MADISON, Wis. — Two states nearly 1,000 miles apart will on Tuesday provide the best evidence yet of whether President Donald Trump and his Republican allies maintain robust support or whether they face a growing backlash led by a reenergized Democratic Party.

In Wisconsin, a nearly $100 million race for control of the state Supreme Court has morphed from an important clash over the state’s direction into a referendum on Elon Musk’s supersized role in national politics.

In Florida, one of two special elections for deep-red House seats suddenly seems too close for comfort for Republicans. Democrats, while still expecting to lose, are watching the margins closely for signs that their party is ascendant.

Here are five big questions heading into Tuesday’s elections.

Will Elon Musk’s Millions Pay Off?

Musk’s support for Brad Schimel, the conservative candidate in Wisconsin, has been a full-service political operation.

The billionaire and groups tied to him have spent more than $25 million, financing a potent ground game. An army of $25-an-hour canvassers has knocked on Trump voters’ doors, and pallets of glossy mailers have assured Republicans that Schimel is a Trump ally. A conservative nonprofit with ties to Musk has helped blanket the airwaves with ads bashing the liberal candidate, Susan Crawford, as weak on crime. And Musk’s giving includes $3 million to the Republican Party of Wisconsin, which has funneled the money to help Schimel.

That was all before Musk spoke for nearly two hours at a rally for Schimel on Sunday night in Green Bay.

If Musk’s extraordinary effort is successful, Wisconsin Republicans will be hopeful of friendly rulings by a conservative-controlled court on cases about abortion rights, voting access and the power of the state’s Republican-run Legislature.

It is possible, however, that Musk’s largesse comes at a political cost to Schimel. Polling shows that Musk is just as unpopular among Wisconsin Democrats as Trump is, but without as much residual loyalty from Republicans. Democrats have framed Crawford’s campaign around the idea that she is battling the world’s wealthiest person.

“We are in uncharted territory where we now have the richest man in the world who is trying to buy our election and the question is: Can he do it?” said Sarah Godlewski, the Democratic secretary of state of Wisconsin.

At her closing campaign rally Monday night in Madison, Crawford skewered Musk for appearing at his rally wearing the foam yellow headwear preferred by the state’s sports fans.

“Let me talk about my opponent, Elon Musk,” she said. “I saw a picture of him yesterday with a cheesehead on. First time he’s been in Wisconsin, he has not earned the right to wear a cheesehead.”

Is the Democratic Energy Finally Here?

Democratic hopes have slowly, cautiously started to rise.

The party crowed about flipping Republican-held state legislative seats in recent special elections in Iowa and Pennsylvania. And on Saturday, voters in Louisiana rejected four proposed constitutional amendments backed by Gov. Jeff Landry, a Republican, that would have overhauled parts of the state’s tax codes and toughened penalties for juvenile offenders.

But none of those was nearly as expensive or prominent as Tuesday’s contests, and so the question of whether they were one-off upsets or a harbinger of a broader Democratic resurgence will be determined by what happens in Wisconsin and, to a lesser extent, Florida.

A victory by Crawford, a mild-mannered jurist, could put wind in the sails of a new Trump resistance, similar to Jon Ossoff in April 2017. While Ossoff, now a Georgia senator, lost what was then the most expensive House race ever, he became a fundraising juggernaut and demonstrated to scores of other candidates a path to viability against Republicans in the first Trump era.

Wisconsin Democrats have placed Musk at the center of their messaging operations in the race: To make sure voters got the point, they branded a statewide tour “The People v. Elon Musk.” Fearful of being drowned out by Musk’s millions, Democrats have helped Crawford shatter fundraising records.

“We are figuring out the path forward,” said state Rep. Greta Neubauer, a Racine Democrat who is her chamber’s minority leader.

Are Democrats Really Competitive in Florida?

House Republicans had expected their razor-thin majority to grow easily by two seats Tuesday in elections to replace members of Congress whom Trump picked last year to join his Cabinet.

One, Michael Waltz, became the national security adviser, while the second, Matt Gaetz, resigned his seat and later withdrew from consideration as attorney general amid an ethics investigation and Republican opposition.

Trump endorsed Jimmy Patronis, the state’s chief financial officer, to replace Gaetz in the Panhandle and state Sen. Randy Fine to replace Waltz in a northeastern district that includes the NASCAR hub of Daytona Beach.

But Fine’s Democratic opponent, Josh Weil, has handily outraised him, prompting public warnings about Fine’s chances of a comfortable victory in a district Trump won by 30 percentage points. While Republicans are still expected to prevail, both parties are watching the margin of victory closely.

How Much Turnout Does $100 Million Buy?

The last race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, two years ago, cost about $56 million to become the most expensive judicial election in American history.

That election drew 1.8 million voters, or about 56% of the state’s turnout in the presidential election in 2020 — a high percentage for a state court race.

Now, with spending approaching $100 million, a key factor in the outcome is how much higher turnout will go.

America Votes, a Democratic voter mobilization group that is active in the state, estimates that just over 2 million Wisconsinites will vote, an increase that could account for either juiced Democratic interest or a successful Republican turnout operation by Musk. If that many Wisconsinites do vote, the turnout will be about 60% of the state’s turnout last November.

Is Musk the Future of Our Elections?

Musk has nearly unlimited wealth, the president’s ear and far-ranging power in Washington.

If he can single-handedly alter a state judicial race, how else might he inject himself into the country’s elections?

Victory in Wisconsin could embolden Musk to grow even more aggressive in throwing his billions behind Republican candidates for office this year and in the 2026 midterm elections. That could leave conservative candidates even more in thrall to Trump, if their primary financial benefactor continues to work out of the White House.

This is all happening while Musk stands to benefit financially from the candidates he has thrown his money and influence behind. Tesla, the electric vehicle company Musk controls, has a case against Wisconsin pending in the state’s courts, and Trump has gone out of his way to promote the billionaire’s products from the White House.

Defeat for conservatives, of course, would hardly mean that Musk would stop spending on elections. But it would prove to Democrats that he is beatable with enough money and base energy.

Still, while Democrats may see Musk as a figure who fires up their base and supercharges liberal fundraising, that is a lot easier for them to do when Wisconsin is the marquee race in the country and a focus of national attention.

If Musk were bankrolling dozens of Trump-allied candidates for governor, Senate and Congress across the country next year, it could be a far more difficult proposition to match his financial might with the same degree of grassroots enthusiasm when national attention is more diffuse.

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This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

By Reid J. Epstein and Emily Cochrane/Jim Vondruska
c. 2025 The New York Times Company