Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
Election Math: What Dyer Needs to Win Without Run-off
David Website Replacement
By David Taub, Senior Reporter
Published 5 years ago on
March 4, 2020

Share

There are about 80,000 ballots yet to be counted — 78,000 mail-in ballots, and 2,000 conditional registration/provisional ballots — Fresno County Elections Clerk Brandi Orth said Wednesday morning.
That’s after  116,867 ballots were counted Tuesday night.
So where does that leave the Fresno mayoral and city council District 4 races heading into Friday afternoon’s voting update?


Listen to this article:

Dyer Needs 44% of Remaining Votes

Photo of Jerry Dyer talking to his supporters at the Elbow Room
Jerry Dyer
While same-day registration may alter the final numbers, Orth reported 471,384 registered voters in the county, with 250,755 registered in Fresno. That is 53%.
While Orth could not say which areas those remaining ballots are from, assuming they are proportional to the overall county registration, 53% or 42,556, would be left to count from the city of Fresno.
After day one counting in the mayoral race, Jerry Dyer garnered 54% of the vote, holding a 10,522-vote lead over Andrew Janz.
To maintain a majority and avoid a runoff, Dyer would need 44% or better of the remaining vote in the seven-candidate field.
Janz said Wednesday on Twitter that he expected the race to result in a run-off.

Maxwell Needs 47%

Tyler Maxwell
In the District 4 race, which has 34,672 registered voters, Tyler Maxwell leads Nathan Alonzo 53%-47%, or 332 votes, after day one counting.
To maintain the majority in the two-candidate race (there were 17 write-in votes), Maxwell would need approximately 47% of the remaining vote to prevail. There are approximately 5,885 votes to be counted if everything is proportional.

Did New System Affect Turnout?

This is the first Fresno County election under the Voters Choice Act system. Instead of hundreds of neighborhood precincts open only on Election Day, 53 voting centers were spread throughout the county, along with 43 drop boxes. The centers were open for early voting four-to-ten days before the election.
Additionally, every registered voter received a vote-by-mail ballot automatically. Before, only those who requested absentee ballots received them through the mail. Plus, all mail-in ballots could be returned postage-free.
With approximately 80,000 ballots to be added to the final count, that would mean 196,867 voted countywide, or a 41.8% turnout.
In the 2016 presidential primary, 169,333 or 40.8%, turned out. In the 2018 non-presidential primary, 136,388, or 31%, voted.
The VCA model increased the election costs $131,477 over the regular precinct model, with one-time additional costs of $319,000. It also provided a one-time savings of $1.6 million because the county had fewer voting locations.

DON'T MISS

Pope Francis in Critical Condition After Long Respiratory Crisis

DON'T MISS

Musk Gives All Federal Workers 48 Hours to Explain What They Did Last Week

DON'T MISS

Fresno State Suspends 2 Players, Removes Another Amid Gambling Investigation

DON'T MISS

Israel Delays Release of Palestinian Prisoners, Citing ‘Degrading’ Hostage Handovers

DON'T MISS

Officer Killed After Gunman Took Hostages at Pennsylvania Hospital

DON'T MISS

Kash Patel Plans to Move Up to 1,500 Workers Out of Washington

DON'T MISS

Fired Employees Fear Beloved Yosemite National Park Will Lose Its Luster

DON'T MISS

US and Ukraine Nearing Rare Earths Deal That Would Tighten Relationship

DON'T MISS

Trump Fires Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Two Other Military Officers

DON'T MISS

Less Is More: 5 Ingredient Dinners Are Easier Than You Think

UP NEXT

Rate the SE Fresno City Council Candidates Before You Vote

UP NEXT

Voletta Wallace, Notorious B.I.G.’s Mother and Keeper of His Legacy, Dies at 78

UP NEXT

Bullard Teacher Arrested for Inappropriate Behavior With a Minor, Principal Says

UP NEXT

Nearly 1 in 10 U.S. Adults Identifies as LGBTQ+, Survey Finds

UP NEXT

Will Soria Run for State Senate Instead of Assembly?

UP NEXT

Arctic Blast Causes Massive Pileups, Power Outages Across East Coast

UP NEXT

Struggling Forever 21 Plans to Close 200 Stores in Possible 2nd Bankruptcy

UP NEXT

2 People Are Dead in a Small Plane Collision at a Southern Arizona Airport

UP NEXT

Why Have CA Electric Rates Exploded? Report Blames ‘Runaway’ Spending by Utilities

UP NEXT

Maher’s Campaign for State Senate Is a Moving Experience

David Taub,
Senior Reporter
Curiosity drives David Taub. The award-winning journalist might be shy, but feels mighty with a recorder in his hand. He doesn't see it his job to "hold public officials accountable," but does see it to provide readers (and voters) the information needed to make intelligent choices. Taub has been honored with several writing awards from the California News Publishers Association. He's just happy to have his stories read. Joining GV Wire in 2016, Taub covers politics, government and elections, mainly in the Fresno/Clovis area. He also writes columns about local eateries (Appetite for Fresno), pro wrestling (Off the Bottom Rope), and media (Media Man). Prior to joining the online news source, Taub worked as a radio producer for KMJ and PowerTalk 96.7 in Fresno. He also worked as an assignment editor for KCOY-TV in Santa Maria, California, and KSEE-TV in Fresno. He has also worked behind the scenes for several sports broadcasts, including the NCAA basketball tournament, and the Super Bowl. When not spending time with his family, Taub loves to officially score Fresno Grizzlies games. Growing up in the San Francisco Bay Area, Taub is a die-hard Giants and 49ers fan. He graduated from the University of Michigan with dual degrees in communications and political science. Go Blue! You can contact David at 559-492-4037 or at Send an Email

Israel Delays Release of Palestinian Prisoners, Citing ‘Degrading’ Hostage Handovers

3 hours ago

Officer Killed After Gunman Took Hostages at Pennsylvania Hospital

3 hours ago

Kash Patel Plans to Move Up to 1,500 Workers Out of Washington

10 hours ago

Fired Employees Fear Beloved Yosemite National Park Will Lose Its Luster

10 hours ago

US and Ukraine Nearing Rare Earths Deal That Would Tighten Relationship

10 hours ago

Trump Fires Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Two Other Military Officers

10 hours ago

Less Is More: 5 Ingredient Dinners Are Easier Than You Think

10 hours ago

Trump-Putin Summit Preparations Are Underway, Russia Says

10 hours ago

Warren Buffett Offers Trump Some Advice While Celebrating Berkshire’s Success

10 hours ago

Hungarians Will Decide Whether Ukraine Can Join the European Union, Orbán Says

10 hours ago

Pope Francis in Critical Condition After Long Respiratory Crisis

ROME — Pope Francis was in critical condition Saturday after he suffered a prolonged asthmatic respiratory crisis while being treated for pn...

3 hours ago

3 hours ago

Pope Francis in Critical Condition After Long Respiratory Crisis

3 hours ago

Musk Gives All Federal Workers 48 Hours to Explain What They Did Last Week

3 hours ago

Fresno State Suspends 2 Players, Removes Another Amid Gambling Investigation

3 hours ago

Israel Delays Release of Palestinian Prisoners, Citing ‘Degrading’ Hostage Handovers

3 hours ago

Officer Killed After Gunman Took Hostages at Pennsylvania Hospital

10 hours ago

Kash Patel Plans to Move Up to 1,500 Workers Out of Washington

10 hours ago

Fired Employees Fear Beloved Yosemite National Park Will Lose Its Luster

10 hours ago

US and Ukraine Nearing Rare Earths Deal That Would Tighten Relationship

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend