Trump's election victory puts ACA subsidies in jeopardy, potentially affecting millions of Americans' access to affordable health insurance. (AP File)
- Republican control of Congress and White House could lead to less than 5% chance of extending ACA subsidies, analyst says.
- Without subsidy extension, CBO estimates nearly 4 million people may lose health coverage by 2026 due to affordability.
- Experts predict potential cuts to ACA outreach funding and support for states refusing Medicaid expansion under Republican leadership.
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Millions of Americans could lose health insurance subsidies following Donald Trump’s election victory and Republican gains in Congress. The subsidies, set to expire in 2025, were part of the 2021 American Rescue Plan and expanded assistance for Affordable Care Act (ACA) insurance purchases.
Chris Meekins, a health policy analyst at Raymond James, believes the odds of extending these subsidies are slim if Republicans sweep Congress and the White House. “If Republicans end up winning the House, in addition to the Senate and White House, having a GOP sweep, I think the odds are less than 5% they get extended,” Meekins said.
The subsidies have significantly increased ACA enrollment, particularly in Southern red states. According to the Congressional Budget Office, nearly 4 million people could lose coverage by 2026 if the subsidies aren’t extended.
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Potential Premium Increases and Coverage Losses
Cynthia Cox, director of the ACA program at KFF, warns of potential premium increases: “What we’re looking at is significant increases in what people pay for their premiums. It’s going to average more than 75% increase. For some people, it will be more than double.”
Republicans may face challenges in completely dismantling the ACA, but significant changes are possible. Lawrence Gostin, director of the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University, predicts, “President Trump will likely cut funding for outreach for ACA plans. This means fewer people will know their rights under the law and many will not sign up for ACA health care plans.”
The future of the ACA’s preventive services mandate is also uncertain, with ongoing court challenges. As the political landscape shifts, millions of Americans await decisions that could dramatically impact their access to affordable health insurance.
Read more at NBC News
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