After losing a Central Valley congressional seat in 2024, the National Republican Congressional Committee wants it back.

Democrats, meanwhile, want to defend their Valley seats while also ousting David Valadao, the resilient Kings County Republican who has won election to Congress six of the seven times he’s run.

Given that the Republicans hold a five-seat edge, 218- 213, with four vacancies in the House of Representatives, the Valley again will be a key battleground in 2026.

Meaning: Many millions of dollars in campaign and independent expenditures will be spent on races in our region and voters should expect to be bombarded with  television ads, mailers, social media posts, and people knocking at the door.

Gray Leads the NRCC’s Hit List

Atop the NRCC’s hit list is Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced), who edged District 13 incumbent John Duarte by 187 votes last November.

In 2022, Duarte beat Gray by 564 votes. Gray has filed to run again in 2026. No Republican has yet filed.

“Out-of-touch Democrat Adam Gray continues to put the radical far-left agenda ahead of Californians. House Republicans are on offense and will hold Gray accountable; he will lose his seat next year,” NRCC spokesperson Christian Martinez said.

Gray is one of 26 Democrats the NRCC is targeting in 2026. Five are in California: Gray, Josh Harder, D-Tracy, George Whitesides, D-La Canada Flintridge, Derek Tran, D-Orange, and Dave Min, D-Irvine.

Targeting for the NRCC means support through direct financial contributions, and help with research, communications, and turning out the vote.

How the Dems Plan to Defend Their Seats

Those same five Democrats are also part of the the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Frontline” program to help defend the seats.

“Frontline is the DCCC’s battle-tested program to provide Democratic Members of Congress from competitive seats both the resources and support to execute effective reelection campaigns,” a DCCC news release states.

The DCCC has not announced its official target list yet, what it calls “Districts in Play.” But, a recent news release attacking Valadao provides a clue.

“House Democrats won in tough races across the country in 2024, powered by our battle-tested candidates such as Josh Harder and Adam Gray, who won despite the NRCC’s false bravado. These Frontliners will win again in the midterms,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said.

Shelton also criticized Republicans for “running scared” and not holding town hall meetings.

In 2024, the DCCC targeted Valadao and Duarte, going 1-for-2.

One name absent from both sides is Rep. Jim Costa, D-Fresno. The veteran politician won his 11th term in Washington last year.

Politicker ….

Fresno City Councilmember Annalisa Perea transferred $172,499 from her council fund to her 2026 account for state Assembly. Fresno Building Healthy Communities President/CEO Sandra Celedon also has filed to run for the 31st District seat. She is backed by the current occupant, Joaquin Arambula.

Ariana Martinez Lott filed to run for Fresno’s District 7 council seat in 2026. A former staffer for Fresno City Councilmember Miguel Arias, she was selected for a Fresno Community Journalism Fellowship last year and had thrown herself into community organizing.

Nav Gurm, a political consultant and also former City Hall staffer, previously filed to run for District 7. He started raising funds last year, reporting $43,525 in the bank as of Dec. 31, 2024.

The incumbent, Nelson Esparza, terms out after the 2026 election. He is running for state Senate in District 14.