If the 2024 presidential election is, indeed, about the battleground states, then Joe Biden and the Democrats might be in big trouble a year from now.
According to a study released Monday from Stack Data Strategy and first reported by Politico, former President Donald Trump would win 292 electoral college votes to Biden’s 246 in a hypothetical matchup even though Biden would win the national popular vote, 49% to 48%.
Powering Trump’s return to the White House: winning the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Pennyslvania, and Wisconsin — all of which Biden won in 2020.
For the record, Stack Data Strategy has worked with the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom.
However, its findings mirror those of last week’s New York Times/Siena College poll that showed Trump leading in five of six battleground states.
In addition, a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll indicated that only 33% of Americans view Biden favorably. Still, that is 4 percentage points higher than Trump’s approval rating in the same poll.
A challenge for Biden is his sinking popularity with voters who have embraced him warmly in the past. Less than half of Blacks (49%) and Hispanics (33%) have a favorable impression of Biden, according to the ABC News/Ipsos poll. That compares to exit polls showing that 87% of Black voters and 65% of Hispanic voters backed him in 2020.
Trump Would Beat Newsom, Harris: Poll
Clearly, the economy and inflation are top of mind for voters. Seventy-four percent of respondents in the ABC News/Ipsos poll said that the economy is very important to them; 69% said the same about inflation.
Interestingly, the Stack Data Strategy study concluded that Trump would beat California Gov. Gavin Newsom or Vice President Kamala Harris while Biden would romp over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in hypothetical electoral college matchups.
Biden Falsely Claims to Lead in Polls
Biden has consistently dismissed his poor poll numbers. Last week, he told reporters that he didn’t believe the New York Times/Sienna survey. He also claimed to be leading or tied with Trump in eight of 10 recent polls.
That flies in the face of a RealClear Politics poll compilation showing that Biden trails or is tied with Trump in eight of the 10 most recent polls cited by RCP.
Former Ohio state senator and progressive activist Nina Turner told the Associated Press that Biden’s supporters are “delusional” if they don’t see Trump as a real threat. Turner, who was the national co-chair of Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign, also pointed to the Times poll that showed him losing support among young voters and minorities.
“The people in the bubble — I call them the brunch bunch — can continue to spin this,” Turner said. “They do that at their own peril. What is happening on the streets is a lot different.”
Will Abortion Rights Pave the Road to Biden’s Re-Election?
While the economy, inflation, and Biden’s age are roadblocks to his re-election, the president and his campaign point to abortion access as a winning issue.
Democrats won notable contests last week in Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia often while highlighting their support for abortion access or pushing back on what they called Republican extremism.
Rob Stutzman, a GOP strategist and veteran of the presidential campaign trail, told ABC News that last week’s elections didn’t present “any good news for Republicans” and provided more “evidence that abortion could be the Democrats’ 2024 antibodies for poor ratings on the economy.”