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PHOENIX โ Itโs not just Democratic-leaning states at risk of losing federal money and clout in Congress if the Supreme Court says the upcoming census can include a citizenship question.
Fast-growing Arizona, Florida and Texas all have large groups of immigrants, especially Hispanics, who might choose to sit out the census, but are led by Republicans who seem unconcerned about the potential for an undercount and the resulting loss of representation in Congress.
Some Republicans Question Whether Immigrants Should be Counted
Republican lawmakers in several states with large immigrant populations praised the Trump administration for fighting to include the question and wondered whether immigrants should even be included in the count.
Florida state Sen. Joe Gruters, who also is chairman of the state Republican Party, said he wasnโt worried about the potential consequences of an undercount.
โI donโt care,โ he said. โItโs the right decision, and I fully support the president and what heโs trying to do.โ
He expects Florida will still pick up at least one seat because of rapid growth.
Supreme Court will Decide on Citizenship Question
The U.S. Supreme Court will decide soon whether to uphold the Trump administrationโs plan to ask about citizenship on census forms. There appeared to be a clear divide between the courtโs liberal and conservative justices in arguments in the case this past week, with conservatives holding a 5-4 majority.
Federal law requires people to complete the census accurately and fully. But Ceridwen Cherry, a lawyer on the American Civil Liberties Unionโs voting rights project, said including a citizenship question could contaminate the form for many people and result in an undercount.
โIf a citizenship question is added, immigrants and those who live in households that contain noncitizens are going to be more likely to not respond to the census at all,โ she said, โor respond and leave off noncitizens from the form.โ
The concern among certain immigrant groups โ particularly Hispanics and Muslims โ is driven by the Trump administrationโs oftentimes harsh rhetoric about immigration and fears that it will share the census data with immigration authorities. When an advisory committee asked the U.S. Census Bureau about that worry last year, officials responded by saying that breaking census confidentiality is a federal crime punishable by up to five years in prison.
Affect on Representation in Congress
Opponents of the citizenship question point to a study by George Washington University political scientist Chris Warshaw, who found that two or three states are likely to end up with fewer congressional seats than they otherwise would have because of a citizenship question. The most likely in that category are Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, New York and Texas.
In Michigan, a political swing state, the concern is that it could discourage participation among the large Arab American community.
Hassan Jaber, a former census advisory board member, is critical of the administrationโs citizenship question and of a decision against adding a Middle East-North Africa classification to the 2020 census.
He said including the citizenship question could affect federal funding for programs and services related to food, health and education. But heโs more troubled by the message it sends to Arab Americans and others.
โThe Trump administrationโs effort to suppress this recognition of this community sends signals of being unwelcome and to politicize the census โฆ and turn it against minority groups,โ said Jaber, CEO of ACCESS, a Detroit-area social services organization. โItโs really something that becomes much bigger than just the data on Arab Americans.โ
Studies Show Close to 10% May Skip Census
Matt Barreto, a UCLA professor who submitted testimony in court cases about the citizenship question, did polling that showed 7.1% to 9.7% of the population might skip the census if itโs added. He also found that nearly half of Californians donโt trust the Trump administration to keep the citizenship information out of the hands of other government agencies.
Conservatives generally support adding the citizenship question, even if it might suppress the total population count in their state.
โIf we would be entitled to another congressional seat, the question is, should we be entitled to it because we have more non-citizens living here that are not voters, or shouldnโt be voters?โ said Arizona Senate President Karen Fann.
Arizona Republican lawmaker John Fillmore said heโs not concerned about the fallout. He said he believes the stateโs explosive growth will ensure it doesnโt lose clout.
โI do not believe Arizonaโs going to lose a House seat in any way shape or form,โ he said.
In Texas, Republican state Rep. Phil King said there is bipartisan agreement that everyone should be counted. He said the state is likely to pick up seats in Congress because of its rapid population growth, but it will be a close call to determine how many.
Texas Civil Rights Project spokesman Zenen Jaimes Perez said the organization has not had any coordination with the state on making sure Hispanic communities are counted. Perez said the group has worked with city officials in Austin, Houston and San Antonio to host community forums about the census and the importance of filling it out.
Census data is used to divide the 435 U.S. House seats between 50 states and determine their clout in the Electoral College. Itโs also used to draw state legislative district maps and divvy up federal funding to states, cities and counties.
About Half of States Making โComplete Countโ Effort
About half the states have created โcomplete countโ commissions to coordinate grassroots efforts designed to convince people to complete their census forms, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Republican Gov. Doug Ducey of Arizona, who supports the citizenship question on the census, this month created a complete count committee to work on outreach.
He said the state stands to lose an estimated $887 in federal funding each year for every person who skips the count.
Ducey said the group will include people with expertise in reaching out to rural areas, tribes, universities, apartment dwellers, faith organizations, veterans and community organizations. Lawmakers are considering spending $5 million on the effort, a proposal that cleared the Senate nearly unanimously.
Ducey told Capitol Media Services earlier this month that asking about citizenship is โa fair questionโ to โget a handle of whoโs here, whoโs a citizen and whoโs not.โ
His spokesman, Patrick Ptak, declined to comment on the prospect of not gaining a House seat but said the census is a priority for the governorโs office.
Persuading people to respond to the Census requires explaining how itโs linked to funding for schools, hospitals and other services โ and making them know it would be illegal for the census to share individual information, said Vanita Gupta, president and CEO of The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights.
โAn army of lawyers will be ready in the worst-case scenario that there is some kind of nefarious action taken around census confidentiality,โ Gupta said.
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