is connected to consumer demand. Gains in local government explain the rise as well.”

Positivity, however, could be short-lived. The bank expects the impacts of the Trump tariffs to have their effect later this year. In addition, water and low commodity prices brought about the highest month-over-month ag job losses the Fresno region has experienced.

Fresno Is Fastest Growing Large California City

From December to March, the Fresno area — that now includes Madera — lost 9,200 jobs, according to state Employment Development Department. Construction lost 700 jobs, retail lost 2,200 jobs, and transportation and warehousing lost 1,600 jobs.

Employment, however, increased, adding 7,300 jobs. Benson said this is because of Fresno’s younger, growing population.

The labor force grew by 14,100 people, the EDD reported.

Health care and government employment posted the highest gains, increasing by 2,300 jobs.

Community Regional Medical Centers created 400 new positions, including 300 new registered nursing jobs.

The hospital system will also open a skilled nursing facility later this year, which could add 250 new jobs.

Younger Population Driving Fresno’s Economic Engine

With the median age in Fresno at 34 years old, compared to 38 in California and 39 nationwide, younger residents help keep the economy strong and businesses staffed, Benson said. It also sustains the regional economy into the future.

“It’s a younger population growing from natural causes where most of the rest of the country is declining — more people dying than being born,” Benson said. “That increase in the natural population is something that’s a growth driver for the future labor force, future consumer base.”

Fresno had the largest year-over-year population growth of large cities, the finance department reported May 1, climbing by .8%. Fresno County also grew the fastest of large counties and third-fastest of all counties, growing by .9%.

Madera County ranked the highest for housing growth, increasing its housing stock by 2.7%.

Fresno also ranked fifth in the nation for average number of monthly Google searches related to moving, according to a study from CabinetSelect. Fresno trailed only Houston, Dallas, Orlando, and Austin, Texas.

California also had positive population growth.

California’s population grew by 108,000 in 2024 — the second year in a row since the COVID-19 pandemic spurred outmigration away from the state, according to the finance department.

Legal immigration into the state also grew faster than expected from 2021 to 2024, adding 277,468 more than previously thought, the department reported.

President Donald Trump’s new restrictive immigration policies may counter that trend, leading to economic losses, Benson said.

Fresno Madera Region Had Biggest Ag Job Losses Ever: EDD

In March, the Fresno Madera had the largest month-over-month ag losses ever, the EDD reported, losing 4,300 jobs.

March job losses for ag are typical as tree-pruning jobs from November to February dry up, said Manuel Cunha, president of the Nisei Farmers League.

But the impacts of water and low commodity prices have already beset growers, especially grape growers.

Wine companies put a cork in purchasing as they’ve been unable to sell bottles at the rate they did during the pandemic, Cunha said. High-profile winery bankruptcies in 2023 and 2024 brought the issue to the forefront.

That leaves growers with grapes on the vine and no one to buy.

“There’ll probably be 25,000, 30,000 acres out of production, maybe even more,” Cunha said. “I know some people are pulling 300 and 400 acres. When I say pull it out, they’re not going to prune it, they’re not going to do anything with it other than just pull it up because there’s no market.”

Lemon imports from South America have impacted citrus prices, going from $350 a bin to $150 a bin, Cunha said. The impact of retaliatory tariffs have yet to play out, but even growers that only sell domestically will experience lower prices when more citrus has to be sold in domestic markets, he added.

In western Fresno County, increased water prices because of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act have increased production costs in a state with the highest cost for agriculture, Cunha said.

The loss in ag jobs will especially impact western Fresno County cities reliant on farming labor.

“This is what’s happening because of the regulations, because of SGMA not being handled correctly, not having the governor provide more storage facilities so we could put more water on the west side so we can save Avenal, so we can save Mendota, Firebaugh,” Cunha said.

Tariff Impacts to Be Realized Q3: Wells Fargo

First-quarter job losses statewide undid any gains California had by the end of 2024. Though payroll losses were widespread, losses in transportation, utilities, professional and business services, and information sectors were especially pronounced, according to U.S. Department of Labor data.

The state lost more than 10,000 jobs in the trade, transportation, and utilities sector.

Jobs in March decreased to 17.98 million from 17.99 million in February, but unemployment dropped to 5.3% from 5.4% in February, according to the EDD.

Job losses would have been more severe were it not for gains in the health care and government sectors.

That compares to national figures where the labor market has held up surprisingly well, Benson said.

“Latest data in April have been on trend with what would be considered a healthy labor market, even though they have been directionally slowing,” Benson said. “But the bottom certainly has not fallen out of the labor market by any means.”

Business owners stocked up on inventory in the first quarter, anticipating tariff impacts. That slowed GDP growth and business hiring plans, said Benson.

“However, none of that has bled into the real hard economic data yet,” Benson said. “So, we’re still expecting a slowdown to materialize from tariffs just raising costs and leaving less room for investment in hiring.”

Wells Fargo anticipates the impact of tariffs to begin showing around 2025’s third quarter.