A new poll concludes that the “hopes of recall proponents that apathy might keep Democrats away and allow (Gov. Gavin) Newsom to be replaced by a Republican appear unrealistic.”

The Hoover Institution and Stanford University’s Bill Lane Center for the American West partnered with YouGov to poll voters ahead of next Tuesday’s gubernatorial recall election.

The poll released Tuesday is based on the responses of 1,618 likely voters who said they had returned their ballots or would definitely do so before election day.

57% Oppose Recall

The poll, which was conducted Aug. 27 through Sept. 1, indicated that 57% of voters are opposed to the recall while 43% supported it.

Among the candidates running to replace Newsom if the recall is successful, conservative talk-show host Larry Elder led the way with 24% support.

However, “none” was the top response at 39%. The Newsom campaign, which has raised $70 million thus far, has promoted the idea that voters should mark “no” on the recall and not vote for a potential replacement.

Voters Prefer Newsom Over Elder by Wide Margin

The pollsters also asked voters which candidate they preferred in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. Newsom enjoyed a 61% to 39% edge over Elder.

In analyzing the responses, the pollsters concluded:

“Unlike the political environment surrounding the 2003 recall, when the Democratic incumbent, Gray Davis, was deeply unpopular and many Democrats were unhappy about how things were going in the state, Newsom’s Democratic base is neither unhappy nor dispirited. Newsom himself, while not beloved, remains moderately popular. It is Republicans who are discontent and, by themselves, there are too few to carry out a successful recall.”

This poll was conducted via an internet survey with a sample size of 2,043 registered California voters. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 2.8%.

29% of Votes Returned

According to Political Data Inc., 29% of Californians had returned their recall ballots through Sunday. There are 10.4 million registered Democrats and 5.3 million registered Republicans in the state. Another 6.5 million registered voters are independent or affiliated with other parties.

You can dive deeper into the poll at this link.