A new poll that reaches likely voters through social media indicates 57% opposition to the recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Change Research surveyed 782 likely voters Sunday through Wednesday of this week. The poll reported 42% support of the recall, with just 1% of voters undecided.

Republican Larry Elder is the runaway leader among the potential replacement candidates with 27% backing. Kevin Paffrath, a Democrat, follows at 6%.

The Change Research poll’s results differ from other recent polls indicating that voters are closely divided on the recall.

Trump Voters Back Elder

“Those planning to vote to retain Gov. Newsom were also asked what was most motivating their ‘no’ vote. The majority, 51%, said they wanted Newsom to continue serving as governor,” said Change Research’s Ben Greenfield in a news release.

“Another 38% don’t want a Republican setting California’s policies. Five percent are mostly worried that, in the event of Dianne Feinstein’s Senate seat opening up, a Republican would appoint her successor. Another 7% wrote in answers, many of which lamented the cost of the recall election, particularly with only a year until Newsom’s term ends.”

Greenfield said that 67% of those backing Elder said they voted to re-elect Donald Trump as president in 2020.

Change Research uses targeted social media ads and text messages to seek out respondents. The elections website FiveThirtyEight gives Change Research a B-minus grade for polling accuracy.

A summary of the poll’s methodology and poll questions are at this link.

13% of Ballots Returned

Political Data Inc.’s Paul Mitchell reported Friday morning that nearly 3 million recall ballots are in. That’s 13% of the 22 million ballots sent out.

Through Thursday, 38% of voters age 50-and-up had mailed back their ballots.

The complete report is at this link.

You can sign up for Mitchell’s returned recall ballot count report here.

Harris Farms Supports Newsom

On Thursday. one of the Valley’s biggest growers, Harris Farms of Coalinga, contributed $12,500 to the committee opposing Newsom’s recall.