Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

What’s Behind California’s Frozen Housing Market?

3 hours ago

Oil Prices Rise on Trade War Relief, US Pressure on Russia

4 hours ago

Marjorie Taylor Greene Is First Republican Lawmaker to Call Gaza Crisis a ‘Genocide’

6 hours ago

Trump’s EPA to Repeal Core of Greenhouse Gas Rules in Major Deregulatory Move

7 hours ago

US Approval of Israel’s Gaza Offensive Drops to 32%, Poll Shows

8 hours ago

Shooter in New York Skyscraper Left Note Blaming NFL for Brain Injury, Mayor Says

9 hours ago

Trump Eyes Aug 1 Trade Deals as EU, China Talks Continue, US Commerce Chief Says

9 hours ago

Trump Says Many Are Starving in Gaza, Vows to Set up Food Centers

1 day ago
Iran's Upcoming Elections Could Force a Nuclear Deal Now with US
GV-Wire-1
By gvwire
Published 4 years ago on
April 2, 2021

Share

Given the deadlock and the disappointing pace of movement in the first weeks of Biden’s term, news that the United States will be participating in next week’s meeting in Vienna between Iran and global partners towards reviving the JCPOA is more than welcome.

Opinion

Trita Parsi

Here is why: Privately, White House officials admit that they fumbled the Iran file early on (my words, not theirs). But the message we’re hearing now is that things have changed, and Washington is now moving full speed toward a JCPOA return. We are now seeing the first signs vindicating this narrative.

Over the past weeks, however, mistrust between the two sides has grown. The Iranians have watched in dismay how Biden has messaged that the JCPOA is not a priority, and how coordination with Israel and assuaging hawks in Congress was seemingly tantamount to getting talks started.

This left Tehran with the impression that either Biden wanted to use Trump’s maximum pressure sanctions as a bargaining chip, or that he simply didn’t have the will to pay the price of taking on the opponents of the JCPOA in the United States and the region. At the same time, the U.S. side saw a continuation of attacks in Iraq, a hardening of Iran’s public position, and escalatory nuclear moves, and speculated that perhaps the window had already closed, and that Tehran doesn’t want a return until after its presidential elections.

Already Exchanging Proposals

For the last few weeks, the two sides have indirectly exchanged proposals on how to break the deadlock. The U.S. proposals that have been mentioned in the media have all been lowballing the Iranians, which appears to have made matters worse. Driving a hard bargain under these circumstances only further depletes trust and is counterproductive to the intermediate objective — starting direct talks. Indeed, from the outset, it was a mistake to turn what should have been a coordination into a negotiation.

So why the breakthrough now? I suspect Washington has wisely, behind the scenes, put forward a more robust proposal. No more lowballs. I doubt that when Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov spoke of “positive movements” on the U.S. side, he was referring to the lowball proposals.

Nor would Iran — given its political circumstances — likely agree to this meeting next week unless something more robust was on the table. Moreover, U.S. officials have told the New York Times that they will “not seek to retain some sanctions for leverage” a la Trump.

That way, the JCPOA will be resurrected and protected before the Iranian elections — and not subject to the outcome of the elections. This clearly lies in the national interest of the United States —  as Joe Biden himself has made clear numerous times.

This would jive with the most important breakthrough in the history of the JCPOA — the one secured in Oman in March 2013. I detail this here in “Losing an Enemy.” This was where the real JCPOA talks began, and it was secured by the United States putting acceptance of enrichment in Iran on the table.

But the US managed to keep that secret for years. In fact, most journalists covering the issue have yet to fully acknowledge this, and have instead explained the breakthrough as a result of the sanctions squeeze on Iran.  It was a clever move by Washington to get real talks started, but also to avoid the backlash in D.C. over the fact that a major concession had been given to Iran. I wouldn’t be surprised if something similar happened here, but obviously on a much smaller scale.

But this is just the beginning of the process. As the Russian ambassador in Vienna said, “The impression is that we are on the right track but the way ahead will not be easy and will require intensive efforts.”

Iranians Want Quick Process for Political Reasons at Home

The question is what the choreography will look like now. The U.S. side prefers several coordinated steps that build to the final goal of full compliance-for-compliance. The Iranians prefer a quick, one-step process that immediately cuts to the chase. There are arguments for both approaches. But Tehran is in a bit more of a time crunch because of its elections. A dragged out process— just see how long it has taken to just get this meeting! —  will make it highly vulnerable to attacks by JCPOA opponents.

This is true on both sides, but mindful of the Iranian elections, it is particularly vulnerable to politicization in Iran. It is frankly better for the United States, in my humble opinion, that the process is quick, as the Iranian elections may cause a lot of unhelpful political posturing by Tehran.

The best thing is to get a quick choreography that binds both sides to full compliance, even though the steps may simply be binding decisions to do things within the next few weeks. The actual steps may be taken later, but the binding decision to take them will be made now.

That way, the JCPOA will be resurrected and protected before the Iranian elections — and not subject to the outcome of the elections. This clearly lies in the national interest of the United States —  as Joe Biden himself has made clear numerous times.

About the Author 

Trita Parsi is an award-winning author and the 2010 recipient of the Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. He is an expert on US-Iranian relations, Iranian foreign politics, and the geopolitics of the Middle East. He is the author of Losing an Enemy – Obama, Iran and the Triumph of Diplomacy

This article was originally published by Responsible Statecraft

[activecampaign form=19] 

 

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

New York Gunman Was Flagged by Security Camera System Before Attack, Sources Say

DON'T MISS

As Trump Cuts Education, Candidates Line Up for California’s Top Schools Job

DON'T MISS

US House Panel Rejects Immunity Request by Epstein Associate Maxwell

DON'T MISS

Fresno’s Vacant Property Ordinance Punishes the Wrong People: Rassamni

DON'T MISS

Trump Approval Rating Sinks to 40%, the Lowest of His Term, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Finds

DON'T MISS

What’s Behind California’s Frozen Housing Market?

DON'T MISS

Tulare County Authorities Find Body in Sequoia National Park

DON'T MISS

Oil Prices Rise on Trade War Relief, US Pressure on Russia

DON'T MISS

Scottie Scheffler vs. Everybody: Open Champion Makes His Case Among the Greats

DON'T MISS

Trump Says Wall Street Journal, Murdoch Want to Settle Defamation Lawsuit

UP NEXT

PBS Has a Future by Leaving the Past Behind: Opinion

UP NEXT

Israeli Columnist Alleges Ethnic Cleansing Plan in Gaza

UP NEXT

No One Controls MAGA, not Even Trump. The Epstein Files Prove It

UP NEXT

A Pro-Trump Community Reckons With Losing a Beloved Immigrant Neighbor

UP NEXT

Why American Jews No Longer Understand One Another

UP NEXT

Masked Raids and Impersonators Driving Force Behind Terror Campaign Across Nation

UP NEXT

I’m Not Leaving Measure C and COG Can’t Make Me: Brooke Ashjian

UP NEXT

I’m a Genocide Scholar. I Know It When I See It.

UP NEXT

California Is Finally Adopting Phonics, Fulfilling a Grandmother’s Dream

UP NEXT

New CA Budget Papers Over $20 Billion Deficit, Ignores Day of Reckoning

Fresno’s Vacant Property Ordinance Punishes the Wrong People: Rassamni

2 hours ago

Trump Approval Rating Sinks to 40%, the Lowest of His Term, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Finds

2 hours ago

What’s Behind California’s Frozen Housing Market?

3 hours ago

Tulare County Authorities Find Body in Sequoia National Park

4 hours ago

Oil Prices Rise on Trade War Relief, US Pressure on Russia

4 hours ago

Scottie Scheffler vs. Everybody: Open Champion Makes His Case Among the Greats

5 hours ago

Trump Says Wall Street Journal, Murdoch Want to Settle Defamation Lawsuit

5 hours ago

New York Officer Killed in Manhattan Shooting Remembered as Hero in Bangladesh, US

5 hours ago

More Than 100 NFL Players and Club Employees Face Fines for Selling Super Bowl Tickets

5 hours ago

US States Sue Over Trump Demands for Data on Food Stamp Recipients

5 hours ago

New York Gunman Was Flagged by Security Camera System Before Attack, Sources Say

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK — Cameras at 345 Park Avenue flagged an approaching gunman on Monday as a potential threat that required immediate atten...

29 minutes ago

A man holding a rifle walks into an office building at 345 Park Avenue shortly before a shooting that killed several people, in the Midtown Manhattan district of New York City, U.S. July 28, 2025, in a still image taken from surveillance video. Surveillance Camera/Handout via REUTERS
29 minutes ago

New York Gunman Was Flagged by Security Camera System Before Attack, Sources Say

Teacher Uses Globe While Instructing Her Students
1 hour ago

As Trump Cuts Education, Candidates Line Up for California’s Top Schools Job

Jeffrey Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell stands at the podium to address Judge Alison Nathan during her sentencing in a courtroom sketch in New York City, U.S. June 28, 2022. (Reuters File)
2 hours ago

US House Panel Rejects Immunity Request by Epstein Associate Maxwell

2 hours ago

Fresno’s Vacant Property Ordinance Punishes the Wrong People: Rassamni

President Donald Trump speaks at a dinner with Republican Senators, in the State Dining Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 18, 2025. (Reuters File)
2 hours ago

Trump Approval Rating Sinks to 40%, the Lowest of His Term, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Finds

Home in Fresno, California's Tower District
3 hours ago

What’s Behind California’s Frozen Housing Market?

The body of a woman swept into the Kaweah River in May was recovered last week by Tulare County authorities and the National Park Service. (Tulare County SO)
4 hours ago

Tulare County Authorities Find Body in Sequoia National Park

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S., November 22, 2019. (REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo)
4 hours ago

Oil Prices Rise on Trade War Relief, US Pressure on Russia

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend