Renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer is ending her election polling operation following a significant miscalculation in her final Iowa survey for The Des Moines Register.

The poll, which showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points, was off by 16 points when Trump ultimately won the state by a 13-point margin.

Selzer acknowledged the “big miss” and suggested it may have inadvertently motivated Republican voters. Kristin Roberts, chief content officer of Gannett Media, stated, “We did not deliver on that promise when we shared results of the last Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, which did not accurately capture the outcome of the presidential election.”

Iowa Poll’s Long-Standing Reputation

The Iowa Poll, founded in 1943, has long been considered a gold standard in election polling. Selzer, who began working on the poll in 1987, has overseen six previous presidential elections with generally accurate results.

In an op-ed, Selzer revealed her decision to end polling work predated the erroneous results: “Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities.”

She added, “Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings.”

The Register’s executive editor, Carol Hunter, confirmed Selzer’s prior notice and stated the newspaper’s intention to “reimagine how to best capture public sentiment and opinion among Iowans to provide valuable and accurate insight into legislative issues and politics.”

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