Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
Walters: GOP Congressional Wins Set Stage for 2022
dan_walters
By Dan Walters, CalMatters Commentary
Published 4 years ago on
December 2, 2020

Share

It is remarkable — even amazing — that as Democrat Joe Biden rang up a nearly 2-to-1 victory over Republican President Donald Trump in California this year, Trump’s party regained four of the seven congressional seats it lost two years ago.

California’s outcome was a big share of the Democrats’ nationwide loss of congressional seats that reduced them to a bare majority.

Dan Walters

Opinion

The GOP comeback was solidified this week when the last few votes were counted in the 25th Congressional District, one of the state’s most contentious political arenas in suburban Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

In 2018, Democrat Katie Hill ousted Republican Congressman Steve Knight in the 25th district, one of seven GOP-held seats to flip that year in a wave of anti-Trump voting. But Hill became enmeshed in a scandal over her personal conduct and resigned.

Republican Mike Garcia, a former Navy pilot, recaptured the seat for the GOP in a special election, defeating Democratic Assemblywoman Christy Smith, and the two squared off again this year. This week, in the final count, Garcia eked out a paper-thin victory, just a few hundred votes.

Two of the GOP’s congressional comeback wins came in Orange County, where Republicans Young Kim and Michelle Steel defeated one-term Democrats Gil Cisneros and Harley Rouda.

The Fourth Republican Comeback Was in the San Joaquin Valley’s 21st Congressional District

Historically, the county has been solid Republican territory but Democrats have been making inroads lately. Democrat Hillary Clinton won it in 2016, the first Democrat to do so in 80 years, and Biden won it this year.

The fourth Republican comeback was in the San Joaquin Valley’s 21st Congressional District, where former Congressman David Valadao narrowly defeated Democrat TJ Cox, who had ousted Valadao two years earlier.

Of course, what happened this year merely sets the stage for 2022’s election, when Trump will be gone and outcomes will be even less predictable.

For one thing, we don’t even know how many seats California will have after the 2020 census is complete.

Demographers believe it’s likely that California’s slow population growth could reduce its allotment, now 53 seats, by one or two. However, it could lose even more if the U.S. Supreme Court, in a case that was argued just this week, supports Trump’s position that undocumented immigrants should be excluded from congressional seat calculations.

California is home to as many as three million undocumented immigrants and traditionally the decennial census has included them, along with citizens and legal immigrants, in the complete count used to determine the number of each state’s congressional seats.

We Do Know That California Will Play a Significant Role in Determining Which Party Controls Congress

Were undocumented residents excluded, it would translate into roughly three fewer seats for California, on top of the one or two seats the state might lose due to its overall slow population growth.

That’s why California Attorney General Xavier Becerra has joined the Supreme Court battle over Trump’s directive.

“For hundreds of years, the U.S. Constitution has been clear: everyone counts,” Becerra said in a statement. “Here in California, we know that fundamental value extends beyond the census. No matter the color of your skin or where you come from, you count.”

However many seats California winds up having, their districts will be redrawn by a 14-member independent commission with five Democrats, five Republicans and four independents, and its first foray into redistricting a decade ago proved that its actions are not predictable.

We may not know how many congressional seats California will have in 2022, and we don’t know the shape of those districts. However, we do know that California will, as it did in 2018 and this year, play a significant role in determining which party controls Congress.

[activecampaign form=19]

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

Fresno Unified Substitute Teacher Arrested in Online Child Exploitation Case

DON'T MISS

Investors Buy Fig Garden Village. How Much Did It Sell For?

DON'T MISS

Fresno County DA Wants Teens Tried as Adults in Caleb Quick Murder

DON'T MISS

State Farm Wins First-Ever Emergency Rate Hike in California

DON'T MISS

Work Permits Reinstated for UC Merced International Students, Anxiety Persists

DON'T MISS

Tatum to Miss Remainder of Playoffs After Achilles Tendon Surgery

DON'T MISS

Fresno Police Seek Public’s Help Identifying Shooting Suspect

DON'T MISS

MLB Reinstates Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson, Making Them Hall of Fame Eligible

DON'T MISS

Karbassi Running for Fresno County Elections Clerk, Says He Can ‘Do Better’

DON'T MISS

Global Eggs Completes Acquisition in US, Closes New Deal in Europe

UP NEXT

How Real ID Can Exclude ‘Real’ Americans From Flying, Voting and More

UP NEXT

What the World Needs From Pope Leo

UP NEXT

Today Harvard Is the Target. Tomorrow It Could Be Your Church.

UP NEXT

Jerry Springer — Yes, That Jerry Springer — Can Save the Democrats

UP NEXT

Other States Are Showing California How to Protect Its Budget Without Cutting Needed Services

UP NEXT

State Bar’s Botched Exam for New Lawyers Is CA’s Latest Entry to the Hall of Shame

UP NEXT

I Applaud Fresno Unified’s New Focus, but the Plan Needs Work

UP NEXT

Iran’s Leader Hopes America Can Save His Faltering Regime

UP NEXT

Clash Over Teen Sex Solicitation Reveals the Rift Within CA Democratic Party

UP NEXT

This Is the Moment of Moral Reckoning in Gaza

State Farm Wins First-Ever Emergency Rate Hike in California

12 hours ago

Work Permits Reinstated for UC Merced International Students, Anxiety Persists

13 hours ago

Tatum to Miss Remainder of Playoffs After Achilles Tendon Surgery

13 hours ago

Fresno Police Seek Public’s Help Identifying Shooting Suspect

13 hours ago

MLB Reinstates Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson, Making Them Hall of Fame Eligible

13 hours ago

Karbassi Running for Fresno County Elections Clerk, Says He Can ‘Do Better’

13 hours ago

Global Eggs Completes Acquisition in US, Closes New Deal in Europe

15 hours ago

‘I Never Said He Called My Son the N-Word.’ Fresno Unified Trustee Thomas Tries to Erase Accusation Against Former Bullard Coach

16 hours ago

UnitedHealth Group CEO Steps Down as Company Lowers, Then Withdraws Financial Outlook for 2025

16 hours ago

FDA and RFK Jr. Aim to Remove Ingestible Fluoride Products Used to Protect Kids’ Teeth

16 hours ago

Fresno Unified Substitute Teacher Arrested in Online Child Exploitation Case

A 43-year-old Fresno man identified as a certified substitute teacher with the Fresno Unified School District has been arrested for allegedl...

8 hours ago

https://www.communitymedical.org/thecause?utm_source=Misfit+Digital&utm_medium=GVWire+Banner+Ads&utm_campaign=Branding+2025&utm_content=thecause
Carlos Gonzalez, 43, of Fresno, a substitute teacher at Fresno Unified School District has been arrested for allegedly attempting to meet a minor for sex after contacting the child through a messaging app, prompting authorities to urge potential victims to come forward. (Fresno County SO)
8 hours ago

Fresno Unified Substitute Teacher Arrested in Online Child Exploitation Case

11 hours ago

Investors Buy Fig Garden Village. How Much Did It Sell For?

Fresno clovis caleb quick
12 hours ago

Fresno County DA Wants Teens Tried as Adults in Caleb Quick Murder

12 hours ago

State Farm Wins First-Ever Emergency Rate Hike in California

13 hours ago

Work Permits Reinstated for UC Merced International Students, Anxiety Persists

13 hours ago

Tatum to Miss Remainder of Playoffs After Achilles Tendon Surgery

Fresno police are seeking help identifying a suspect caught on video after a shooting near First Street and Belmont Avenue left one person injured on Sunday. May 11, 2025. (Fresno PD)
13 hours ago

Fresno Police Seek Public’s Help Identifying Shooting Suspect

13 hours ago

MLB Reinstates Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson, Making Them Hall of Fame Eligible

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend