The University of Washington’s coronavirus projection model indicates that California will experience peak demand for critical hospital resources today.
The projection is based on the assumption that California keeps its social-distancing orders in place through May.
California Has Enough Beds, ICU Units
The university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation project that California will be able to accommodate the coronavirus demand for both beds (5,238) and intensive-care units (820). According to IHME data, the state will have 26,654 beds and 1,993 beds available. It additionally forecasts a need for 688 invasive ventilators.
The IHME forecast indicates that California will see the most coronavirus-related daily deaths on Wednesday at 66.
The Los Angeles Times coronavirus tracker reports 681 total deaths in the state, including 47 Sunday.
IHME projects 1,616 COVID-19 deaths by Aug. 4, 2020.
According to the IHME website, it has expanded from a core of three members to a staff of more than 300 today, with more than 2,000 global collaborators.
IHME received a 10-year, $279-million donation this year from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Gov. Newsom: ‘Give Us a Few More Weeks’
If current trends continue, it will hardly be a spike at all, said state officials, who have relied on estimates that California’s coronavirus toll would hit its apex in May.
Gov. Gavin Newsom and his team tempered their optimism over the latest state numbers on hospitalizations, intensive-care patients and deaths. Their expressed concern: If Californians do not continue to maintain physical distance and shelter in place, the tide could turn quickly.
“Let’s continue to hold the line and do this together,” Newsom said. “Give us a few more weeks to see where these trend lines go.”
(CalMatters contributed to this story.)