Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
Control of the House Could Come Down to Valadao-Salas Race
By admin
Published 3 years ago on
June 15, 2022

Share

 

San Francisco and Bakersfield are 251 miles apart as a condor would fly but culturally and politically, they might as well be on different planets — and that also applies to their congressional representatives.

Dan Walters with a serious expression

Dan Walters

CalMatters

Opinion

Uber-progressive San Francisco’s Nancy Pelosi is the long-serving Democratic leader — and current speaker — of the House while very conservative Bakersfield’s Kevin McCarthy leads the Republican minority and would displace Pelosi if the GOP recaptures control of Congress this year.

Republicans need to gain just five seats in November to take over and uniformly, polling and other tests of political sentiment indicate that with President Joe Biden’s unpopularity, driven by high inflation and other issues, the GOP is well-positioned to win control.

Democrats hope they can stave off defeat by tying former President Donald Trump to the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol by his supporters and motivating their voters to oppose a pending Supreme Court decision eroding abortion rights.

It’s possible, although unlikely, that whether Pelosi retains the speakership or cedes it to McCarthy will ultimately hinge on a few California duels, set up by changes in congressional district boundaries and outcomes of last week’s primary election.

A Look at Four Pivotal Races

On paper, as many as six or even seven California congressional seats could change partisan hands in November, but four — two now held by Democrats and two by Republicans — loom large on the political radar.

— Republican Mike Garcia, a former fighter pilot, defeated Christy Smith, a Democratic assemblywoman, in a special election for a congressional seat in Los Angeles’ northern suburbs in 2020. He then eked out a 333-vote win over Smith for a full term later that year, despite a 7.5% Democratic voter registration edge. Garcia hopes his third matchup with Smith this year will also be a charm, but the new 27th Congressional District has a 12%-plus Democratic voter margin, making him decidedly more vulnerable.

— Katie Porter, a Democratic congresswoman from Orange County who has acquired a high national political profile, won her Irvine-centered district despite its slight Republican voter registration margin and her new district (CD 47) now has a slight Democratic edge, which should make re-election easier. However, Republican challenger Scott Baugh, a former assemblyman and current Orange County GOP chairman, is a formidable fundraiser whose hopes ride on Biden’s unpopularity.

—Hanford Republican David Valadao has been elected and re-elected by San Joaquin Valley voters despite a lopsided Democratic voter registration advantage. His newly redrawn, three-county district (CD 22) favors Democrats by more than 17 percentage points but Valadao hopes that his independent image — he was one of 10 Republican House members who voted to impeach Trump — will save him again. Having overcome stiff primary challenges from two other GOP candidates, Valadao now faces Rudy Salas, a Democratic assemblyman from Kern County who counts on a high turnout of Latino voters to flip the seat.

Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, is sworn in by Republican leader Kevin McCarthy in 2021 after Valadao regained his seat in the House. (GV Wire File)

—Democrat Mike Levin has won two terms in Congress from a coastal region — northern San Diego County and southern Orange County — that was long a Republican stronghold, but the very slight Democratic voter registration edge of his redrawn district (CD 49) fuels Republican hopes of a win if national trends invade the turf. Former San Juan Capistrano Mayor Brian Maryott beat four other Republican hopefuls for the right to take on Levin.

Overall, it appears that Democrats have a better chance of unseating Garcia and/or Valadao than Republicans have of ousting Porter and Levin. Could a two-seat Democratic gain in California stave off a GOP takeover of the House? Unlikely, but certainly in the realm of possibility.

About the Author

Dan Walters has been a journalist for nearly 60 years, spending all but a few of those years working for California newspapers. He began his professional career in 1960, at age 16, at the Humboldt Times. For more columns by Walters, go to calmatters.org/commentary.

RELATED TOPICS:

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

Trump Says Putin May Not Want Peace and May Need to Be ‘Dealt With Differently’

DON'T MISS

Is It Bad to Chew Gum All Day?

DON'T MISS

Dollar Doubts Dominate Gathering of Global Economic Leaders

DON'T MISS

US Judge Temporarily Stops West Texas Immigrant Deportations Under Alien Enemies Act

DON'T MISS

Shedeur Sanders’ Long Wait Ends When Browns Take Him in the 5th Round of the NFL Draft

DON'T MISS

Only About Half of Republicans Say Trump Has Focused on the Right Priorities

DON'T MISS

ICE Deports the Mother of an Infant and a 2-Year-Old Who Is a US Citizen

DON'T MISS

Israeli Airstrike Kills 10 People, Half of Them Children

DON'T MISS

Shedeur Sanders Is Still Waiting for a Call as the NFL Draft Enters the Final Day

DON'T MISS

Israel’s AI Experiments in the War in Gaza Raise Ethical Concerns

UP NEXT

Is It Bad to Chew Gum All Day?

UP NEXT

Dollar Doubts Dominate Gathering of Global Economic Leaders

UP NEXT

US Judge Temporarily Stops West Texas Immigrant Deportations Under Alien Enemies Act

UP NEXT

Shedeur Sanders’ Long Wait Ends When Browns Take Him in the 5th Round of the NFL Draft

UP NEXT

Only About Half of Republicans Say Trump Has Focused on the Right Priorities

UP NEXT

ICE Deports the Mother of an Infant and a 2-Year-Old Who Is a US Citizen

UP NEXT

Israeli Airstrike Kills 10 People, Half of Them Children

UP NEXT

Shedeur Sanders Is Still Waiting for a Call as the NFL Draft Enters the Final Day

UP NEXT

Israel’s AI Experiments in the War in Gaza Raise Ethical Concerns

UP NEXT

Paul Skenes Strikes Out 9, Wins Duel With Yamamoto in Pirates’ Victory Over Dodgers

US Judge Temporarily Stops West Texas Immigrant Deportations Under Alien Enemies Act

13 hours ago

Shedeur Sanders’ Long Wait Ends When Browns Take Him in the 5th Round of the NFL Draft

13 hours ago

Only About Half of Republicans Say Trump Has Focused on the Right Priorities

16 hours ago

ICE Deports the Mother of an Infant and a 2-Year-Old Who Is a US Citizen

16 hours ago

Israeli Airstrike Kills 10 People, Half of Them Children

16 hours ago

Shedeur Sanders Is Still Waiting for a Call as the NFL Draft Enters the Final Day

16 hours ago

Israel’s AI Experiments in the War in Gaza Raise Ethical Concerns

17 hours ago

Paul Skenes Strikes Out 9, Wins Duel With Yamamoto in Pirates’ Victory Over Dodgers

17 hours ago

Eovaldi Outlasts Verlander as Rangers Beat Giants

17 hours ago

Rams Take Oregon Tight End Terrance Ferguson in Second Round After Trading Out of First

17 hours ago

Trump Says Putin May Not Want Peace and May Need to Be ‘Dealt With Differently’

President Donald Trump said Saturday that Russia’s escalating bombardment of Ukraine had left him concerned that Russia did not want to end ...

12 hours ago

12 hours ago

Trump Says Putin May Not Want Peace and May Need to Be ‘Dealt With Differently’

12 hours ago

Is It Bad to Chew Gum All Day?

12 hours ago

Dollar Doubts Dominate Gathering of Global Economic Leaders

13 hours ago

US Judge Temporarily Stops West Texas Immigrant Deportations Under Alien Enemies Act

13 hours ago

Shedeur Sanders’ Long Wait Ends When Browns Take Him in the 5th Round of the NFL Draft

16 hours ago

Only About Half of Republicans Say Trump Has Focused on the Right Priorities

16 hours ago

ICE Deports the Mother of an Infant and a 2-Year-Old Who Is a US Citizen

16 hours ago

Israeli Airstrike Kills 10 People, Half of Them Children

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend