A proposal to expand local governments’ authority to enact rent control on residential properties is gaining momentum in California.

While similar propositions faced defeats in past elections — losing by 19 points in 2018 and 20 points in 2020 — Proposition 33 shows signs of potential success, according to a Public Policy Institute of California survey conducted from Aug. 29 to Sept. 9. Among likely voters, 51% indicate they would support the measure, compared to 46% who oppose it.

Michael Weinstein, head of the Los Angeles-based AIDS Healthcare Foundation and chief financial backer of the previous rent-control campaigns, expressed optimism, saying that the third time may be the charm.

“The situation has gotten so extreme and dire and catastrophic…. We can never give up, that’s the bottom line,” Weinstein says.

Prop. 33, which is on the November ballot, aims to lift long-standing restrictions on rent control. Currently, the nearly three-decades-old Costa-Hawkins Act blocks local governments from setting rent caps on homes built after 1995 or on any single-family homes. The law also lets landlords hike the rent as much as they want after a tenant vacates.

While a more recent state law imposes a statewide cap on rent increases of 5% plus inflation, with an absolute maximum of 10%, tenant advocates argue that this ceiling remains too high.

If passed, Prop. 33 would allow local governments to regulate rents for all types of housing, including newly constructed units and rentals for new tenants.

“The potential for strict rent control across all housing types would deter investment in new housing construction, exacerbating California’s already dire housing shortage,” says Mike Nemeth, communications director for the California Apartment Association.

Related Story: Fresnans Among Nation’s Most Rent Burdened: Study

According to the Public Policy Institute of California, nearly 30% of renters in the state spend more than half their income on rent, a figure exceeded only by Florida and Louisiana. This situation has spurred a coalition of tenant organizers, labor groups, and local Democratic politicians to support Proposition 33.

The Local Perspective on Proposition 33

Census data reveals that 34% of Fresno renters spent more than half their income on rent in 2023, the fourth-highest rate among U.S. cities with over 200,000 households.

In Fresno, where housing affordability is a growing concern, city leaders are weighing the implications of the proposed measure.

Fresno City Councilmember Miguel Arias says he is open to the discussion of rent control but is hesitant about possible issues. “A lot of cities that have rent control have it much worse homeless and unhoused crisis than we do in the city of Fresno,” he noted.

Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer also expressed that the rent control proposition would not be the solution.

“There is no feeling that rent control is the solution to this, because states and cities that have incorporated rent control believe in Washington and a number of others. It’s not been successful,” Dyer said. “What has been proven successful is when you increase the supply of housing that will meet or exceed the demand for housing and that you can create that housing in an affordable fashion.”