What's in Store for California if It Splits From the US?

Portrait of CalMatters Columnist Dan Walters

By Dan Walters, CalMatters Commentary

Published 7 months ago on

January 24, 2025

As Trump-Newsom feud reignites, a comparison between an independent California and Canada sparks debate. (GV Wire Composite/David Rodriguez)

California's economy outperforms Canada's, ranking 5th or 6th globally compared to Canada's 9th place standing.
An independent California would need to address defense, healthcare, and Social Security funding challenges.
The idea of California secession resurfaces amid renewed tensions between President Trump and Gov. Newsom.

With Donald Trump back in the White House, he’s resuming his long-running feud with California and its political figures, most prominently Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Dan Walters

CalMatters

Opinion

Trump refers to Newsom as “Newscum” in his social media postings, and Newsom has called a special session of the California Legislature to pay for steps to thwart Trump’s policy decrees.

The transcontinental sniping raises an old question: Could California sever ties with the United States and once again become an independent country?

The San Diego County-based Independent California Institute thinks so. It cites California’s world-class economy and its status as “an influential and well-known actor on the world stage, particularly in humanity’s collective fight against climate change.”

The institute has released a new poll purporting that more than 60% of Californians agree that they “would be better off California if peacefully seceded from the U.S. at some point in the next 10 years.”

Comparing an Independent California to Canada

None of this is likely to happen, of course, but on paper an independent California might be feasible.

Canada, which also shares a long border with the 47 other contiguous U.S. states, is comparable in many ways to an independent California.

California’s population, just under 40 million, is almost identical in size to Canada’s, but there is a big difference in economic output. Canada’s $2.3 trillion economy ranks ninth in the world while California’s $3.9 trillion ranks fifth or sixth.

Canada’s national budget of $534.6 billion Canadian ($372 billion US) is not too much more than Newsom’s proposed $322 billion state budget. However, about $100 billion of California’s comes from non-tax sources, mostly the federal government.

Budgetary and Defense Considerations

Much of Canada’s budget resembles California’s, namely spending on education, health care, welfare and housing. One major difference is that Canada also is spending about $40 billion on military defense, less than 5% of the $825 billion the United States spends for defense.

That raises an interesting question about how an independent California would defend itself. Would it, like Canada, depend on its much more powerful neighbor to provide military protection if needed, or would it build a substantial military of its own? It’s one of the many aspects of governance that a California nation would have to address.

The U.S. government now collects more than $560 billion a year in taxes on Californians, so without raising overall taxes, the new nation would have that money to finance not only a military force but other programs now covered by the feds wholly or partly, such as health care and Social Security payments.

Healthcare and Social Security in an Independent California

The federal government now covers about 50% of Californians’ medical costs, paying out roughly $200 billion a year via Medicare, Medi-Cal, Obamacare and coverage for military and federal retirees.

The Social Security system pays about about $10 billion in benefits each year to more than a million California recipients.

The Independent California Institute envisions that an independent California would continue its center-left policies, and Canada could be a model for that as well. However, the Canadian economy has been in crisis lately; its budget has a $40 billion deficit and its long-serving prime minister, Justin Trudeau, is being forced to step down.

Trump has suggested that a troubled Canada should become a state. The final question, therefore, is would swapping California for Canada be better for everyone?

About the Author

Dan Walters is one of the most decorated and widely syndicated columnists in California history, authoring a column four times a week that offers his view and analysis of the state’s political, economic, social, and demographic trends.

CalMatters is a public interest journalism venture committed to explaining how California’s state Capitol works and why it matters. For more columns by Dan Walters, go to calmatters.org/commentary.

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