Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
What Experts Are Saying About Local Home Prices in 2022 and Beyond
David Website Replacement
By David Taub, Senior Reporter
Published 4 years ago on
July 12, 2021

Share

Homes in the Fresno-Clovis-Madera area continue to increase in price, whether new or old. But experts are concerned that market changes could be on the horizon.

It is not for lack of demand, but regulations.

Permits for new homes in the Fresno-Clovis-Madera region are outpacing last year. But, building industry leaders are concerned about whether those numbers can continue through 2022.

What is worrying them is how to implement a new system to mitigate the effects of home building on traffic and the environment known as Vehicles Miles Traveled.

“If mortgage rates stay low and lumber prices come down, the prospect for construction activity for 2022 is positive,” said Mike Prandini, president and CEO of the Building Industry Association of Fresno/Madera Counties.

“However, the future beyond that doesn’t look too bright as home builders try to figure out how to deal with Vehicle Miles Traveled,” Prandini said.

Cities See Continued Demand

Permits for new home construction were down year-over-year between 2019 and 2020 for Fresno, Clovis and southeast Madera County. Based on the first five months of 2021, things were steadily picking up.

BIA projected that the number of permits issued and the number of units sold for 2021 will be higher than in 2020.  Madera County is expected to have more than 600 permits issued, many in the fast growing area along Highway 41. Meanwhile, Clovis and Fresno combined are projected to have more than 2,300 permits issued and over 1,900 homes sold.

“We’re absolutely seeing a demand. Fresno a prime place to be. We are hearing a lot of optimism from the building industry and we’re just here to help support them, get units in the ground,” city of Fresno planning director Jennifer Clark said.

Clark expects permits pulled this year to be the highest since the 2008 recession.

“We would anticipate somewhere in the neighborhood of of over 2,000 units for calendar year 2021,” Clark said.

She is anticipating continued demand for 2022.

“We’re still seeing really, really strong demand,” Clark said. “Based on my discussions with the residential industry, both on the multi-family and the single family side, they feel very optimistic about the next calendar year. I would lean on them to tell me where they think the market is going. But certainly, we continue to see strong demand for issuing building permits.”

Clark sees a balance between new development in “infill” areas — those vacant lots in the interior of the city — and new growth areas.

“There is a lot of strong demand for new growth areas, in particular west of Highway 99 and the Southeast Development Area. So there’s there’s a lot of demand in both both of those areas for larger new subdivisions,” Clark said.

Building Industry Expects Slowdown

But, Prandini does not expect that to last.

“Almost all builders are working on maps that were approved before July 1, 2020.  For Fresno and Madera counties, once those lots have been built out, there are not many lots being processed to replace them,” Prandini said.

How to deal with a change in mitigation measures worries builders.

“There have been no new projects submitted for more than 50 units (the threshold at which VMT applies), or about 10 acres, since July 1, 2020 and it is not expected that any such projects will be submitted before mid-2022.  Based on current information, it is likely that new homes built in new tracts approved in 2022 will be much more expensive.  This will cause a reduction in demand that in turn reduces the supply of new homes thereby exacerbating an already short supply,” Prandini said.

Both Fresno and Clovis are developing their VMT mitigation programs. Clovis councilmembers will discussing their proposed measures at their meeting Monday night.

Clark expects the city of Fresno’s VMT plan to be presented to city council members in the fall.

“I don’t know that we have enough information to say exactly how it could or will impact sales in the future. I do know that city of Fresno has a very robust public transit system which assists in reducing those VMT in most areas of the city,” Clark said. Mixed use projects will also help reduce VMT.

Real Estate: Fewer Homes, Higher Prices

Even if new home building slows down, the inventory of existing homes for sale could increase in the next year, according to the Fresno Association of Realtors.

“Yes, the market is very hot. We are way up from 2019 and 2020,” FAR president Annie Foreman said.

For the 12-month period ending in June 2021, the number of homes for sale is down 29%, but sales are up 3.8%. The median home sale in Fresno County in June was $363,000, up 19% from a year prior.

“That’s pretty dramatic,” Foreman said.

And sales continue, up in the last month 17%.

“There is suggestions that interest rates are creeping up and they’re going to continue to creep up. And the buyers have fatigue from the whole last year between the pandemic and the competition of writing several offers,” Foreman said.

Foreman said the pandemic had a large role to play in the hot market, depressing inventory. Sellers were concerned about selling during COVID and having people inside their homes.

“A few months into the shutdown, the buyer pool increased because so many people said, oh, wait, I don’t just sleep at my home anymore. I work here. It’s my playground. I teach school here. I need a bigger place,” Foreman said.

Demand increased, especially from buyers from Southern California and the Bay Area.

“If you look at being able to work remote, would you rather work remote in 700 square-foot studio or for less money you get a 2,500 square-foot home with a backyard in the Central Valley.  That buyer pool just dramatically increased because of the pandemic, people coming from out of the area and our own residents who are wanting more space,” Foreman said.

Foreman sees more homes coming online and more buyers priced out of the market.

I’m not really predicting a decrease in prices. I’m seeing more of a leveling out. Increasing 19% (in sale value) in one year is really dramatic. That’s not something that we are used to.  I don’t see that sustaining long term,” Foreman said.

Given the difficulties new home builders are facing, Foreman says buying an existing home is a better option.

“The cost to build a home right now is more than ever.  Because of the pandemic, cost of supplies are through the roof. The labor pool is way decreased.  And then the regulations in California are so crazy.  Home builders do to make a profit, they’re going to have to increase the prices,” Foreman said.

Foreman says all areas of Fresno and Clovis are hot right now, but buyers  prefer homes in the Clovis Unified School District.

RELATED TOPICS:

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

Scientists Find Strongest Evidence yet of Life on an Alien Planet

DON'T MISS

Ohtani Hits 448-Foot Homer in 7-Run 1st Inning, Dodgers Sweep Rockies

DON'T MISS

Ursula Is Beautiful, Athletic, and Seeking Your Companionship

DON'T MISS

EU Announces $1.8 Billion Aid Package for Palestinian Authority

DON'T MISS

How Trump Might Unwittingly Cut Emissions From Online Shopping

DON'T MISS

Trump Slams Fed’s Powell Over Rates, Saying Termination Can’t ‘Come Fast Enough’

DON'T MISS

Dollar, US Stocks Find Some Stability as Trade Talks Help the Mood

DON'T MISS

Merced’s Own Super Bloom Is Here. How This Grassland Reserve Protects Endangered Species

DON'T MISS

ICE Smashes Car Window to Detain Asylum Seeker, Family Says

DON'T MISS

Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs Seeks Two-Month Delay of May 5 Trial

UP NEXT

Dollar, US Stocks Find Some Stability as Trade Talks Help the Mood

UP NEXT

Temu and Shein Say They’re Raising Prices Due to Tariffs

UP NEXT

White House to Use 30,000 Real Eggs for Easter Egg Roll Despite Shortages, Dividing Farmers

UP NEXT

I Have Never Been More Afraid for My Country’s Future

UP NEXT

Fed’s Powell: Economy Slowing in Q1, Can Wait for Greater Clarity

UP NEXT

Wall Street Tumbles, Nvidia Slumps After New US Chip Export Controls

UP NEXT

Retail Sales Rise 1.4% in March as Shoppers Stock Up on Big Ticket Items Ahead of Tariffs

UP NEXT

Dollar Resumes Fall as Investors Wait on Trade Talks

UP NEXT

Joe Biden Will Speak About Social Security in His Return to the National Stage

UP NEXT

Wall Street Edges up as Investors Hold on to Tariff Relief Hopes

David Taub,
Senior Reporter
Curiosity drives David Taub. The award-winning journalist might be shy, but feels mighty with a recorder in his hand. He doesn't see it his job to "hold public officials accountable," but does see it to provide readers (and voters) the information needed to make intelligent choices. Taub has been honored with several writing awards from the California News Publishers Association. He's just happy to have his stories read. Joining GV Wire in 2016, Taub covers politics, government and elections, mainly in the Fresno/Clovis area. He also writes columns about local eateries (Appetite for Fresno), pro wrestling (Off the Bottom Rope), and media (Media Man). Prior to joining the online news source, Taub worked as a radio producer for KMJ and PowerTalk 96.7 in Fresno. He also worked as an assignment editor for KCOY-TV in Santa Maria, California, and KSEE-TV in Fresno. He has also worked behind the scenes for several sports broadcasts, including the NCAA basketball tournament, and the Super Bowl. When not spending time with his family, Taub loves to officially score Fresno Grizzlies games. Growing up in the San Francisco Bay Area, Taub is a die-hard Giants and 49ers fan. He graduated from the University of Michigan with dual degrees in communications and political science. Go Blue! You can contact David at 559-492-4037 or at Send an Email

EU Announces $1.8 Billion Aid Package for Palestinian Authority

25 minutes ago

How Trump Might Unwittingly Cut Emissions From Online Shopping

29 minutes ago

Trump Slams Fed’s Powell Over Rates, Saying Termination Can’t ‘Come Fast Enough’

35 minutes ago

Dollar, US Stocks Find Some Stability as Trade Talks Help the Mood

39 minutes ago

Merced’s Own Super Bloom Is Here. How This Grassland Reserve Protects Endangered Species

1 hour ago

ICE Smashes Car Window to Detain Asylum Seeker, Family Says

16 hours ago

Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs Seeks Two-Month Delay of May 5 Trial

16 hours ago

Temu and Shein Say They’re Raising Prices Due to Tariffs

16 hours ago

Actor Michelle Trachtenberg Died of Complications From Diabetes, Says NYC Medical Examiner

16 hours ago

AI Action Figures Flood Social Media (Accessories Included)

16 hours ago

Scientists Find Strongest Evidence yet of Life on an Alien Planet

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – In a potential landmark discovery, scientists using the James Webb Space Telescope have obtained what they call...

4 minutes ago

An illustration shows a hycean world – an exoplanet with a liquid water ocean beneath a hydrogen-rich atmosphere - orbiting a red dwarf star. Based on observations by the James Webb Space Telescope, the exoplanet K2-18 b might fit in this category. This illustration was obtained by Reuters on April 16, 2025. (A. Smith, N. Madhusudhan/University of Cambridge/Handout via REUTERS)
4 minutes ago

Scientists Find Strongest Evidence yet of Life on an Alien Planet

Los Angeles Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani watches his ball go out for a solo home run during the first inning of a baseball game against the Colorado Rockies Wednesday, April 16, 2025, in Los Angeles. (AP/Mark J. Terrill)
10 minutes ago

Ohtani Hits 448-Foot Homer in 7-Run 1st Inning, Dodgers Sweep Rockies

Ursula, GV Wire's Adoptable Pet of the Week, April 17, 2025
13 minutes ago

Ursula Is Beautiful, Athletic, and Seeking Your Companionship

25 minutes ago

EU Announces $1.8 Billion Aid Package for Palestinian Authority

Shein packages ready to be shipped from a factory in Guangzhou, China, in Feb. 12, 2025. Fast fashion retailers rely heavily on shipping by air. The president’s tariffs could change that. (Gilles Sabrié/The New York Times)
29 minutes ago

How Trump Might Unwittingly Cut Emissions From Online Shopping

President Donald Trump looks on as Jerome Powell, his nominee to become chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks at the White House in Washington, U.S., November 2, 2017. (REUTERS File)
35 minutes ago

Trump Slams Fed’s Powell Over Rates, Saying Termination Can’t ‘Come Fast Enough’

Pedestrians are reflected on a stock quotation board showing a graph of Nikkei share average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 14, 2025. (REUTERS File)
39 minutes ago

Dollar, US Stocks Find Some Stability as Trade Talks Help the Mood

1 hour ago

Merced’s Own Super Bloom Is Here. How This Grassland Reserve Protects Endangered Species

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend