CA's Anti-Crime Measure Has 73% Support, but Rent Control Appears Headed to Defeat: Poll

State Elections

By News

Published 3 weeks ago on

October 29, 2024

The latest PPIC polling shows 54% of likely California voters opposed to the Prop. 33 rent control ballot measure while 73% favor Prop. 36, which rolls back some of the crime-sentencing reforms mandated by the previous Prop. 47. (GV Wire Composite)

Kamala Harris holds a 59% to 33% lead over Trump in the presidential race among likely California voters.
Adam Schiff leads Steve Garvey by 26 points in the California U.S. Senate race, reflecting statewide appeal.
58% of likely voters predict tough economic times ahead, with pessimism highest in Central Valley and Orange/San Diego regions.

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With Election Day approaching, California voters are solidifying their choices in key races and state propositions, according to the latest Public Policy Institute of California survey conducted Oct. 7-15.

Key Propositions Draw Mixed Support

California voters will also weigh in on 10 state propositions, including two $10 billion state bonds, three legislative constitutional amendments, and five citizen initiatives.

Proposition 36, which allows increased sentences for certain crimes, continues to lead in support, with 73% of likely voters favoring the measure.

Other measures receiving solid backing include Proposition 3 (right to marriage), Proposition 4 (climate bond), and Proposition 35 (Medi-Cal funding). In contrast, measures like Proposition 33, which expands local rent controls, face majority opposition (54% saying they would vote no).

Democrats Lead in Local House Races

When it comes to local House races, the survey indicates Democratic candidates are leading Republicans by 61% to 38%. However, in 10 competitive districts defined by the Cook Political Report, support is closely split at 50% to 48%.

Thirty percent of likely voters expressed high enthusiasm about voting in their local House races.

Harris Leads Trump in Presidential Race

In the presidential race, Democrats Kamala Harris and Tim Walz hold a commanding lead over Republicans Donald Trump and J.D. Vance among California’s likely voters, with a 59% to 33% margin.

The survey found 58% of likely voters are highly enthusiastic about voting for president this year. Both Harris and Trump’s supporters reported closely following election news at similar rates.

Schiff Ahead in US Senate Race

The survey shows a similar wide margin in California’s U.S. Senate race, where Democrat Adam Schiff leads Republican Steve Garvey 63% to 37%.

Voter satisfaction with candidate choices remains steady, with 60% expressing satisfaction with the available options. Schiff’s support is strong across demographic groups and regions, indicating broad statewide appeal.

Concerns About Economic Conditions and State Leadership

Californians are also pessimistic when looking forward to the economic conditions of the state over the next year. About six in ten adults (62%) and likely voters (58%) expect bad financial times, while four in ten or fewer expect good times (35% adults, 40% likely voters).

A majority of Democrats (54%) expect good times, while two-thirds of independents (68%) and more than eight in ten Republicans (84%) expect bad times.

Across regions, majorities expect bad times, but residents in the Central Valley and Orange/San Diego are the most pessimistic (68% each, bad times). The optimistic view reaches a majority only among African Americans (52%).

Most Californians remain confident in the state’s election system, with a majority having a great deal (32%) or quite a lot (21%) of confidence in the integrity of votes cast and counted. More than six in ten likely voters (63%) expressed similar levels of confidence, but concerns about the ease of ineligible voting continue to divide opinions along party lines.

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s approval rating remains low, with over half of adults (53%) and likely voters (52%) disapproving of his performance. Disapproval has been consistently high throughout 2024, especially among Republicans and independents.

State of the Nation and Most Pressing Issues

With the Nov. 5 election quickly approaching, most across the state continue to say the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction. About seven in ten adults and likely voters (69% each) share this sentiment, with concern particularly high among Republicans and independents. Californians’ dissatisfaction with the direction of the nation has persisted since June 2023.

When asked about the most pressing problems facing the nation, Californians pointed to the economy, unemployment, and jobs (26%) as the top issue, followed by political extremism or threats to democracy (18%), and immigration (15%). Concerns about economic challenges and democratic stability appear to resonate most strongly among voters of all political affiliations.

Read the full survey at Public Policy Institute of California.