Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

Despite Last-Minute Changes, Senate Bill Deals Big Blow to Renewable Energy

10 hours ago

Trump-Backed Tax-Cut and Spending Bill Passes US Senate

12 hours ago

Homeland Security Secretary Noem Says CNN May Be Prosecuted Over Report on Migration App

12 hours ago

Israeli Officials to Hold Ceasefire Talks in Washington Amid Military Escalation in Gaza

13 hours ago

Trump Escalates Feud With Musk, Threatens Tesla, SpaceX Support

13 hours ago

Musk Vows to Punish Lawmakers Who Back Trump’s Spending Bill

1 day ago

Will Valadao Spoil Trump’s Plan for July 4th ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Signing?

1 day ago

Shaver Lake and Reedley 4th of July Shows Are Wednesday. Who Else Is Celebrating?

1 day ago
Redistricting Cements Democrats' Control of California: Walters
By admin
Published 3 years ago on
January 3, 2022

Share

Superficially, California’s politics seem poised for a big upheaval in this election year, but appearances can be deceiving.

The illusion of major change comes from the redrawing of 172 congressional and legislative districts by the state’s independent redistricting commission to reflect population shifts revealed by the 2020 census.

It’s Mostly Musical Chairs

The boundary changes, driven by the 14-member commission’s obsession with “communities of interest” that it defined in purely subjective, ever-shifting terms, will generate a substantial turnover in the 52-member congressional delegation, the 40-member state Senate and the 80-seat state Assembly.

Dan Walters

CalMatters

Opinion

Much of it will be a game of musical chairs as politicians shift from one venue to another. Several senior members of the congressional delegation are calling it quits, opening up opportunities for state legislators to advance their careers. The redistricting plans also throw a few incumbents into the same districts, forcing them to alter career plans.

The 2011 California redistricting and the 2012 elections brought a bumper crop of new legislators into the Capitol who will face automatic retirement in 2024 due to the 12-year limit on legislative service, so several of them are planning bids for Congress or statewide office this year.

The commission was attempting to comply with a set of conflicting mandates, not only to equalize the populations of legislative and congressional districts, but to meet the demands of ethnic and cultural “communities of interest” for dedicated legislative seats and to comply with the federal Voting Rights Act.

Expect More Non-White Lawmakers

The Voting Rights Act indirectly mandates creating more districts likely to elect non-white members, thus increasingly the likelihood that more of those winning legislative seats in this year’s elections will be Latino, Asian or Black.

The communities whose demands were met are overwhelmingly Democratic and even if the commission had ignored the Voting Rights Act and the “communities of interest” credo, its maps would favor Democrats because fewer than 25% of registered voters are Republicans and Democrats outnumber them almost 2-to-1.

If one defines “gerrymandering” as pre-ordaining who wins a legislative or congressional seat by drawing district lines, this was gerrymandering, albeit not for overtly partisan purposes. That said, the partisan effect will be to cement the Democratic Party’s overwhelming control of the Legislature and the congressional delegation.

The current Legislature is roughly 75% Democratic and there’s little doubt that the one elected in November will be equally lopsided in partisan makeup. The faces may change but not the Legislature’s left-of-center tilt.

States Loses a Congressional Seat

The only real mystery emanating from the new maps is whether Democrats will increase their hold on the congressional delegation. In 2018, the state’s disdain for Donald Trump manifested itself in a debacle for Republican members of Congress, cutting their ranks from a paltry 14 seats to just seven. The GOP rebounded a bit in 2020 and now holds 11 seats.

The state is losing a congressional seat due to slow population growth in the last decade, thus requiring an adjustment that wound up costing Los Angeles County one of its seats. Nevertheless, the overall thrust of the new congressional map favors Democrats and whether the party makes gains in California could play a role in which party controls the House.

Republicans need to gain just five seats to regain control and the increase in seats in fast-growing pro-GOP states such as Texas, plus Republican-friendly gerrymanders in those states and the nation’s overall political sentiment favor a shift of power.

However, if it’s closer than expected, Democratic gains in California could make the difference and a handful of tossup contests in the state’s newly reconfigured districts will draw heavy attention.

About the Author

Dan Walters has been a journalist for nearly 60 years, spending all but a few of those years working for California newspapers. He began his professional career in 1960, at age 16, at the Humboldt Times. For more columns by Walters, go to calmatters.org/commentary.

RELATED TOPICS:

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

Trump Pulls Back 150 Guard Troops From Federal Duties in California

DON'T MISS

Trump Says Israel Has Agreed to Conditions to Finalize 60-Day Gaza Ceasefire

DON'T MISS

Fresno County Man Arrested for Suspected Arson Hours After Separate Wildfire

DON'T MISS

New California Environmental Rollbacks Could Boost Housing Projects in Fresno

DON'T MISS

Iran Made Preparations to Mine the Strait of Hormuz, US Sources Say

DON'T MISS

Fresno Unified’s Embattled Nikki Henry Exits. ‘I Own My Mistake. I Won’t Let It Own Me.’

DON'T MISS

Trump Floats Daughter-in-Law Lara Trump for Senate Run in North Carolina

DON'T MISS

Google Hit With $314 Million US Verdict in Cellular Data Class Action

DON'T MISS

Tulare County Wildfire Prompts Advisory in Three Rivers Area

DON'T MISS

O’Brien Launches Fresno County Schools Chief Campaign by Handing Out ‘Homework’

UP NEXT

Trump Says Israel Has Agreed to Conditions to Finalize 60-Day Gaza Ceasefire

UP NEXT

Fresno County Man Arrested for Suspected Arson Hours After Separate Wildfire

UP NEXT

New California Environmental Rollbacks Could Boost Housing Projects in Fresno

UP NEXT

Iran Made Preparations to Mine the Strait of Hormuz, US Sources Say

UP NEXT

Fresno Unified’s Embattled Nikki Henry Exits. ‘I Own My Mistake. I Won’t Let It Own Me.’

UP NEXT

Trump Floats Daughter-in-Law Lara Trump for Senate Run in North Carolina

UP NEXT

Google Hit With $314 Million US Verdict in Cellular Data Class Action

UP NEXT

Tulare County Wildfire Prompts Advisory in Three Rivers Area

UP NEXT

O’Brien Launches Fresno County Schools Chief Campaign by Handing Out ‘Homework’

UP NEXT

Trump Says US Could Reach Trade Deal With India, Casts Doubt on Deal With Japan

New California Environmental Rollbacks Could Boost Housing Projects in Fresno

5 hours ago

Iran Made Preparations to Mine the Strait of Hormuz, US Sources Say

6 hours ago

Fresno Unified’s Embattled Nikki Henry Exits. ‘I Own My Mistake. I Won’t Let It Own Me.’

6 hours ago

Trump Floats Daughter-in-Law Lara Trump for Senate Run in North Carolina

6 hours ago

Google Hit With $314 Million US Verdict in Cellular Data Class Action

6 hours ago

Tulare County Wildfire Prompts Advisory in Three Rivers Area

7 hours ago

O’Brien Launches Fresno County Schools Chief Campaign by Handing Out ‘Homework’

7 hours ago

Trump Says US Could Reach Trade Deal With India, Casts Doubt on Deal With Japan

7 hours ago

Jury Reaches Verdict on Some Counts at Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs’ Sex Trafficking Trial

7 hours ago

How Wimbledon Is Tackling Its Hottest Opening on Record

7 hours ago

Trump Pulls Back 150 Guard Troops From Federal Duties in California

LOS ANGELES — The Trump administration released about 150 National Guard troops on Tuesday in the first pullback since it dispatched a milit...

4 hours ago

4 hours ago

Trump Pulls Back 150 Guard Troops From Federal Duties in California

An Israeli military convoy manoeuvres near the Israel-Gaza border, as seen from Israel, July 1, 2025. (Reuters/Amir Cohen)
5 hours ago

Trump Says Israel Has Agreed to Conditions to Finalize 60-Day Gaza Ceasefire

Abel Joel Garcia Zarate, 39, of Biola, was arrested Sunday, June, 30, 2025, in Madera County on suspicion of starting a wildfire just hours after crews responded to a separate blaze sparked by farm equipment. (Madera County SO)
5 hours ago

Fresno County Man Arrested for Suspected Arson Hours After Separate Wildfire

5 hours ago

New California Environmental Rollbacks Could Boost Housing Projects in Fresno

An aerial view of the Iranian shores and the island of Qeshm in the strait of Hormuz, December 10, 2023. REUTERSStringerFile Photo
6 hours ago

Iran Made Preparations to Mine the Strait of Hormuz, US Sources Say

6 hours ago

Fresno Unified’s Embattled Nikki Henry Exits. ‘I Own My Mistake. I Won’t Let It Own Me.’

Lara Trump looks on during Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump's rally, at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., November 6, 2024. (Reuters File)
6 hours ago

Trump Floats Daughter-in-Law Lara Trump for Senate Run in North Carolina

A Google logo is seen at a company research facility in Mountain View, California, U.S., May 13, 2025. (Reuters File)
6 hours ago

Google Hit With $314 Million US Verdict in Cellular Data Class Action

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend