Following a steep drop in August tied to heightened tariff concerns, consumer sentiment rebounded but only moderately in the September preliminary report to 92.0 which is up 2.2 points on the month but still 8 points lower than the recent high in May. And though the report stresses that consumers remain very concerned about tariffs, improvement in September is tangible showing a 1.6 point gain for the current conditions component to 106.9 and a 2.5 point rise for expectations to 82.4. Inflation expectations are mixed with the year-ahead outlook up 1 tenth to 2.8 percent and the often volatile 5-year outlook down 3 tenths at 2.6 percent.
Despite September’s general improvement, the headline index is still sitting at one of its very lowest readings of the last three years which, however, is an indication that is offset by still very solid readings from the rival consumer confidence report that unlike this report has held in very well on the strength of the labor market. Today’s report notes that consumers see interest rates coming down in a hint that they too expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates at next week’s FOMC.