Published
4 years agoon
The latest developments in California’s housing crisis are, as usual, mixed.
In September, according to the Legislature’s budget analyst, permits for 10,580 new housing units were issued, a 13% increase from August and a 40% boost from September 2018.
But as large as these amounts appear, they pale when placed in context.
Housing production in California is running at least 80,000 units a year below what the state says is necessary to keep up with population growth and make a dent in a very large backlog that has sent housing costs skyrocketing.
The state also calculates that building one unit of so-called “affordable” housing — available to low- and moderate-income families — costs about $350,000 statewide, and twice that much in the Bay Area.
So even using the average cost, increasing production by 80,000 units a year would require another $30 billion investment every year, not just the one-time injections from state bonds or high-tech employers.
Moreover, even if developers (and their bankers) are willing to put that kind of money into housing, they must clear several other hurdles, such as having land zoned, specific projects approved and, finally, recruiting enough carpenters, plumbers, electricians and other workers to build.
All of those hurdles are becoming higher, particularly those controlled by local governments whose constituents tend to oppose anything that will bring more traffic congestion and other downside factors to their neighborhoods.
Gov. Gavin Newsom at the California Democratic Convention in San Francisco on June 1. Photo by Ben Christopher for CALmatters.
The not-in-my-backyard sentiment is powerful. It explains, for instance, why cities successfully opposed legislation, Senate Bill 50, that would have overridden their much-cherished control over land use issues for some kinds of housing.
Dan Walters has been a journalist for nearly 60 years, spending all but a few of those years working for California newspapers. He has written more than 9,000 columns about the state and its politics and is the founding editor of the “California Political Almanac.” Dan has also been a frequent guest on national television news shows, commenting on California issues and policies.
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