Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

West Bank Town Becomes ‘Big Prison’ as Israel Fences It In

2 days ago

Trump Says He’s Willing to Let Migrant Farm Laborers Stay in US

2 days ago

US Electric Vehicle Tax Breaks Will Expire on Sept. 30

3 days ago

Eyeing Arctic Dominance, Trump Bill Earmarks $8.6 Billion for US Coast Guard Icebreakers

3 days ago

Trump’s Sweeping Tax-Cut and Spending Bill Wins Congressional Approval

3 days ago

Americans Celebrate Their Independence With Record-Breaking Travel Numbers

3 days ago

US Supreme Court to Decide Legality of Transgender School Sports Bans

3 days ago

Nvidia Set to Become the World’s Most Valuable Company in History

3 days ago

Poll: 41% in US ‘Extremely Proud’ to Be American, Near Historic Low

3 days ago
Trump has 91% Chance of Winning Election, Model Predicts
News
By News
Published 5 years ago on
August 13, 2020

Share

[aggregation-styles]

The PRIMARY MODEL gives President Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 presidential election, with Democrat Joe Biden having just a 9% chance. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176. This forecast is unconditional and final; hence not subject to any updating. It was first posted March 2, 2020, on Twitter.

In 2016, when polls, pundits and forecasters were all predicting a certain victory for Hillary Clinton, the PRIMARY MODEL was practically alone in predicting Donald Trump’s victory. It did so as early as March 7 that year, putting his chance of winning at 87%. http://primarymodel.com/2016-forecast-full.

It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and, in addition, on an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election. This year the model has been calibrated to predict the Electoral College vote.

For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner of 25 out of 27 elections since 1912, when presidential primaries were introduced. The misses are 1960, one of the closest presidential elections, and 2000, when the late count in Florida handed Bush the victory; still Al Gore wound up winning the popular vote.

Read More →

RELATED TOPICS:

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

How Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Will Make China Great Again

DON'T MISS

What’s Caitlin Clark Worth to the WNBA? A Lot More Than Her $78,066 Salary.

DON'T MISS

Trump to Sign Tax-Cut and Spending Bill in July 4 Ceremony

DON'T MISS

Madre Fire Spurs Evacuations Across 3 Counties, Grows to More Than 70,000 Acres

DON'T MISS

Clovis, Sanger, Madera, and Bass Lake Will Light the Sky With Fireworks Shows Tonight

DON'T MISS

Oil Dips Ahead of Expected OPEC+ Output Increase

DON'T MISS

613 Killed at Gaza Aid Distribution Sites, Near Humanitarian Covoys, Says UN

DON'T MISS

Fresno County Authorities Investigating Suspicious Death of Transient Man

DON'T MISS

West Bank Town Becomes ‘Big Prison’ as Israel Fences It In

DON'T MISS

Israeli Military Kills 20 in Gaza as Trump Awaits Hamas Reply to Truce Proposal

UP NEXT

Zohran Mamdani Officially Wins Democratic Primary for New York City Mayor

UP NEXT

Gavin Newsom Finally Admits He’s Contemplating a Run for President

UP NEXT

5 Takeaways From the Democrats’ Final NYC Mayoral Debate

UP NEXT

US Judge Blocks Trump Administration From Overhauling Federal Elections

UP NEXT

Trans Athlete Competes in California Championships in Clovis Despite National Controversy

UP NEXT

Tim Walz Urges Democrats to Fight Back Harder Against ‘Bully’ Trump

UP NEXT

Republican Tuberville Announces Bid for Alabama Governor

UP NEXT

Why Kamala Harris Could Run for California Governor and Bypass Another White House Bid

UP NEXT

CA Gov. Gavin Newsom Tries to Rebrand Himself Ahead of Potential Presidential Run

UP NEXT

Democrats Seeking California Governorship Strut Their Stuff for Union Leaders

Madre Fire Spurs Evacuations Across 3 Counties, Grows to More Than 70,000 Acres

2 days ago

Clovis, Sanger, Madera, and Bass Lake Will Light the Sky With Fireworks Shows Tonight

2 days ago

Oil Dips Ahead of Expected OPEC+ Output Increase

2 days ago

613 Killed at Gaza Aid Distribution Sites, Near Humanitarian Covoys, Says UN

2 days ago

Fresno County Authorities Investigating Suspicious Death of Transient Man

2 days ago

West Bank Town Becomes ‘Big Prison’ as Israel Fences It In

2 days ago

Israeli Military Kills 20 in Gaza as Trump Awaits Hamas Reply to Truce Proposal

2 days ago

Valley Crime Stoppers’ Most Wanted Person of the Day: Rachelle Maria Blanco

2 days ago

Russia Pounds Kyiv With Largest Drone Attack, Hours After Trump-Putin Call

2 days ago

Boxer Chavez Jr Expected to Be Deported to Mexico to Serve Sentence, Mexican President Says

2 days ago

How Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Will Make China Great Again

Can you hear it — that loud roar coming from the East? It’s the sound of 1.4 billion Chinese laughing at us. Thomas L. Friedman The New Yo...

20 hours ago

Solar Farm in Riesel, Texas
20 hours ago

How Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Will Make China Great Again

Caitlin Clark Signs T-Shirt
20 hours ago

What’s Caitlin Clark Worth to the WNBA? A Lot More Than Her $78,066 Salary.

President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 12, 2025. (Reuters File)
2 days ago

Trump to Sign Tax-Cut and Spending Bill in July 4 Ceremony

The Madre Fire burning near New Cuyama has scorched 70,801 acres as of Friday, July 4, 2025, afternoon, making it California’s largest wildfire of the year, with only 10% containment and multiple evacuation zones in place. (CalFire)
2 days ago

Madre Fire Spurs Evacuations Across 3 Counties, Grows to More Than 70,000 Acres

2 days ago

Clovis, Sanger, Madera, and Bass Lake Will Light the Sky With Fireworks Shows Tonight

A pumpjack operates at the Vermilion Energy site in Trigueres, France, June 14, 2024. (Reuters File)
2 days ago

Oil Dips Ahead of Expected OPEC+ Output Increase

Palestinians gather to collect what remains of relief supplies from the distribution center of the U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, June 5, 2025. (Reuters File)
2 days ago

613 Killed at Gaza Aid Distribution Sites, Near Humanitarian Covoys, Says UN

Billy Wayne Sinisgalli, a 54-year-old transient known locally as Wayne, was found dead along a rural Fresno road Wednesday in what authorities are investigating as a suspicious death. (Fresno County SO)
2 days ago

Fresno County Authorities Investigating Suspicious Death of Transient Man

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend