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President Trump’s most consistent case for his own reelection is simple — it’s the economy, stupid. He points to a U.S. economy that is in reasonably good shape, though of course nowhere near the “best ever” he claims. Growth has averaged 2.5 percent, a bit higher than under Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush and a good bit lower than under Presidents Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan. Trump promised 4 percent growth, which never materialized. But that hasn’t stopped the great salesman from repeating the refrain “promises made, promises kept.”
In fact, the one area where Trump has most clearly failed to keep his promise is central to his ideology and appeal: the trade deficit. Trump campaigned relentlessly on the notion that America’s economy was being ruined by large trade deficits. (The United States imports more goods than it exports.) He promised on the campaign trail in June 2016, “You will see a drop like you’ve never seen before.”
In reality, the trade deficit has risen substantially under Trump. It was $503 billion in 2016 and grew to $628 billion in 2018, a 25 percent spike. (It fell slightly in 2019 to $617 billion.) ​
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