A new poll suggests that Gov. Gavin Newsom will fend off efforts to recall him from office.

The Public Policy Institute of California’s poll of likely voters indicated that 58% will vote “no” on the recall while 39% will vote “yes.”

The poll also found that partisanship is driving how Californians view the Sept. 14 recall election.

According to the PPIC, 90% of Democrats oppose the recall, and 82% of Republicans support it. Independents are closely divided, with 49% of them opposed and 44% supporting.

The 58% opposition to the recall is similar to PPIC poll results for May and March.

COVID Is No. 1 Issue

More than one in five respondents said that the pandemic is the top issue facing California. Jobs (12%) were second, followed by homelessness (11%).

Political analysts have speculated that the special election could produce low voter turnout. But 47% of the respondents to the PPIC poll said they were more enthusiastic about voting than usual.

However, Republicans (54%) and Independents (53%) expressed more enthusiasm for voting than Democrats (40%) did.

For a deep-dive analysis of the poll, check out Carla Marinucci’s story at Politico.

Elder Is Runaway Top Replacement Choice

While the question becomes moot if voters reject Newsom’s recall, conservative talk-show host Larry Elder topped the replacement candidates with 26% support. None of the other candidates eclipsed 5%.

The PPIC conducted the poll Aug. 20-29. The results include responses from 1,080 likely voters. The error margin is plus-or-minus 4.5%.

21% of Ballots Returned

The latest count from Political Data Inc. indicates that 21% of the state’s registered voters have turned in ballots.

“Around the state, we have had many special elections that have had turnout in the high-teens to mid-30% range, the kind of electorate that could have very strange outcomes,” said analyst Paul Mitchell. “But this recall special election seems to be poised to blast past those kinds of numbers.”