California immigrant advocates and state officials are bracing for what they describe as the likely massive impact of a second Trump presidency on border policies — vowing to fight his plans in court even as they remain uncertain which will make it from the campaign trail to reality.

Wendy Fry

CalMatters

Trump has pledged to conduct the largest mass deportation campaign in U.S. history on Jan. 20 when he takes office; threatened to impose tariffs on Mexico if it doesn’t stop the northbound flow of migrants and fentanyl; and described plans to use the military as part of his crackdown, contemplating deploying the National Guard to aid in deportations if necessary.

“We’re going to have to seal up those borders, and we’re going to have to let people come into our country,” said the president-elect during his acceptance remarks Tuesday. “We want people to come back in, but we have to, we have to let them come back in, but they have to come in legally.”

Legal Challenges Anticipated

Lee Gelernt, an attorney with the American Civil Liberties Union who argued challenges to immigration restrictions during Trump’s first term, said “Many of the policies Trump is advocating and promising, like use of the military, are illegal and we are prepared to challenge them.” An ACLU “roadmap” on Trump’s reelection described plans to push legislators to block deportations and make cuts to Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s detention operations. It also envisioned “a civil rights firewall” to protect immigrants and litigation against deportations.

Other organizations have promised to join the fight.

“We believe Trump when he promises to enact disastrous policies that aim to tear families apart, destabilize communities, and weaken our economy,” said Lindsay Toczylowski, CEO and president of Los Angeles-based Immigrant Defenders Law Center.

“But the U.S. Constitution didn’t disappear overnight. We will use all the tools we have to protect and defend the rights of all immigrants and asylum seekers,” she added.

Those planning to fight Trump’s border policy face the strategic challenge of not knowing if or when each of his myriad border-related proposals will be implemented or how feasible and legal they will turn out to be.

California’s Immigrant Population at Risk

But immigrant advocates said the impact from his election will likely be massive. California is home to more immigrants than any other state in the nation,about 10.6 million people, as well as the most unauthorized immigrants, according to 2022 numbers compiled by the Pew Research Center. Immigrants make up more than a fourth of the state’s population, and nearly half of all children in California have at least one immigrant parent.

“If Donald Trump is successful with deportations, no state will be more impacted from a fiscal perspective, from an economic perspective,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said at a press briefing last week.

“We will use all the tools we have to protect and defend the rights of all immigrants and asylum seekers.”

Lindsay Toczylowski, CEO and president, Immigrant Defenders Law Center

State Attorney General Rob Bonta told CalMatters that his office is prepared to fight, spending the months leading up to the election developing legal strategies.

“The best way to protect California, its values, the rights of our people, is to be prepared so we won’t be flat-footed,” Bonta said days before the election. Bonta’s comments indicate that the state, which sued more than 100 times over Trump’s policies in his first term, will again be a thorn in the president’s side.

Those waiting in Tijuana to cross legally into the United States through CBP One, the federal government’s phone app, worried on Wednesday that their opportunity to seek asylum had already slipped away.

“Sadness,” is what Emir Mesa said she felt when she heard of Trump’s pending victory. The 45-year-old mother and new grandmother from Michoacán said she fled her hometown because of extreme violence there.

“We do not want to enter as illegals,” she said. “That’s why we are here in Tijuana waiting to enter properly, not to be smuggled.” She held her 15-day-old grandchild as she described how her family has been waiting six months at the Movimiento Juventud 2000 migrant shelter, located a stone’s throw from the U.S.-Mexico border.

Trump has said he plans to discontinue the Biden administration’s use of CBP One, through which migrants can apply for asylum in the U.S. But it remains unclear what will happen to people who have already spent months in Mexico on the waiting list for their initial asylum screening appointment.

Impact on US Citizens

Trump’s border policies may also have significant impacts on all Californians by disrupting trade and expanding surveillance.

His administration would have to extend the border surveillance apparatus already in place to carry out deportations on the scale he has planned, experts said. Federal authorities have used everything from camera towers to drones to ground sensors and thermal imaging to detect migrants in recent years.

“Given the indiscriminate nature of mass surveillance, it is possible that U.S. citizens and others permanently in the country will also be caught in its web,” said Petra Molnar, a Harvard faculty associate, lawyer and author of the book “The Walls Have Eyes: Surviving Migration in the Age of Artificial Intelligence.”

Trump’s plans for the border also seem poised to reverberate across regional economies and in Mexico.

“We aren’t just trading with Mexico, we’re producing together.”

Jerry Sanders, former mayor of san diego and current CEO of the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce

On Monday, Trump said he plans to impose tariffs on Mexico if the country doesn’t stop the northbound flow of migrants and fentanyl. Local business leaders scoffed as they recalled the damage to the border region’s economy during Trump’s first term. The peso slumped to a two-year low.

“It’s important to remember that we aren’t just trading with Mexico, we’re producing together,” said San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce CEO Jerry Sanders, a Republican and former mayor of the border city. “At the end of the day, this would be a tax on U.S. customers and would likely set off a domino effect of other countries imposing retaliatory measures to protect their own interests.”

A massive deportation campaign clearly would impact California’s economy.

Over half of all California workers are immigrants or children of immigrants, and collectively, the state’s undocumented residents paid nearly $8.5 billion in taxes in 2022, playing a key role in stimulating the state’s economy, according to the California Budget & Policy Center and data estimates from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.

About the Author

Wendy Fry is an Emmy-winning multimedia investigative journalist who reports on poverty and inequality for the California Divide team. Based in San Diego and Mexico, Wendy has been covering the California border region for more than 15 years and covers immigration, reparations and issues affecting San Diego-area families.

About CalMatters

CalMatters is a nonprofit, nonpartisan newsroom committed to explaining California policy and politics.