Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
Nunes' Reliably Red District Remains So, But Is Slipping
David Website Replacement
By David Taub, Senior Reporter
Published 5 years ago on
December 9, 2019

Share

Republican Devin Nunes has represented the Central Valley in Congress for the last 17 years, over nine terms. And, he’s running for his 10th term in 2020.
Recently released voter registration figures from the Secretary of State shows that the district remains red — but less so than in the past.


Listen to this article:

More voters are registering as Democrats in the reliably Republican district. Despite the surge, the overall demographics of CA-22 are similar to 2018, when Nunes prevailed in his closest race since beating fellow Republican Jim Patterson in the 2002 primary.

GOP Lead Overall, But Slightly Slipping

Registration figures released last month by the Secretary of State, show Republicans hold a 39%-32% advantage over Democrats, with no party preference voters at 23%. That is less than a 1% change from 2018, with the GOP losing 1%, while Democrats gained 0.45%.
In fact, overall Democratic registration is about the same as it was in 2016 at 32%. But, the party is trending upward in the two counties that represent the district.

(GV Wire/Alexis DeSha)
In Fresno County, which makes up 64% of the district, Democratic registration increased 5.7% from 2016 to 2019. In the same period, Republicans decreased by 1.7% (but rebounded by less than 1% from 2018 to 2019). No party preference has seen a dramatic increase, surging 22% over three years.
In Tulare County, which makes up 36% of the district, Democrats saw stronger three-year gains at 10%, compared to 3% for the GOP. Similar to Fresno County, more people are registering without a party, up 28% in three years.
(GV Wire/Alexis DeSha)
(GV Wire/Alexis DeSha)

2020 Race

Nunes, who never had much viable competition for reelection until 2018, defeated Fresno County prosecutor Andrew Janz by 5.4%. In the past, Nunes trounced opponents by double-digits.
Three Democrats have been actively campaigning for the 2020 election: health care administrator Bobby Bliatout, financial planner Phil Arballo, and businessman Dary Rezvani. The state Democratic party endorsed Bliatout at its convention last month.

(GV Wire/Alexis DeSha)

Converting Numbers to Votes

The plus-7 percentage point GOP advantage isn’t daunting, says Bliatout’s campaign manager, Tom Dallas. He likens it to the 2018 election when California Democrats Katie Porter and Harley Rouda won congressional seats despite a registration disadvantage.
“You concentrate on the growing surge of independent voters and finding the right candidate who appeals to that wide range of people. Devin Nunes has not been an efficient or competent congressman. He has been more focused on his career,” Dallas said.
Bliatout has the official endorsement of the state Democratic Party.
Meanwhile, Arballo says he isn’t focused on the registration numbers.
“It’s encouraging to see how the registration is changing, but our campaign isn’t concerned with party affiliation, we are focused on talking to everyone in the district about what makes me not only a unique candidate but the best candidate to represent our shared values in Congress,” Arballo said. “That is something that Democrats, Republicans, and no party preference voters can get behind.”

Not a Good Sign for Nunes

Fresno State political science professor Thomas Holyoke sees the changing CA-22 numbers as part of what is happening elsewhere in the state, especially in Orange County.
“It is a trend that cannot be good news for Congressman Nunes.  He certainly still has the advantage, but it means that his base has shrunk and he is going to have to work harder to make sure Republicans turn out to vote for him on election day,” Holyoke said.
Holyoke is unsure if the registration change is due to more Democrats moving to the district, Republicans moving out, or party switching.
The professor also sees the election as a referendum on how voters feel about Trump.
“If Republicans become disillusioned with the president, or even just tired of him, they are less likely to vote, and that would put Nunes’ seat in peril,” Holyoke said. “In sum, two things really matter — how fired up each side is, and how well-organized the two parties are for voter turnout in (the district).”
Graphics created by Alexis DeSha.

DON'T MISS

Republicans Target Social Sciences to Curb Ideas They Don’t Like

DON'T MISS

Gaetz Withdraws as Trump’s Pick for Attorney General

DON'T MISS

Fresno County Men Arrested in Armed Robbery Near Sanger High, Sanger Academy

DON'T MISS

Newsom Heads to Fresno, a County That Voted for Trump

DON'T MISS

Conservative Professors and Students Are Suing California’s Community Colleges, and Winning

DON'T MISS

How Trump Can Earn a Place in History That He Did Not Expect

DON'T MISS

Love Seeks Redemption as Packers Prepare for 49ers Rematch

DON'T MISS

Suspect Arrested After Oakhurst Crime Spree Leaves K9 Injured

DON'T MISS

Top War-Crimes Court Issues Arrest Warrants for Netanyahu and Hamas Officials

DON'T MISS

With or Without Lockridge, Can Bulldogs Get Out of Their Own Way to Become Bowl Eligible?

UP NEXT

Fresno County Men Arrested in Armed Robbery Near Sanger High, Sanger Academy

UP NEXT

Suspect Arrested After Oakhurst Crime Spree Leaves K9 Injured

UP NEXT

With or Without Lockridge, Can Bulldogs Get Out of Their Own Way to Become Bowl Eligible?

UP NEXT

This Kitty Seeks a Quiet Home to Call Her Own

UP NEXT

‘Woke’ Terminology Not Commonly Used by Americans: YouGov Survey

UP NEXT

Madera County Shooting Strikes K-9, Investigation Ongoing

UP NEXT

Republicans on House Ethics Reject for Now Releasing Report on Matt Gaetz

UP NEXT

Senate to Vote on Sanders’ Resolution to Block Arms Sales to Israel

UP NEXT

Texas Offers Trump Land on US-Mexico Border for Potential Mass Deportations

UP NEXT

Former Bitwise Employees Settle for $20 Million: Fresno Attorney

David Taub,
Senior Reporter
Curiosity drives David Taub. The award-winning journalist might be shy, but feels mighty with a recorder in his hand. He doesn't see it his job to "hold public officials accountable," but does see it to provide readers (and voters) the information needed to make intelligent choices. Taub has been honored with several writing awards from the California News Publishers Association. He's just happy to have his stories read. Joining GV Wire in 2016, Taub covers politics, government and elections, mainly in the Fresno/Clovis area. He also writes columns about local eateries (Appetite for Fresno), pro wrestling (Off the Bottom Rope), and media (Media Man). Prior to joining the online news source, Taub worked as a radio producer for KMJ and PowerTalk 96.7 in Fresno. He also worked as an assignment editor for KCOY-TV in Santa Maria, California, and KSEE-TV in Fresno. He has also worked behind the scenes for several sports broadcasts, including the NCAA basketball tournament, and the Super Bowl. When not spending time with his family, Taub loves to officially score Fresno Grizzlies games. Growing up in the San Francisco Bay Area, Taub is a die-hard Giants and 49ers fan. He graduated from the University of Michigan with dual degrees in communications and political science. Go Blue! You can contact David at 559-492-4037 or at Send an Email

Newsom Heads to Fresno, a County That Voted for Trump

49 minutes ago

Conservative Professors and Students Are Suing California’s Community Colleges, and Winning

1 hour ago

How Trump Can Earn a Place in History That He Did Not Expect

2 hours ago

Love Seeks Redemption as Packers Prepare for 49ers Rematch

2 hours ago

Suspect Arrested After Oakhurst Crime Spree Leaves K9 Injured

2 hours ago

Top War-Crimes Court Issues Arrest Warrants for Netanyahu and Hamas Officials

3 hours ago

With or Without Lockridge, Can Bulldogs Get Out of Their Own Way to Become Bowl Eligible?

6 hours ago

Classes for Cannabis? UC Merced Extension Launching Weed Workforce Training

6 hours ago

This Kitty Seeks a Quiet Home to Call Her Own

6 hours ago

‘Woke’ Terminology Not Commonly Used by Americans: YouGov Survey

6 hours ago

Republicans Target Social Sciences to Curb Ideas They Don’t Like

Several years ago, to attract more students, Jean Muteba Rahier spiced up the name of his introduction to the anthropology of religion cours...

3 minutes ago

3 minutes ago

Republicans Target Social Sciences to Curb Ideas They Don’t Like

35 minutes ago

Gaetz Withdraws as Trump’s Pick for Attorney General

36 minutes ago

Fresno County Men Arrested in Armed Robbery Near Sanger High, Sanger Academy

49 minutes ago

Newsom Heads to Fresno, a County That Voted for Trump

1 hour ago

Conservative Professors and Students Are Suing California’s Community Colleges, and Winning

President Donald Trump with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in Washington, Sept. 15, 2020. (Doug Mills/The New York Times)
2 hours ago

How Trump Can Earn a Place in History That He Did Not Expect

2 hours ago

Love Seeks Redemption as Packers Prepare for 49ers Rematch

A Mariposa man was arrested after a violent crime spree in Oakhurst, injuring a sheriff's K9 and prompting multiple investigations. (Instagram/FresnoDAIA))
2 hours ago

Suspect Arrested After Oakhurst Crime Spree Leaves K9 Injured

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend