Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
Los Angeles Study Suggests Virus Much More Widespread
gvw_ap_news
By Associated Press
Published 5 years ago on
April 21, 2020

Share

LOS ANGELES — An estimated 320,000 adults in Los Angeles County may have been infected with coronavirus, according to preliminary results of a study that suggests the illness is far more widespread than current testing shows and the death rate is much lower.

The study conducted April 10-11 by the county and the University of Southern California estimated that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population of 8 million has antibodies to the virus. When adjusted for margin of error, the infection rate ranged from 2.8% to 5.6%, or about 220,000 to 440,000 adults.

The study conducted April 10-11 by the county and the University of Southern California estimated that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population of 8 million has antibodies to the virus. When adjusted for margin of error, the infection rate ranged from 2.8% to 5.6%, or about 220,000 to 440,000 adults.

The study, which was criticized by some outside experts, follows other research that has suggested more people have had coronavirus than previously determined through testing — many without symptoms or without feeling ill enough to seek a test. But it also means that more people have been silent carriers of the virus that has killed more than 1,200 people in California.

Public health officials emphasized that the results do not mean people should stop practicing social distancing and should assume that most people are still susceptible to the virus.

“Given the high rate of people that may have been infected at some point with COVID-19, we need to assume that at any point in time that we could be infected and that all the other people that we come in contact with could also be infected,” Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said.

The study was similar to one conducted among 3,300 Santa Clara County residents in early April that estimated 48,000 and 81,000 of the county’s 1.9 million people — a range of 2.5% to 4.2% — had been infected.

The Santa Clara study that used some of the same researchers as USC was heavily criticized for its methodology, which recruited volunteers on social media. The test it used — the same one used by USC — was criticized as unreliable for producing false negative or positive results.

Dr. Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research, said the tests are not well validated and they overestimate the number of people who have been infected. Some may conclude that if that many people have been infected without symptoms severe enough to seek a test or medical attention, it’s not a major threat.

[covid-19-tracker]

At the Time the Testing Was Conducted, the County Had Reported Nearly 8,000 Cases

“The problem is they’ve given a false sense that this is not a bad virus after all,” Topol said. “It’s bad math, bad tests and bad outcomes for the confusion that it engenders.”

Unlike the Santa Clara study, USC used subjects representative of the county population who were part of a market research firm database. Neither study was peer-reviewed, a critical step to publication.

Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at University of California, San Francisco, said a lot of coronavirus research results are being released prematurely. While he doesn’t think the results will influence decisions to let people return to work, they could be problematic.

“This is the time when ultra-critical decisions are being made,” Rutherford said. “It could come down to something someone hangs their hat on and it turns out it’s not peer reviewed … and hyped … and you reach an erroneous conclusion.”

Until the study results were announced, Los Angeles had been relying on testing people who are sick or have symptoms of the virus to determine the rate of infection. But that statistic is biased because only a limited number of people can get the test and many people are believed to be asymptomatic or could have symptoms consistent with the flu or colds also prevalent this time of year.

At the time the testing was conducted, the county had reported nearly 8,000 cases, meaning that the actual number was probably 28 to 55 times higher and the fatality rate was much lower than that based on the number of people tested.

“The fatality rate is not the only number we should focus on,” said Neeraj Sood, a USC professor of public policy. “What the findings show is that only 4% of our population has been infected, which means we are very early on in the epidemic and many more people in LA County could potentially be infected. And as those number of infections rise, so will the number of deaths, the number of hospitalizations and the number of ICU admissions.”

Testing Has Been Problematic Around the Globe With a Shortage of Supplies

As of Monday, the county had 13,816 cases out of 80,000 people tested, or 13% positive, the county reported. The county had more than 600 deaths, which accounts for about half the state’s total. The county has 10 million residents, or a quarter of the state’s population.

As of Monday, the county had 13,816 cases out of 80,000 people tested, or 13% positive, the county reported. The county had more than 600 deaths, which accounts for about half the state’s total. The county has 10 million residents, or a quarter of the state’s population.

Testing has been problematic around the globe with a shortage of supplies to collect and transport samples and not enough protective clothing for people who administer the test. Gov. Gavin Newsom and officials around the U.S. have said more robust testing and the ability to track people who may have been infected by each person who tests positive is key to lifting restrictions on leaving home.

Officials are also trying to get a better sense of how widespread the virus might be among homeless people.

Los Angeles began sending medical teams to the streets Monday to provide homeless people with health screenings and fast-result tests for the virus.

A line snaked down the block at a new pop-up testing clinic on Skid Row that’s staffed by the Los Angeles Fire Department. Those who are infected will be offered transportation to makeshift shelters or hotels where they can be treated while staying isolated.

At least 47 homeless people have tested positive for COVID-19 in Los Angeles County, health authorities said. A dozen of those were unsheltered. There are investigations at eight homeless shelters to determine if any staff or residents need to be quarantined.

California had over 33,000 reported cases Monday and 1,225 deaths, according to a Johns Hopkins University tally.

For most people, the coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough that clear up in two to three weeks. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia and death. The vast majority of people recover.

RELATED TOPICS:

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

‘King of the Hill’ Voice Actor Jonathan Joss Fatally Shot Outside His Texas Home

DON'T MISS

Fresno County Crews Battle Active Wildfire in Yokuts Valley, Evacuation Warning Issued

DON'T MISS

Not Quite ‘Hunger Games,’ but Fresno Budget Hearings Start

DON'T MISS

Clovis CPA Sentenced to Prison for $800K Bank Fraud Scheme

DON'T MISS

His Gang Name Is ‘Goer.’ Now Fresno County Man Is Going to Prison for 20 Years

DON'T MISS

Missing Woman Found Dead in Fresno County Canal Identified

DON'T MISS

Co-Conspirator Sentenced in Fraud Involving Loans to Bitwise

DON'T MISS

Valley Crime Stoppers’ Most Wanted Person of the Day: Stephanie Marie Zamarripa

DON'T MISS

Why Trump Is Mad at ‘Sleazebag’ Leonard Leo

DON'T MISS

Trump Amplifies Outlandish Robot Biden Conspiracy Theory

UP NEXT

Trans Athlete in Political Storm Earns, and Shares, First Place in Event

UP NEXT

California Plans to Ban Most Plants Within 5 Feet of Homes for Wildfire Safety

UP NEXT

American Doctors Are Moving to Canada To Escape the Trump Administration

UP NEXT

Trump Trade War Has Already Had Huge Effect on California Ports

UP NEXT

How Gentrification Is Killing the Bus: California’s Rising Rents Are Pushing Out Commuters

UP NEXT

Loretta Swit, Emmy-winner Who Played Houlihan on Pioneering TV Series ‘M.A.S.H.,’ Has Died at 87

UP NEXT

Medicaid Work Rules Could Leave a Million Californians With No Health Insurance

UP NEXT

California Lawmaker Won’t Be Charged After Citation for Suspicion of Impaired Driving

UP NEXT

1 in 4 US Children Have Parents With Substance Use Disorder, Study Finds

UP NEXT

Dozens Sickened in Expanding Salmonella Outbreak Linked to Recalled Cucumbers

Clovis CPA Sentenced to Prison for $800K Bank Fraud Scheme

8 hours ago

His Gang Name Is ‘Goer.’ Now Fresno County Man Is Going to Prison for 20 Years

8 hours ago

Missing Woman Found Dead in Fresno County Canal Identified

8 hours ago

Co-Conspirator Sentenced in Fraud Involving Loans to Bitwise

8 hours ago

Valley Crime Stoppers’ Most Wanted Person of the Day: Stephanie Marie Zamarripa

8 hours ago

Why Trump Is Mad at ‘Sleazebag’ Leonard Leo

9 hours ago

Trump Amplifies Outlandish Robot Biden Conspiracy Theory

9 hours ago

Madera County Authorities Seek Public’s Help Locating Missing At-Risk Man

10 hours ago

Mattel Is Combining Film and Television Units to Create Mattel Studios

10 hours ago

Campbell’s Co. Says Sales Rise as More Americans Cook at Home

10 hours ago

‘King of the Hill’ Voice Actor Jonathan Joss Fatally Shot Outside His Texas Home

HOUSTON — Jonathan Joss, a voice actor best known for his work on the animated television series “King of the Hill,” was fatally shot near h...

7 hours ago

Photo of caution tape
7 hours ago

‘King of the Hill’ Voice Actor Jonathan Joss Fatally Shot Outside His Texas Home

Fresno County fire crews are battling a wildland blaze in Yokuts Valley near Rector Lane, where the RECTOR incident has burned 10 acres with the potential to spread to 100 on Monday, June 2, 2025. (CalFire)
7 hours ago

Fresno County Crews Battle Active Wildfire in Yokuts Valley, Evacuation Warning Issued

7 hours ago

Not Quite ‘Hunger Games,’ but Fresno Budget Hearings Start

Photo of a laptop with a Department of Justice logo on the screens
8 hours ago

Clovis CPA Sentenced to Prison for $800K Bank Fraud Scheme

8 hours ago

His Gang Name Is ‘Goer.’ Now Fresno County Man Is Going to Prison for 20 Years

8 hours ago

Missing Woman Found Dead in Fresno County Canal Identified

8 hours ago

Co-Conspirator Sentenced in Fraud Involving Loans to Bitwise

Stephanie Marie Zamarripa is Valley Crime Stoppers' Most Wanted Person of the Day for June 2, 2025. (Valley Crimes Stoppers)
8 hours ago

Valley Crime Stoppers’ Most Wanted Person of the Day: Stephanie Marie Zamarripa

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend