According to the mathematicians at, Democrat Joe Biden is slightly favored to defeat President Donald Trump in November.

In 40,000 simulations based on current polling run by, Biden wins 69% of the time.

Nine States Will Decide Electoral College Outcome

However, as of today, November’s outcome hinges on what happens in nine states where Trump and Biden are waging highly competitive races.

Six of the nine are traditional battleground states: Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennslyvania, and Wisconsin.

The other three up for grabs are Arizona, Georgia, and Minnesota.

Check out what fivethirtyeight’s Nate Silver and his team are saying today about the election at this link.


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