Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
Fresno County GOP Ballot Returns Outpacing Dems. Will Trend Hold?
David Website Replacement
By David Taub, Senior Reporter
Published 2 years ago on
November 7, 2022

Share

Rain predicted for Tuesday’s election finale could affect voter turnout, Fresno County elections chief James Kus said.

“Rain or other bad weather is likely to have a damping effect on turnout (pun not intended). But Fresno County voters are a tenacious group and I expect a solid turnout tomorrow no matter the weather and the Fresno County Clerk/Registrar of Voters and our Election Workers are ready to serve the public throughout the day,” Kus said.

Fresno State political science professor Lisa Bryant confirms that the weather could play a role.

“Previous research does show that rain can slightly suppress in-person turnout, especially among people who don’t like to drive in inclement weather (e.g., elderly, novice drivers). There is no evidence that it hurts one party over the other,” Bryant said.

She added a caveat that most of the research is from the East Coast and before widespread vote-by-mail and early voting options.

“That said, Fresno County does have fairly convenient drop boxes and there is a drive-through ballot drop off available at the Clerk’s office, so there are options if people don’t want to walk too far in the rain,” Bryant said.

Ballot tracking information provided by elections research firm Political Data Inc. on Tuesday showed Republican ballot returns across Fresno County outpacing those from Democrats by seven percentage points (29% to 22%).

Turnout Projections

What might the final turnout look like?

“I do not have a prediction on turnout,” Kus said. “I can tell you that Fresno County has historically had about a 50% turnout for gubernatorial general elections, like this one,” Kus said.

Traditionally, presidential elections have a higher turnout than midterms, and general elections higher than primaries.

The most recent midterm general election in November 2018 saw a 56% turnout. That was under the old system, before the 2020 expansion of early voting and ease of voting by mail.

The 2020 presidential general election saw an 8% bump over the old system of 2016.

The number of registered voters has also increased with every election, with one aberration — the 2021 special election to recall the governor.

Kus explains that voter registration can be a “fluid process.”

“2021 and early 2022 have been a busy year for Fresno County Elections, and that has meant a lot of official Election mailings. That presents a lot of voter registration update opportunities during a traditionally quiet period. As we have received back undeliverable mailing, we have had the opportunity to tighten our active voter lists and provide voters the opportunity to update their mailing addresses. I expect the registration number will continue to increase as we move towards the 2024 elections (and we are already planning for approximately 520,000 registered voters for November 2024),” Kus said.

Vote-by-Mail Top Option

Since Fresno County became a Voters Choice Act county starting with the 2020 primary, voters have dramatically increased returning ballots by mail.

Since 2020, the county has opened voting centers at least four days in advance, with some early as 11 days. Also, every voter received a ballot by mail that can be returned without postage.

Comparing apples to apples, 65% of voters returned ballots in the 2018 midterm primary by mail. That number jumped to 92% this past June for the same type of election.

For the presidential general election, vote-by-mail increased from 55% in 2016 to 86% in 2020.

Early voting figures are likely to increase as well. This year’s general election has already surpassed early voting in the June primary. In 2018, 12% voted before Election Day; 15% voted early this June.

Comparative presidential elections also saw a significant bump in early voting.

Several Voting Centers Available

Ballots can be returned in the mail (no postage required), at voting centers or drop-boxes, or traditionally in-person voting.

A list of the 52 Fresno County voting centers (which replaced the traditional neighborhood precincts) and drop boxes can be found by clicking on the link. An interactive map can be found here.

Also, voters can drop off votes in a drive-thru system at the main county election office on Kern Street (between L and M streets) in downtown Fresno. That option is Tuesday, from 7 a.m. until 8 p.m.

RELATED TOPICS:

DON'T MISS

Rural California, Reliant on the Trump Administration for Jobs, Braces for Cuts

DON'T MISS

Wired Wednesday: CEMEX’s New Mining Plan for the San Joaquin River

DON'T MISS

Trump Fires NSC Officials a Day After Far-Right Activist Raises Concerns to Him

DON'T MISS

China Halts Approvals for New US Investment Projects

DON'T MISS

Measles Spreads to Central Texas; 5 States Have Active Outbreaks

DON'T MISS

Trump Tariff Fears Erase $2 Trillion From US Stocks

DON'T MISS

Startup Offers Controversial Microplastic Blood Cleansing Treatment

DON'T MISS

Senate Confirms Mehmet Oz to Take Lead of Medicare and Medicaid Agency

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

Pence Will Receive the Profile in Courage Award From the JFK Library for His Actions on Jan. 6

UP NEXT

Order That Kept Water in the Kern River Reversed by 5th District Court of Appeal

UP NEXT

As Dem Candidates for Governor Increase, They Wait for Harris to Decide

UP NEXT

Valley Crime Stoppers’ Most Wanted Person of the Day: Christopher Robert Sharkey

UP NEXT

Fresno County Authorities Need Help Finding Family of Alejandro Solis

UP NEXT

Lilly Is a Young Terrier Who Loves Dogs, Cats, and People

UP NEXT

Colorado Man Charged with Pointing Laser at Fresno Sheriff Helicopter

UP NEXT

Fresno Firefighters Save Dog From Canal and Now She’s Ready for Adoption

UP NEXT

State Center Trustees Render Split Decision on Future of PLAs

UP NEXT

The ‘Six’ Wives of King Henry VIII Sing Their Hearts Out in Fresno

UP NEXT

Xavier Becerra Enters 2026 California Governor’s Race

David Taub,
Senior Reporter
Curiosity drives David Taub. The award-winning journalist might be shy, but feels mighty with a recorder in his hand. He doesn't see it his job to "hold public officials accountable," but does see it to provide readers (and voters) the information needed to make intelligent choices. Taub has been honored with several writing awards from the California News Publishers Association. He's just happy to have his stories read. Joining GV Wire in 2016, Taub covers politics, government and elections, mainly in the Fresno/Clovis area. He also writes columns about local eateries (Appetite for Fresno), pro wrestling (Off the Bottom Rope), and media (Media Man). Prior to joining the online news source, Taub worked as a radio producer for KMJ and PowerTalk 96.7 in Fresno. He also worked as an assignment editor for KCOY-TV in Santa Maria, California, and KSEE-TV in Fresno. He has also worked behind the scenes for several sports broadcasts, including the NCAA basketball tournament, and the Super Bowl. When not spending time with his family, Taub loves to officially score Fresno Grizzlies games. Growing up in the San Francisco Bay Area, Taub is a die-hard Giants and 49ers fan. He graduated from the University of Michigan with dual degrees in communications and political science. Go Blue! You can contact David at 559-492-4037 or at Send an Email

China Halts Approvals for New US Investment Projects

15 hours ago

Measles Spreads to Central Texas; 5 States Have Active Outbreaks

15 hours ago

Trump Tariff Fears Erase $2 Trillion From US Stocks

15 hours ago

Startup Offers Controversial Microplastic Blood Cleansing Treatment

15 hours ago

Senate Confirms Mehmet Oz to Take Lead of Medicare and Medicaid Agency

17 hours ago

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

18 hours ago

Pence Will Receive the Profile in Courage Award From the JFK Library for His Actions on Jan. 6

18 hours ago

Politics Turns Ugly for a Conservative Running for Fresno State Student Body President

19 hours ago

Pentagon’s Watchdog to Review Hegseth’s Use of Signal App to Convey Plans for Houthi Strike

19 hours ago

President Trump’s Tariffs Could Be the Political Tipping Point

20 hours ago

Rural California, Reliant on the Trump Administration for Jobs, Braces for Cuts

This story was originally published by CalMatters. Sign up for their newsletters. Far from the halls of power in Washington, the forested ha...

36 minutes ago

36 minutes ago

Rural California, Reliant on the Trump Administration for Jobs, Braces for Cuts

14 hours ago

Wired Wednesday: CEMEX’s New Mining Plan for the San Joaquin River

President Donald Trump speaks during an event to announce new tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House, Wednesday, April 2, 2025, in Washington. (AP/Mark Schiefelbein)
14 hours ago

Trump Fires NSC Officials a Day After Far-Right Activist Raises Concerns to Him

15 hours ago

China Halts Approvals for New US Investment Projects

15 hours ago

Measles Spreads to Central Texas; 5 States Have Active Outbreaks

15 hours ago

Trump Tariff Fears Erase $2 Trillion From US Stocks

15 hours ago

Startup Offers Controversial Microplastic Blood Cleansing Treatment

Dr. Mehmet Oz, President Donald Trump's pick to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, seated right, gives a thumbs-up alongside his wife Lisa Oz, seated left, with friends and family after he testified at his confirmation hearing before the Senate Finance Committee, on Capitol Hill in Washington, Friday, March 14, 2025. (AP/Ben Curtis)
17 hours ago

Senate Confirms Mehmet Oz to Take Lead of Medicare and Medicaid Agency

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend